Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#174
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace59.0#354
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.9
.500 or above 66.9% 72.6% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 75.7% 50.8%
Conference Champion 16.0% 17.9% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.0% 10.1%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
First Round12.2% 13.7% 4.6%
Second Round1.7% 1.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 345   @ Incarnate Word W 67-57 84%    
  Nov 12, 2021 36   @ LSU L 62-77 9%    
  Nov 14, 2021 92   @ Vanderbilt L 61-70 21%    
  Nov 19, 2021 303   Dixie St. W 73-65 75%    
  Nov 30, 2021 173   @ Rice L 67-70 40%    
  Dec 05, 2021 344   Denver W 75-59 91%    
  Dec 15, 2021 308   Lamar W 69-58 82%    
  Dec 22, 2021 13   @ Houston L 51-69 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 243   Troy W 68-60 73%    
  Jan 01, 2022 214   South Alabama W 67-61 68%    
  Jan 06, 2022 245   @ Georgia Southern W 63-61 55%    
  Jan 08, 2022 121   @ Georgia St. L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 13, 2022 269   Louisiana Monroe W 67-58 76%    
  Jan 15, 2022 171   Louisiana W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 20, 2022 277   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 64-61 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 194   @ Arkansas St. L 65-66 45%    
  Jan 27, 2022 224   @ Texas Arlington W 65-64 51%    
  Jan 29, 2022 224   Texas Arlington W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 03, 2022 182   Appalachian St. W 63-59 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 190   Coastal Carolina W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 10, 2022 171   @ Louisiana L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 269   @ Louisiana Monroe W 64-61 59%    
  Feb 17, 2022 194   Arkansas St. W 68-63 64%    
  Feb 19, 2022 277   Arkansas Little Rock W 67-58 76%    
  Feb 24, 2022 214   @ South Alabama L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 243   @ Troy W 65-63 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 4.3 3.8 2.3 0.7 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.5 5.1 6.6 8.0 9.4 10.2 10.4 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.2 4.3 2.4 0.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 97.5% 2.3    2.2 0.1
16-2 89.1% 3.8    3.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 68.2% 4.3    2.7 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 39.2% 3.2    1.4 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 10.4 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 72.5% 65.7% 6.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 19.9%
17-1 2.4% 56.2% 53.1% 3.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 6.7%
16-2 4.3% 41.5% 40.6% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.5 1.5%
15-3 6.2% 32.7% 32.4% 0.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 4.2 0.5%
14-4 8.1% 24.3% 24.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.1
13-5 9.6% 18.6% 18.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 7.8
12-6 10.4% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 9.1
11-7 10.4% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 9.5
10-8 10.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.7
9-9 9.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.1
8-10 8.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9
7-11 6.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.5
6-12 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-13 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.6% 12.4% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.3 3.2 1.8 87.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 44.4 27.8 27.8