IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.6	#283
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.0	#153
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.3	#250

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.3	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.2%	16.7%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.2	15.7

.500 or above	36.0%	59.6%	25.5%
.500 or above in Conference	54.9%	72.0%	47.3%
Conference Champion	9.4%	16.7%	6.2%
Last Place in Conference	8.8%	3.4%	11.2%

First Four	4.3%	5.1%	4.0%
First Round	8.1%	14.4%	5.4%
Second Round	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 5	2 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 8	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	238	@ George Washington	L	72-77	31%
Nov 18, 2021	34	@ Virginia Tech	L	60-81	3%
Nov 24, 2021	290	@ Cornell	L	72-75	41%
Nov 28, 2021	297	@ Lehigh	L	74-76	42%
Dec 01, 2021	294	Bucknell	W	79-75	62%
Dec 04, 2021	91	@ Ohio	L	68-84	10%
Dec 08, 2021	259	@ American	L	69-73	36%
Dec 14, 2021	213	@ Hartford	L	67-74	29%
Dec 18, 2021	8	@ Illinois	L	64-90	2%
Dec 22, 2021	282	Robert Morris	W	76-73	60%
Dec 29, 2021	228	Wagner	W	72-71	50%
Dec 31, 2021	323	Fairleigh Dickinson	W	82-76	69%
Jan 06, 2022	320	@ St. Francis Brooklyn	L	79-80	49%
Jan 08, 2022	254	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	76-80	36%
Jan 15, 2022	234	@ Merrimack	L	65-71	33%
Jan 17, 2022	206	@ Bryant	L	78-86	28%
Jan 21, 2022	346	Central Connecticut St.	W	82-71	80%
Jan 23, 2022	288	Sacred Heart	W	74-71	60%
Jan 27, 2022	228	@ Wagner	L	68-74	32%
Jan 29, 2022	242	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	63-68	35%
Feb 03, 2022	206	Bryant	L	81-83	45%
Feb 05, 2022	234	Merrimack	W	68-67	51%
Feb 10, 2022	323	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	W	80-79	51%
Feb 12, 2022	242	Mount St. Mary's	W	66-65	53%
Feb 17, 2022	254	LIU Brooklyn	W	79-77	55%
Feb 19, 2022	320	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	82-76	67%
Feb 24, 2022	346	@ Central Connecticut St.	W	79-74	64%
Feb 26, 2022	288	@ Sacred Heart	L	71-74	42%
Projected Record						12 - 16	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.3	1.3	2.4	2.6	1.7	0.9	0.2		9.4	1st
2nd											0.1	0.9	2.8	3.4	2.1	0.8	0.1				10.2	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.5	3.9	3.7	1.5	0.3	0.0					11.1	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.9	4.4	3.6	1.2	0.1	0.0						11.4	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.3	4.7	3.5	0.8	0.0								11.6	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.4	4.7	3.0	0.5	0.0									11.1	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	2.8	4.4	2.6	0.4	0.0										11.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.2	3.0	3.8	1.8	0.3	0.0											10.2	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	1.5	2.8	2.5	1.1	0.2	0.0												8.5	9th
10th	0.2	0.7	1.5	1.7	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0													5.6	10th

Total	0.2	0.8	1.9	3.3	5.0	6.4	8.2	9.1	10.2	10.1	10.1	9.3	8.0	6.3	4.8	3.4	1.8	0.9	0.2			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.9		0.8	0.0
16-2	94.7%	1.7		1.5	0.2
15-3	76.7%	2.6		1.9	0.7	0.0
14-4	50.1%	2.4		1.2	1.0	0.2	0.0
13-5	20.2%	1.3		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0
12-6	4.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	9.4%	9.4		6.1	2.6	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		67.9%	67.9%		13.3				0.0							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
17-1	0.9%		55.9%	55.6%	0.3%	14.1										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.4		0.6%
16-2	1.8%		47.8%	47.8%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.9
15-3	3.4%		39.1%	39.1%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.5	2.0
14-4	4.8%		32.2%	32.2%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	3.3
13-5	6.3%		25.8%	25.8%		15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.2	4.7
12-6	8.0%		20.2%	20.2%		15.9														0.0	0.0	0.2	1.4	6.4
11-7	9.3%		14.7%	14.7%		15.9															0.0	0.1	1.3	7.9
10-8	10.1%		8.4%	8.4%		16.0																0.0	0.8	9.3
9-9	10.1%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.8
8-10	10.2%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.1
7-11	9.1%																							9.1
6-12	8.2%																							8.2
5-13	6.4%																							6.4
4-14	5.0%																							5.0
3-15	3.3%																							3.3
2-16	1.9%																							1.9
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		10.2%	10.2%	0.0%	15.5				0.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	2.3	6.5	89.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%