Preseason Rankings
Seton Hall
Big East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#41
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#250
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.6% 6.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.6% 15.8% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 25.6% 25.8% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.9% 51.4% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.2% 45.6% 9.3%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 9.1
.500 or above 71.2% 71.7% 24.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 65.3% 27.0%
Conference Champion 12.4% 12.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 5.2% 20.1%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 2.7%
First Round49.1% 49.5% 9.6%
Second Round31.4% 31.7% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen15.2% 15.3% 1.6%
Elite Eight7.1% 7.2% 0.8%
Final Four3.2% 3.3% 0.2%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 114 - 13
Quad 44 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 323   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-64 99%    
  Nov 14, 2021 126   Yale W 77-66 85%    
  Nov 16, 2021 2   @ Michigan L 64-74 19%    
  Nov 22, 2021 12   Ohio St. L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 28, 2021 350   Bethune-Cookman W 85-54 99%    
  Dec 01, 2021 228   Wagner W 78-60 93%    
  Dec 09, 2021 7   Texas L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 12, 2021 50   Rutgers W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 18, 2021 146   Iona W 74-64 78%    
  Dec 20, 2021 52   St. John's W 79-74 65%    
  Dec 23, 2021 112   @ DePaul W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 29, 2021 65   @ Providence L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 01, 2022 6   Villanova L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 04, 2022 64   @ Butler L 65-66 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 25   Connecticut W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 15, 2022 78   @ Marquette W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 18, 2022 65   Providence W 71-65 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 52   @ St. John's L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 26, 2022 78   Marquette W 73-66 71%    
  Feb 01, 2022 86   @ Georgetown W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 04, 2022 48   Creighton W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 09, 2022 37   Xavier W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 6   @ Villanova L 64-72 26%    
  Feb 16, 2022 25   @ Connecticut L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 19, 2022 112   DePaul W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 23, 2022 64   Butler W 69-63 67%    
  Feb 26, 2022 37   @ Xavier L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 02, 2022 86   Georgetown W 76-68 73%    
  Mar 05, 2022 48   @ Creighton L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.3 12.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.6 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.5 0.9 0.1 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.1 7.3 8.2 9.2 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.2 6.6 5.3 3.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 94.4% 2.2    2.0 0.3 0.0
17-3 79.8% 3.1    2.3 0.7 0.0
16-4 55.6% 3.0    1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 26.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 9.8% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 8.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 56.7% 43.3% 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 2.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.8% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 2.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.3% 99.7% 27.9% 71.9% 3.9 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 6.6% 99.1% 22.7% 76.4% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
14-6 8.2% 96.2% 16.0% 80.2% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 95.5%
13-7 9.1% 88.1% 11.8% 76.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 86.5%
12-8 9.4% 74.1% 8.0% 66.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 71.8%
11-9 9.4% 52.5% 5.5% 47.0% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.5 49.7%
10-10 9.2% 28.4% 3.5% 24.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.6 25.8%
9-11 8.2% 9.4% 1.7% 7.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.9%
8-12 7.3% 2.4% 0.9% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 1.6%
7-13 6.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.1%
6-14 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
5-15 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 3.6
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 50.9% 10.4% 40.5% 6.5 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 49.1 45.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.8 13.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 90.7 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0