IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.2	#189
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.0	#236
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#197

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#191

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.3%	5.7%	1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	1.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	12.5	12.1	13.4

.500 or above	39.3%	57.6%	25.8%
.500 or above in Conference	31.7%	43.8%	22.8%
Conference Champion	2.3%	4.0%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	19.6%	11.4%	25.7%

First Four	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
First Round	3.1%	5.3%	1.5%
Second Round	0.6%	1.2%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 7
Quad 3	4 - 6	5 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 3	13 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2021	114	Toledo	L	73-75	43%
Nov 13, 2021	253	Illinois-Chicago	W	73-66	74%
Nov 17, 2021	71	@ Stanford	L	64-76	15%
Nov 22, 2021	190	Coastal Carolina	W	74-73	50%
Dec 02, 2021	73	@ Drake	L	63-75	16%
Dec 05, 2021	284	@ Western Michigan	W	70-68	58%
Dec 11, 2021	178	Charlotte	W	65-63	58%
Dec 20, 2021	300	Eastern Michigan	W	74-65	78%
Dec 22, 2021	295	William & Mary	W	74-65	77%
Dec 28, 2021	232	Prairie View	W	73-67	68%
Jan 02, 2022	223	Illinois St.	W	73-68	66%
Jan 05, 2022	107	@ Northern Iowa	L	68-77	24%
Jan 08, 2022	140	Southern Illinois	L	67-68	50%
Jan 11, 2022	46	@ Loyola Chicago	L	57-71	13%
Jan 15, 2022	96	Missouri St.	L	70-74	38%
Jan 19, 2022	107	Northern Iowa	L	71-74	41%
Jan 22, 2022	176	@ Indiana St.	L	66-70	38%
Jan 26, 2022	157	Bradley	W	69-68	54%
Jan 29, 2022	140	@ Southern Illinois	L	64-70	32%
Feb 01, 2022	198	Evansville	W	67-63	61%
Feb 05, 2022	176	Indiana St.	W	69-67	57%
Feb 09, 2022	223	@ Illinois St.	L	70-71	47%
Feb 12, 2022	96	@ Missouri St.	L	67-77	22%
Feb 16, 2022	46	Loyola Chicago	L	60-68	25%
Feb 19, 2022	198	@ Evansville	L	64-66	42%
Feb 23, 2022	73	Drake	L	66-72	33%
Feb 26, 2022	157	@ Bradley	L	66-71	36%
Projected Record						12 - 15	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd											0.1	0.5	1.2	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.0				4.5	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.0	2.2	2.1	0.8	0.1	0.0					6.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	1.8	3.4	2.4	0.6	0.1							8.5	4th
5th							0.0	0.5	2.6	4.3	2.5	0.5	0.0								10.4	5th
6th						0.1	0.9	3.5	5.1	2.4	0.4	0.0									12.3	6th
7th					0.1	1.5	4.4	5.0	2.1	0.3	0.0										13.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.4	2.4	5.3	4.6	1.6	0.2	0.0											14.5	8th
9th		0.1	1.2	3.4	5.0	3.5	1.1	0.1	0.0												14.3	9th
10th	1.0	2.7	3.9	3.6	1.8	0.4	0.0														13.4	10th

Total	1.0	2.7	5.1	7.3	9.3	10.8	11.0	10.7	10.3	9.0	7.4	5.5	4.0	2.7	1.6	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.1	0.0
16-2	91.8%	0.4		0.3	0.1
15-3	69.6%	0.7		0.5	0.2	0.0
14-4	37.9%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.2%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	3.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.4	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		100.0%	55.7%	44.3%	5.8			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.0							100.0%
17-1	0.2%		82.3%	43.7%	38.6%	7.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		68.6%
16-2	0.4%		63.6%	32.0%	31.6%	10.0				0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0				0.2		46.5%
15-3	0.9%		48.4%	31.4%	16.9%	11.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.5		24.7%
14-4	1.6%		26.7%	19.8%	6.9%	12.0						0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.1		8.7%
13-5	2.7%		15.3%	12.8%	2.4%	12.4									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.3		2.8%
12-6	4.0%		10.7%	10.4%	0.3%	13.0											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		3.6		0.4%
11-7	5.5%		6.3%	6.2%	0.1%	13.5												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.2		0.1%
10-8	7.4%		4.1%	4.1%		13.7												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.1
9-9	9.0%		2.6%	2.6%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	8.7
8-10	10.3%		1.7%	1.7%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	10.1
7-11	10.7%		0.7%	0.7%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.6
6-12	11.0%		0.2%	0.2%		15.7																0.0	0.0	11.0
5-13	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
4-14	9.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
3-15	7.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.3
2-16	5.1%																							5.1
1-17	2.7%																							2.7
0-18	1.0%																							1.0

Total	100%		3.3%	2.8%	0.6%	12.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.2	96.7		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%