Preseason Rankings
Vermont
America East
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#116
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 2.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.1% 49.0% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 3.1% 0.4%
Average Seed 13.2 12.4 13.8
.500 or above 86.1% 95.8% 80.5%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 98.0% 92.0%
Conference Champion 50.1% 63.0% 42.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.9% 1.4% 2.1%
First Round37.2% 48.3% 30.9%
Second Round7.2% 12.0% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 4.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 107   @ Northern Iowa L 69-73 36%    
  Nov 13, 2021 16   @ Maryland L 59-72 12%    
  Nov 19, 2021 126   Yale W 72-68 63%    
  Nov 22, 2021 221   Oakland W 77-70 72%    
  Nov 27, 2021 149   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 01, 2021 270   Dartmouth W 74-61 86%    
  Dec 07, 2021 65   @ Providence L 63-71 26%    
  Dec 10, 2021 237   @ Brown W 70-65 65%    
  Dec 19, 2021 134   @ Northeastern L 67-69 45%    
  Dec 22, 2021 105   Colgate W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 02, 2022 244   Albany W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 05, 2022 241   New Hampshire W 72-61 82%    
  Jan 08, 2022 213   @ Hartford W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 12, 2022 188   Stony Brook W 71-63 74%    
  Jan 15, 2022 229   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 19, 2022 293   @ NJIT W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 22, 2022 213   Hartford W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 26, 2022 188   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 29, 2022 337   Maine W 72-53 93%    
  Feb 02, 2022 293   NJIT W 75-61 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 258   @ Umass Lowell W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 09, 2022 327   Binghamton W 77-60 91%    
  Feb 12, 2022 244   @ Albany W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 16, 2022 241   @ New Hampshire W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 19, 2022 229   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-63 80%    
  Feb 23, 2022 327   @ Binghamton W 74-63 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 258   Umass Lowell W 78-66 83%    
  Mar 01, 2022 337   @ Maine W 69-56 83%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.4 10.8 12.8 11.0 6.0 50.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.3 6.2 3.2 0.7 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.0 2.6 0.7 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 5.1 7.2 9.0 11.5 13.3 14.1 13.5 11.0 6.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.0    6.0
17-1 100.0% 11.0    10.7 0.3
16-2 94.7% 12.8    11.1 1.6 0.0
15-3 77.0% 10.8    7.6 3.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 48.5% 6.4    3.4 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 21.6% 2.5    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 50.1% 50.1 39.6 8.8 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.0% 81.4% 76.3% 5.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.1 21.7%
17-1 11.0% 67.9% 65.0% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 2.1 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 8.2%
16-2 13.5% 56.6% 55.7% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.8 2.1 0.7 0.1 5.9 2.0%
15-3 14.1% 44.5% 44.4% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.2 1.2 0.2 7.8 0.3%
14-4 13.3% 35.7% 35.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 8.5 0.0%
13-5 11.5% 27.6% 27.6% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 8.3
12-6 9.0% 20.1% 20.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 7.2
11-7 7.2% 14.7% 14.7% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 6.1
10-8 5.1% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 4.5
9-9 3.5% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.2
8-10 2.5% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
7-11 1.5% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-12 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 38.1% 37.3% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.6 5.6 9.4 8.7 6.3 3.4 61.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 6.2 12.8 25.8 27.0 18.4 7.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 86.5% 7.2 11.5 23.1 26.9 13.5 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 58.8% 7.7 20.6 38.2