Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#208
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#122
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#210
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#211
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 14.5% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 14.1 13.2 14.4
.500 or above 45.3% 76.4% 41.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.3% 78.8% 53.4%
Conference Champion 6.7% 16.2% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 1.4% 7.4%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.8%
First Round6.2% 14.2% 5.2%
Second Round0.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 11.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 72   @ Utah St. L 66-79 11%    
  Nov 12, 2021 219   Eastern Washington W 80-76 63%    
  Nov 17, 2021 147   @ Pepperdine L 74-81 28%    
  Nov 23, 2021 287   Sacramento St. W 72-67 65%    
  Dec 01, 2021 137   Pacific L 70-71 45%    
  Dec 14, 2021 70   @ Oregon St. L 64-77 14%    
  Dec 19, 2021 137   @ Pacific L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 22, 2021 307   Portland W 83-74 77%    
  Dec 28, 2021 148   UC Riverside L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 31, 2021 202   @ Hawaii L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 06, 2022 111   UC Irvine L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 263   UC San Diego W 79-73 69%    
  Jan 13, 2022 203   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 15, 2022 305   @ Cal Poly W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 20, 2022 296   @ Cal St. Northridge W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 22, 2022 97   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-77 20%    
  Jan 27, 2022 231   Cal St. Fullerton W 81-76 64%    
  Jan 29, 2022 271   Long Beach St. W 82-75 71%    
  Feb 01, 2022 148   @ UC Riverside L 67-74 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 202   Hawaii W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 10, 2022 263   @ UC San Diego W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 111   @ UC Irvine L 67-76 23%    
  Feb 17, 2022 305   Cal Poly W 76-67 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 24, 2022 97   UC Santa Barbara L 69-74 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 296   Cal St. Northridge W 82-74 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 271   @ Long Beach St. W 79-78 53%    
  Mar 05, 2022 231   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 78-79 46%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.1 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.5 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 4.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.9 1.7 0.2 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 4.6 6.3 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.2 7.9 6.7 5.2 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 91.1% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
17-3 69.4% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
16-4 44.1% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.4% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 69.0% 61.8% 7.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.7%
19-1 0.5% 55.8% 47.6% 8.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.6%
18-2 1.3% 44.2% 41.4% 2.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.8%
17-3 2.5% 32.7% 31.5% 1.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.7%
16-4 3.8% 24.1% 24.1% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.9 0.1%
15-5 5.2% 17.8% 17.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 4.3
14-6 6.7% 11.4% 11.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 5.9
13-7 7.9% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 7.2
12-8 9.2% 6.2% 6.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 8.6
11-9 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.2
10-10 9.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.3
9-11 9.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.1
8-12 8.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.5
7-13 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.3
5-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 3.5% 3.5
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.6% 6.4% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 93.4 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 25.0 25.0 3.6 46.4
Lose Out 0.1%