IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.5	#129
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#39
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.0	#91

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#194

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.6%	1.2%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.7%	29.8%	16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.1%	2.2%	0.3%
Average Seed	13.2	12.7	14.0

.500 or above	79.7%	91.0%	69.5%
.500 or above in Conference	87.0%	93.3%	81.3%
Conference Champion	28.4%	37.3%	20.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	1.0%

First Four	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
First Round	22.1%	29.2%	15.8%
Second Round	4.2%	6.6%	2.0%
Sweet Sixteen	1.3%	2.1%	0.6%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 5	6 - 9
Quad 4	13 - 3	20 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 15, 2021	162	@ Duquesne	L	76-77	47%
Nov 18, 2021	119	Massachusetts	L	82-83	47%
Nov 19, 2021	199	Ball St.	W	82-78	65%
Nov 21, 2021	316	Green Bay	W	82-71	83%
Nov 27, 2021	303	@ Dixie St.	W	87-80	73%
Dec 02, 2021	324	Northern Arizona	W	80-65	90%
Dec 04, 2021	220	Portland St.	W	84-75	76%
Dec 08, 2021	69	@ Washington St.	L	71-80	24%
Dec 15, 2021	72	Utah St.	L	76-78	43%
Dec 18, 2021	38	BYU	L	75-81	32%
Dec 23, 2021	138	Fresno St.	W	76-72	61%
Dec 30, 2021	204	@ Montana St.	W	79-77	54%
Jan 01, 2022	161	@ Montana	L	74-75	47%
Jan 08, 2022	236	@ Idaho St.	W	74-71	61%
Jan 13, 2022	341	Idaho	W	85-67	93%
Jan 15, 2022	219	Eastern Washington	W	87-79	75%
Jan 20, 2022	236	Idaho St.	W	77-68	77%
Jan 24, 2022	122	@ Southern Utah	L	79-83	39%
Jan 27, 2022	201	@ Northern Colorado	W	78-77	54%
Jan 29, 2022	287	@ Sacramento St.	W	77-71	69%
Feb 03, 2022	161	Montana	W	77-72	66%
Feb 05, 2022	204	Montana St.	W	82-74	72%
Feb 10, 2022	219	@ Eastern Washington	W	84-82	58%
Feb 12, 2022	341	@ Idaho	W	82-70	83%
Feb 17, 2022	287	Sacramento St.	W	80-68	83%
Feb 19, 2022	201	Northern Colorado	W	81-74	72%
Feb 24, 2022	220	@ Portland St.	W	81-78	58%
Feb 26, 2022	324	@ Northern Arizona	W	77-68	77%
Mar 05, 2022	122	Southern Utah	W	82-80	58%
Projected Record						18 - 11	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.6	2.6	5.3	7.1	6.6	4.3	1.8		28.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.6	4.2	6.0	4.8	2.2	0.5				19.5	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	1.9	4.5	4.9	2.4	0.6	0.0					14.6	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.2	4.1	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0						11.2	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	1.9	3.2	2.2	0.6	0.0								8.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.0	0.4	1.6	2.6	1.4	0.3	0.0									6.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.4	1.9	1.0	0.2	0.0										4.9	7th
8th						0.0	0.4	1.0	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0											3.2	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.0												2.1	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0														1.1	10th
11th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0																0.3	11th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.5	2.2	3.3	4.5	6.0	7.2	8.6	10.1	10.8	11.1	10.7	9.3	7.0	4.3	1.8			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	1.8		1.8
19-1	100.0%	4.3		4.2	0.1
18-2	93.4%	6.6		5.7	0.8	0.0
17-3	76.0%	7.1		5.1	1.8	0.1
16-4	49.8%	5.3		2.9	2.1	0.4	0.0
15-5	23.2%	2.6		1.0	1.1	0.5	0.1
14-6	5.8%	0.6		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	28.4%	28.4		20.7	6.3	1.2	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	1.8%		80.3%	65.6%	14.7%	8.8		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3		42.7%
19-1	4.3%		66.6%	59.6%	6.9%	11.3				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0		1.4		17.2%
18-2	7.0%		51.7%	48.8%	2.9%	12.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0	3.4		5.7%
17-3	9.3%		40.5%	39.8%	0.7%	13.2										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.2	0.4	0.0	5.5		1.2%
16-4	10.7%		32.9%	32.7%	0.2%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.4	1.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	7.2		0.3%
15-5	11.1%		24.1%	24.1%	0.0%	14.2													0.1	0.5	1.0	0.9	0.2	8.4		0.0%
14-6	10.8%		17.4%	17.4%		14.6												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.3	8.9
13-7	10.1%		13.0%	13.0%		15.0													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.4	8.8
12-8	8.6%		8.7%	8.7%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	7.9
11-9	7.2%		6.2%	6.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	6.8
10-10	6.0%		4.6%	4.6%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.7
9-11	4.5%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	4.4
8-12	3.3%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.1	3.2
7-13	2.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
6-14	1.5%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
5-15	0.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.8
4-16	0.5%																							0.5
3-17	0.2%																							0.2
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		22.7%	21.9%	0.9%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	1.1	3.4	5.2	5.3	4.0	2.0	77.3		1.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	4.5	1.2	4.7	20.3	29.3	21.5	16.3	3.6	2.1				1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	87.4%	5.9	6.3			12.6	30.6	12.6	5.4	7.2	6.3			6.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	69.0%	6.4				6.9	6.9	24.1	23.0		8.0