Preseason Rankings
Rice
Conference USA
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#173
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#114
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#260
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.6% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.1 11.8 13.2
.500 or above 49.5% 64.4% 31.0%
.500 or above in Conference 46.4% 56.9% 33.4%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.9% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 4.5% 12.7%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round4.3% 6.3% 1.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 7
Quad 34 - 55 - 12
Quad 49 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 81-80 55%    
  Nov 12, 2021 13   @ Houston L 62-80 5%    
  Nov 16, 2021 317   Southern W 84-72 84%    
  Nov 19, 2021 298   @ New Orleans W 85-81 65%    
  Nov 22, 2021 198   Evansville W 71-69 55%    
  Nov 30, 2021 174   Texas St. W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 11, 2021 348   @ Houston Baptist W 90-78 85%    
  Dec 16, 2021 345   Incarnate Word W 81-65 91%    
  Dec 22, 2021 7   @ Texas L 67-86 6%    
  Jan 01, 2022 123   @ North Texas L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 06, 2022 267   Middle Tennessee W 81-72 76%    
  Jan 08, 2022 74   UAB L 72-77 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 100   @ Western Kentucky L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 15, 2022 118   @ Marshall L 79-86 30%    
  Jan 20, 2022 131   Old Dominion W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 178   Charlotte W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 27, 2022 93   @ Louisiana Tech L 72-81 24%    
  Jan 29, 2022 195   @ Southern Miss L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 03, 2022 207   Texas San Antonio W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 05, 2022 163   UTEP W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 12, 2022 123   North Texas L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 17, 2022 74   @ UAB L 69-80 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 273   @ Florida International W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 93   Louisiana Tech L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 195   Southern Miss W 76-71 64%    
  Mar 03, 2022 163   @ UTEP L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 05, 2022 207   @ Texas San Antonio L 81-82 47%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.5 0.6 0.1 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.9 1.1 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.3 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.5 1.0 0.1 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 6.7 13th
14th 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 14th
Total 0.3 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 8.1 9.7 10.5 10.8 10.3 9.8 8.0 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.7% 0.4    0.3 0.0 0.0
16-2 85.0% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 59.7% 1.2    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.6% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 87.8% 52.9% 34.9% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.0%
17-1 0.4% 74.5% 43.0% 31.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.3%
16-2 1.0% 52.7% 32.0% 20.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 30.4%
15-3 2.0% 32.4% 24.4% 8.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 10.6%
14-4 3.5% 21.3% 16.8% 4.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.8 5.4%
13-5 4.9% 14.6% 13.4% 1.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 1.4%
12-6 6.4% 8.5% 8.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.1%
11-7 8.0% 4.6% 4.6% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.7 0.1%
10-8 9.8% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6 0.0%
9-9 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2
8-10 10.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
7-11 10.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4
6-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 8.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.1
4-14 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 4.5% 3.7% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 95.5 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 48.1 25.9 25.9
Lose Out 0.0%