Preseason Rankings
South Alabama
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#214
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.2#260
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#187
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#247
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 16.1% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.2 14.4
.500 or above 41.8% 76.4% 38.7%
.500 or above in Conference 51.5% 76.4% 49.2%
Conference Champion 7.1% 18.9% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 2.4% 10.1%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round6.2% 15.8% 5.4%
Second Round0.7% 2.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 8.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 413 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 54   @ Wichita St. L 62-77 8%    
  Nov 16, 2021 15   @ Alabama L 68-88 4%    
  Nov 25, 2021 170   San Diego L 71-74 41%    
  Dec 01, 2021 195   Southern Miss W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 04, 2021 164   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-72 31%    
  Dec 14, 2021 185   Tarleton St. W 67-66 54%    
  Dec 17, 2021 185   @ Tarleton St. L 64-69 35%    
  Dec 21, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 76-65 81%    
  Dec 30, 2021 224   @ Texas Arlington L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 01, 2022 174   @ Texas St. L 61-67 32%    
  Jan 06, 2022 182   Appalachian St. W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 08, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 13, 2022 121   Georgia St. L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 245   Georgia Southern W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 20, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 72-78 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 243   Troy W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 243   @ Troy L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 03, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 71-80 25%    
  Feb 10, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 12, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 17, 2022 190   @ Coastal Carolina L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 182   @ Appalachian St. L 64-69 35%    
  Feb 24, 2022 174   Texas St. W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 26, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 73-69 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 7.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 2.1 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.8 11th
12th 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.2 10.4 9.9 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.8% 1.5    1.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 73.2% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.8% 1.6    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 16.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 4.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 70.7% 57.8% 12.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 30.6%
17-1 0.7% 54.3% 46.8% 7.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14.1%
16-2 1.6% 39.0% 37.9% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.9%
15-3 2.8% 29.3% 29.0% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 0.5%
14-4 4.1% 22.4% 22.4% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.2 0.1%
13-5 5.7% 17.3% 17.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 4.7
12-6 7.4% 13.1% 13.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 6.4
11-7 8.8% 7.6% 7.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.1
10-8 9.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.4
9-9 10.4% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.1
8-10 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-11 9.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 9.6
6-12 8.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-13 7.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.1
4-14 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-15 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
2-16 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.5% 6.4% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.2 93.5 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%