Preseason Rankings
Wright St.
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.3#55
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 2.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 39.9% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 3.1% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.0 12.3 13.8
.500 or above 87.0% 96.1% 81.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.0% 89.4%
Conference Champion 39.0% 51.6% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four1.2% 1.4% 1.1%
First Round29.5% 39.2% 23.1%
Second Round6.1% 10.1% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 415 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 118   @ Marshall L 80-83 40%    
  Nov 16, 2021 5   @ Purdue L 65-81 8%    
  Nov 22, 2021 238   George Washington W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 02, 2021 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-76 69%    
  Dec 04, 2021 151   @ Cleveland St. L 73-74 50%    
  Dec 15, 2021 128   Akron W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 18, 2021 301   Tennessee Tech W 84-69 88%    
  Dec 22, 2021 59   @ North Carolina St. L 71-79 25%    
  Dec 30, 2021 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82-73 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 316   Green Bay W 83-67 89%    
  Jan 06, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 80-68 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 333   IUPUI W 89-71 93%    
  Jan 10, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 13, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 15, 2022 281   @ Youngstown St. W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 20, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 86-74 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 28, 2022 151   Cleveland St. W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 30, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 85-73 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 05, 2022 221   Oakland W 84-74 78%    
  Feb 09, 2022 316   @ Green Bay W 80-70 77%    
  Feb 11, 2022 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 13, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 18, 2022 221   @ Oakland W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 20, 2022 212   @ Detroit Mercy W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 24, 2022 281   Youngstown St. W 83-70 85%    
  Feb 26, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 83-70 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 16 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.7 8.9 8.5 6.3 3.1 39.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.8 5.7 4.2 1.8 0.3 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.4 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 7.6 9.0 10.1 11.0 11.2 10.7 8.9 6.3 3.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
21-1 100.0% 6.3    6.2 0.1
20-2 96.4% 8.5    7.7 0.8 0.0
19-3 82.7% 8.9    6.9 1.9 0.1
18-4 59.6% 6.7    4.2 2.2 0.3 0.0
17-5 34.8% 3.8    1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
16-6 13.7% 1.4    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 39.0% 39.0 30.3 7.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 3.1% 82.1% 72.7% 9.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 34.5%
21-1 6.3% 69.7% 64.0% 5.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 1.9 15.7%
20-2 8.9% 57.2% 55.2% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.8 4.5%
19-3 10.7% 45.2% 44.5% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.9 1.3%
18-4 11.2% 37.4% 37.3% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1 7.0 0.2%
17-5 11.0% 28.7% 28.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.1 7.9
16-6 10.1% 23.2% 23.2% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.3 7.8
15-7 9.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 7.5
14-8 7.6% 11.3% 11.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 6.8
13-9 5.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.4
12-10 4.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.4
11-11 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.6
10-12 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.6
9-13 1.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-14 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-15 0.7% 0.7
6-16 0.5% 0.5
5-17 0.3% 0.3
4-18 0.2% 0.2
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21 0.0% 0.0
0-22
Total 100% 30.1% 29.2% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.5 4.7 7.8 6.8 4.6 2.0 69.9 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.7 7.2 10.2 28.5 28.6 17.8 3.5 3.3 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 5.8 35.0 47.5 17.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.9 17.1 14.6 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1