IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.6	#266
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.5	#97
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.3	#220

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.3	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.9%	7.2%	2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.5	15.3

.500 or above	31.5%	53.9%	21.6%
.500 or above in Conference	33.4%	50.3%	25.9%
Conference Champion	3.8%	7.4%	2.2%
Last Place in Conference	22.3%	11.4%	27.2%

First Four	0.9%	1.0%	0.8%
First Round	3.4%	6.7%	2.0%
Second Round	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Away) - 30.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 8	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 7	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	223	@ Illinois St.	L	73-78	31%
Nov 16, 2021	117	@ Pittsburgh	L	69-81	14%
Nov 18, 2021	190	Coastal Carolina	L	78-79	45%
Nov 20, 2021	354	@ Delaware St.	W	89-78	83%
Nov 24, 2021	195	Southern Miss	L	70-74	37%
Nov 25, 2021	161	@ Montana	L	68-77	22%
Nov 26, 2021	263	UC San Diego	L	77-78	49%
Dec 01, 2021	291	Norfolk St.	W	75-71	64%
Dec 11, 2021	302	@ Jacksonville	L	74-75	47%
Dec 18, 2021	299	@ High Point	L	72-73	46%
Dec 22, 2021	200	Campbell	L	70-71	48%
Dec 29, 2021	181	Delaware	L	72-74	44%
Dec 31, 2021	175	Drexel	L	70-73	42%
Jan 03, 2022	192	@ Hofstra	L	73-80	28%
Jan 05, 2022	134	@ Northeastern	L	68-79	19%
Jan 09, 2022	295	William & Mary	W	77-72	65%
Jan 11, 2022	217	Elon	W	73-72	51%
Jan 17, 2022	235	@ College of Charleston	L	69-74	35%
Jan 20, 2022	172	@ James Madison	L	77-86	25%
Jan 22, 2022	239	@ Towson	L	72-76	37%
Jan 27, 2022	134	Northeastern	L	71-76	35%
Jan 29, 2022	192	Hofstra	L	76-77	46%
Feb 03, 2022	217	@ Elon	L	70-76	32%
Feb 05, 2022	295	@ William & Mary	L	74-75	46%
Feb 12, 2022	235	College of Charleston	W	72-71	54%
Feb 17, 2022	239	Towson	W	75-73	55%
Feb 19, 2022	172	James Madison	L	80-83	42%
Feb 24, 2022	175	@ Drexel	L	67-76	25%
Feb 26, 2022	181	@ Delaware	L	69-77	26%
Projected Record						12 - 17	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	1.1	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1		3.8	1st
2nd											0.1	0.8	1.7	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.0				5.3	2nd
3rd										0.2	1.3	2.6	1.9	0.7	0.1	0.0					6.7	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.8	3.5	2.1	0.5	0.0							8.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.2	4.1	2.2	0.4	0.0								9.2	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	2.7	4.7	2.3	0.3	0.0									10.6	6th
7th					0.0	0.9	3.5	5.0	2.3	0.3	0.0										12.1	7th
8th				0.2	1.5	4.3	4.9	2.3	0.2	0.0											13.5	8th
9th		0.1	0.9	3.0	5.0	4.2	1.5	0.2													14.9	9th
10th	1.1	3.0	4.2	4.0	2.5	0.8	0.1	0.0													15.6	10th

Total	1.1	3.1	5.1	7.2	9.1	10.2	10.5	10.6	9.7	8.7	7.5	5.8	4.4	3.1	2.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	94.2%	0.5		0.5	0.1
15-3	81.5%	0.9		0.7	0.2	0.0
14-4	54.1%	1.1		0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	21.8%	0.7		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	6.9%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.8%	3.8		2.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		76.7%	59.5%	17.2%	9.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		42.4%
17-1	0.2%		41.7%	38.7%	3.0%	12.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		5.0%
16-2	0.6%		41.0%	39.0%	1.9%	13.3												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.3		3.2%
15-3	1.1%		32.1%	31.9%	0.2%	13.9												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.8		0.3%
14-4	2.0%		22.8%	22.7%	0.1%	14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.5		0.2%
13-5	3.1%		16.4%	16.4%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.6
12-6	4.4%		12.3%	12.3%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	3.8
11-7	5.8%		8.1%	8.1%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	5.3
10-8	7.5%		5.8%	5.8%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	7.1
9-9	8.7%		3.5%	3.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.2	8.4
8-10	9.7%		2.4%	2.4%		15.9																0.0	0.2	9.5
7-11	10.6%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.4
6-12	10.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.5
5-13	10.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
4-14	9.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
3-15	7.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
2-16	5.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	5.1
1-17	3.1%																							3.1
0-18	1.1%																							1.1

Total	100%		3.9%	3.8%	0.0%	14.8						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.5	96.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.3					17.6	41.2	20.6					20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	70.0%	7.0							70.0
Lose Out	0.2%