Preseason Rankings
TCU
Big 12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#80
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#253
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 3.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 7.1% 7.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 23.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.0% 21.6% 3.7%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 9.7
.500 or above 52.3% 53.3% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 26.6% 7.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 1.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 20.5% 44.0%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 1.0%
First Round21.2% 21.7% 3.8%
Second Round11.5% 11.8% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 4.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.8% 0.1%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 23 - 46 - 13
Quad 34 - 210 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 331   McNeese St. W 83-62 97%    
  Nov 15, 2021 195   Southern Miss W 73-62 85%    
  Nov 18, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 82-68 88%    
  Nov 22, 2021 124   Santa Clara W 75-71 62%    
  Nov 24, 2021 147   Pepperdine W 77-72 67%    
  Nov 29, 2021 285   Austin Peay W 79-62 92%    
  Dec 02, 2021 154   Oral Roberts W 81-72 78%    
  Dec 08, 2021 88   Utah W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 11, 2021 94   Texas A&M W 67-66 53%    
  Dec 18, 2021 86   @ Georgetown L 71-73 42%    
  Dec 21, 2021 312   Grambling St. W 80-62 93%    
  Dec 29, 2021 211   Texas Southern W 80-68 84%    
  Jan 01, 2022 4   @ Kansas L 64-77 14%    
  Jan 03, 2022 32   West Virginia L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 08, 2022 9   Baylor L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 12, 2022 89   @ Kansas St. L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 40   Oklahoma L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 19, 2022 35   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-78 26%    
  Jan 22, 2022 127   @ Iowa St. W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 25, 2022 7   Texas L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 29, 2022 36   LSU L 75-77 44%    
  Jan 31, 2022 40   @ Oklahoma L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 89   Kansas St. W 68-64 61%    
  Feb 08, 2022 35   Oklahoma St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 12, 2022 21   @ Texas Tech L 61-71 22%    
  Feb 15, 2022 127   Iowa St. W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 19, 2022 9   @ Baylor L 65-77 17%    
  Feb 23, 2022 7   @ Texas L 65-77 17%    
  Feb 26, 2022 21   Texas Tech L 64-68 39%    
  Mar 01, 2022 4   Kansas L 67-74 28%    
  Mar 05, 2022 32   @ West Virginia L 68-76 26%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.4 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.8 5.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 5.0 5.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 1.4 3.4 4.3 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 14.5 10th
Total 1.4 3.6 6.2 9.1 10.3 11.5 11.6 10.8 9.6 8.0 6.1 4.7 3.1 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 74.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 62.3% 37.7% 1.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.0% 99.3% 15.7% 83.6% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 3.1% 95.0% 9.0% 86.1% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.5%
11-7 4.7% 87.5% 5.6% 81.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 86.8%
10-8 6.1% 73.5% 3.8% 69.7% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 72.5%
9-9 8.0% 50.3% 1.9% 48.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.0 49.4%
8-10 9.6% 21.9% 1.3% 20.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 20.9%
7-11 10.8% 6.0% 0.6% 5.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 10.2 5.4%
6-12 11.6% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.4 1.0%
5-13 11.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.1%
4-14 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3
3-15 9.1% 9.1
2-16 6.2% 6.2
1-17 3.6% 3.6
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 22.6% 2.0% 20.6% 7.8 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.4 21.0%