Preseason Rankings
Towson
Colonial Athletic
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#239
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.6#295
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#277
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 8.8% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 33.0% 51.8% 20.5%
.500 or above in Conference 41.9% 56.1% 32.5%
Conference Champion 5.7% 9.8% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.2% 8.3% 21.4%
First Four1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
First Round4.9% 8.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 12
Quad 410 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 244   @ Albany L 69-72 40%    
  Nov 13, 2021 216   Monmouth W 77-75 55%    
  Nov 16, 2021 329   Hampton W 78-69 80%    
  Nov 19, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 65-76 17%    
  Nov 23, 2021 187   Penn L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 25, 2021 67   San Francisco L 64-77 15%    
  Dec 02, 2021 254   LIU Brooklyn W 77-73 63%    
  Dec 06, 2021 132   @ Kent St. L 68-78 20%    
  Dec 08, 2021 12   @ Ohio St. L 60-82 3%    
  Dec 11, 2021 336   @ Coppin St. W 80-76 64%    
  Dec 14, 2021 149   UNC Greensboro L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 22, 2021 184   @ Navy L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 31, 2021 172   James Madison L 75-76 46%    
  Jan 03, 2022 175   @ Drexel L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 05, 2022 181   @ Delaware L 65-72 30%    
  Jan 09, 2022 134   Northeastern L 67-71 39%    
  Jan 11, 2022 192   Hofstra W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 217   @ Elon L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 17, 2022 295   @ William & Mary L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 20, 2022 235   College of Charleston W 69-66 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 266   UNC Wilmington W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 27, 2022 181   Delaware L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 29, 2022 175   Drexel L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 192   @ Hofstra L 69-75 32%    
  Feb 05, 2022 134   @ Northeastern L 64-74 23%    
  Feb 10, 2022 295   William & Mary W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 12, 2022 217   Elon W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 266   @ UNC Wilmington L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 235   @ College of Charleston L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 26, 2022 172   @ James Madison L 72-79 28%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 5.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 7.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.5 1.4 0.2 12.1 9th
10th 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 10.9 10th
Total 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.6 7.2 8.9 9.7 10.3 10.5 9.6 8.6 7.4 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 94.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 80.1% 1.4    1.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 50.7% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 24.9% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 62.4% 57.6% 4.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3%
17-1 0.4% 51.2% 49.0% 2.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4%
16-2 1.0% 40.1% 38.7% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3%
15-3 1.8% 31.9% 31.5% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.6%
14-4 2.9% 24.7% 24.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.2
13-5 4.3% 18.0% 18.0% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.5 0.1%
12-6 5.9% 12.1% 12.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 5.2
11-7 7.4% 8.0% 8.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 6.8
10-8 8.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.0
9-9 9.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.2
8-10 10.5% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 10.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.2
6-12 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
5-13 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.8
4-14 7.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
3-15 5.6% 5.6
2-16 3.5% 3.5
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 5.5% 5.4% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.8 94.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%