Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#258
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#287
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 12.9% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.3 15.2
.500 or above 40.0% 73.7% 36.5%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 75.9% 48.8%
Conference Champion 6.5% 15.7% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 2.3% 10.1%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 1.6%
First Round5.4% 12.1% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 87   @ Dayton L 63-77 9%    
  Nov 16, 2021 35   Oklahoma St. L 69-86 7%    
  Nov 17, 2021 346   Central Connecticut St. W 82-73 78%    
  Nov 19, 2021 238   @ George Washington L 73-77 37%    
  Nov 24, 2021 119   @ Massachusetts L 72-84 17%    
  Dec 01, 2021 237   Brown W 72-70 55%    
  Dec 04, 2021 234   @ Merrimack L 66-70 36%    
  Dec 08, 2021 197   @ Boston University L 68-75 29%    
  Dec 19, 2021 288   Sacred Heart W 76-71 65%    
  Dec 21, 2021 254   @ LIU Brooklyn L 78-81 40%    
  Dec 23, 2021 320   St. Francis Brooklyn W 84-77 71%    
  Jan 02, 2022 327   @ Binghamton W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 06, 2022 293   NJIT W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 08, 2022 229   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 12, 2022 244   @ Albany L 72-76 38%    
  Jan 15, 2022 213   Hartford W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 19, 2022 337   Maine W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 241   @ New Hampshire L 69-73 38%    
  Jan 26, 2022 244   Albany W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 29, 2022 213   @ Hartford L 68-74 33%    
  Feb 02, 2022 337   @ Maine W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 05, 2022 116   Vermont L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 09, 2022 188   @ Stony Brook L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 12, 2022 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 16, 2022 293   @ NJIT L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 19, 2022 327   Binghamton W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 23, 2022 188   Stony Brook L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 26, 2022 116   @ Vermont L 66-78 17%    
  Mar 01, 2022 241   New Hampshire W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.1 2.4 0.9 0.1 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.4 3.6 1.1 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.0 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 10th
Total 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.3 7.3 8.7 9.8 10.7 10.5 9.8 8.7 7.4 5.8 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.0
16-2 90.8% 1.3    1.1 0.2
15-3 67.9% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0
14-4 36.9% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 61.5% 57.9% 3.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5%
17-1 0.6% 50.6% 49.3% 1.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.5%
16-2 1.5% 37.9% 37.8% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.3%
15-3 2.7% 28.8% 28.7% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.9 0.1%
14-4 4.2% 19.8% 19.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 3.4
13-5 5.8% 16.9% 16.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 4.8
12-6 7.4% 10.9% 10.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 6.6
11-7 8.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.1
10-8 9.8% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3
9-9 10.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.1
8-10 10.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.5
7-11 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 9.7
6-12 8.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.8 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%