Preseason Rankings
Wisconsin
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#43
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.3#330
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#83
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.2% 5.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 13.5% 13.7% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 23.3% 23.6% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.6% 46.1% 10.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.4% 44.0% 9.8%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 7.8
.500 or above 67.6% 68.3% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 47.1% 47.6% 15.0%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 7.8% 24.5%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 1.1%
First Round43.7% 44.3% 10.4%
Second Round28.0% 28.3% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen13.2% 13.4% 2.0%
Elite Eight6.1% 6.1% 0.5%
Final Four2.7% 2.7% 0.2%
Championship Game1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis Brooklyn (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 45 - 017 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 320   St. Francis Brooklyn W 83-60 98%    
  Nov 12, 2021 316   Green Bay W 77-55 98%    
  Nov 15, 2021 65   Providence W 67-62 67%    
  Nov 22, 2021 94   Texas A&M W 65-60 66%    
  Dec 01, 2021 60   @ Georgia Tech L 64-65 46%    
  Dec 04, 2021 78   Marquette W 69-62 71%    
  Dec 08, 2021 30   Indiana W 64-63 54%    
  Dec 11, 2021 12   @ Ohio St. L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 15, 2021 230   Nicholls St. W 79-62 92%    
  Dec 23, 2021 256   Morgan St. W 80-61 94%    
  Dec 29, 2021 223   Illinois St. W 75-58 92%    
  Jan 03, 2022 5   @ Purdue L 60-69 23%    
  Jan 06, 2022 39   Iowa W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 09, 2022 16   @ Maryland L 60-66 31%    
  Jan 13, 2022 12   Ohio St. L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 18, 2022 58   @ Northwestern L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 21, 2022 24   Michigan St. W 66-65 51%    
  Jan 25, 2022 75   @ Nebraska W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 30, 2022 106   Minnesota W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 02, 2022 8   @ Illinois L 65-73 25%    
  Feb 05, 2022 53   Penn St. W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 08, 2022 24   @ Michigan St. L 63-69 33%    
  Feb 12, 2022 50   Rutgers W 66-62 61%    
  Feb 15, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 61-66 36%    
  Feb 20, 2022 2   Michigan L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 23, 2022 106   @ Minnesota W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 26, 2022 50   @ Rutgers L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 01, 2022 5   Purdue L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 06, 2022 75   Nebraska W 72-66 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 6.7 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 4.6 6.2 7.8 8.9 9.6 9.9 9.4 8.8 7.9 6.6 5.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 99.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 90.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
17-3 68.3% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 39.6% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.2% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 65.3% 34.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.6% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.5% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 2.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.9% 99.9% 15.5% 84.4% 3.5 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 5.2% 99.7% 10.9% 88.8% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 6.6% 98.2% 6.7% 91.4% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.0%
12-8 7.9% 94.0% 4.3% 89.7% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 93.7%
11-9 8.8% 83.7% 2.5% 81.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 83.3%
10-10 9.4% 61.3% 1.1% 60.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.6 60.8%
9-11 9.9% 31.4% 0.6% 30.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 31.0%
8-12 9.6% 9.1% 0.3% 8.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.8%
7-13 8.9% 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 1.5%
6-14 7.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.3%
5-15 6.2% 6.2
4-16 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 45.6% 3.8% 41.8% 6.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.5 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 54.4 43.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 66.7 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6