Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#49
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.6#346
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#76
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 10.0% 10.5% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 16.8% 17.7% 2.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 48.9% 15.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.4% 43.3% 12.3%
Average Seed 7.7 7.6 9.5
.500 or above 83.2% 85.1% 51.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.8% 80.2% 55.1%
Conference Champion 10.1% 10.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 5.3%
First Four6.1% 6.3% 3.7%
First Round43.8% 45.6% 13.4%
Second Round25.5% 26.6% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 11.7% 1.5%
Elite Eight4.8% 5.1% 0.4%
Final Four2.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 10
Quad 47 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 232   Prairie View W 73-56 94%    
  Nov 12, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 76-61 92%    
  Nov 15, 2021 122   Southern Utah W 74-64 81%    
  Nov 17, 2021 165   Bellarmine W 71-58 87%    
  Nov 22, 2021 45   Notre Dame L 67-68 49%    
  Nov 29, 2021 148   UC Riverside W 69-57 83%    
  Dec 02, 2021 72   @ Utah St. L 65-66 48%    
  Dec 04, 2021 51   @ Colorado St. L 66-69 41%    
  Dec 11, 2021 97   UC Santa Barbara W 68-60 73%    
  Dec 17, 2021 42   San Diego St. L 62-63 47%    
  Dec 22, 2021 96   Missouri St. W 70-63 73%    
  Dec 28, 2021 126   Yale W 72-62 79%    
  Jan 01, 2022 67   San Francisco W 68-63 65%    
  Jan 06, 2022 124   @ Santa Clara W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 08, 2022 38   @ BYU L 65-69 37%    
  Jan 13, 2022 147   @ Pepperdine W 73-67 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 137   Pacific W 69-58 80%    
  Jan 20, 2022 124   Santa Clara W 73-63 78%    
  Jan 22, 2022 82   @ Loyola Marymount W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 27, 2022 67   @ San Francisco L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 29, 2022 147   Pepperdine W 76-64 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 307   @ Portland W 78-63 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 82   Loyola Marymount W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 10, 2022 170   San Diego W 74-61 85%    
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 67-81 14%    
  Feb 19, 2022 38   BYU W 68-66 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 170   @ San Diego W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 70-78 26%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 3.6 2.5 0.7 10.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.8 7.8 6.2 2.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 6.4 7.1 2.9 0.3 18.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 5.1 1.3 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 5.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.7 7.9 10.3 12.6 13.4 13.3 11.6 8.8 5.5 2.5 0.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 2.5    2.1 0.5
14-2 64.3% 3.6    2.1 1.5 0.0
13-3 26.7% 2.4    0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-4 7.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 10.1% 10.1 5.8 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-1 2.5% 99.9% 41.9% 58.0% 2.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-2 5.5% 98.5% 31.1% 67.4% 4.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
13-3 8.8% 94.9% 20.4% 74.5% 6.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 93.6%
12-4 11.6% 84.8% 15.0% 69.8% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 82.1%
11-5 13.3% 67.5% 9.4% 58.1% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 64.1%
10-6 13.4% 46.5% 5.9% 40.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.2 43.1%
9-7 12.6% 26.0% 3.4% 22.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.3 23.3%
8-8 10.3% 12.6% 2.0% 10.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.0 10.8%
7-9 7.9% 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 2.5%
6-10 5.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.3%
5-11 3.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.1%
4-12 2.1% 2.1
3-13 1.1% 1.1
2-14 0.5% 0.5
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.0% 9.5% 37.5% 7.7 1.7 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.8 5.3 5.9 6.5 4.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.0 41.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 75.3 22.9 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 60.2 33.6 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 80.0 9.2 10.8