Preseason Rankings
Youngstown St.
Horizon
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#281
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#224
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#230
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#312
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 8.8% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.1 15.2
.500 or above 33.3% 72.2% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 36.4% 67.0% 35.2%
Conference Champion 2.4% 10.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 2.8% 13.0%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round2.5% 8.5% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 53   @ Penn St. L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 13, 2021 268   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 71-75 37%    
  Nov 19, 2021 353   St. Thomas W 81-65 91%    
  Nov 20, 2021 328   SIU Edwardsville W 75-68 72%    
  Nov 21, 2021 250   Niagara W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 02, 2021 205   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 04, 2021 316   @ Green Bay L 72-73 47%    
  Dec 08, 2021 279   Central Michigan W 80-77 59%    
  Dec 11, 2021 265   Canisius W 76-74 57%    
  Dec 22, 2021 32   @ West Virginia L 64-85 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 212   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 01, 2022 221   @ Oakland L 73-79 31%    
  Jan 05, 2022 282   @ Robert Morris L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2022 247   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 09, 2022 151   Cleveland St. L 69-73 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 166   Northern Kentucky L 68-72 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 115   Wright St. L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 21, 2022 151   @ Cleveland St. L 66-76 20%    
  Jan 23, 2022 247   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-79 36%    
  Jan 27, 2022 316   Green Bay W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 205   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 03, 2022 333   @ IUPUI W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 05, 2022 253   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 221   Oakland L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 11, 2022 212   Detroit Mercy L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 13, 2022 282   Robert Morris W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 17, 2022 253   Illinois-Chicago W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 19, 2022 333   IUPUI W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 24, 2022 115   @ Wright St. L 70-83 15%    
  Feb 26, 2022 166   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-75 23%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.6 3.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.8 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.4 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.1 11th
12th 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.3 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 12th
Total 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.4 6.9 8.0 8.7 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.0 7.1 6.1 4.8 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
20-2 92.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
19-3 73.8% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
18-4 53.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
17-5 31.5% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-6 11.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 22.2% 22.2% 5.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.1% 30.4% 30.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.3% 37.4% 36.6% 0.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3%
19-3 0.7% 34.5% 34.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-4 1.0% 24.1% 24.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-5 1.8% 17.4% 17.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
16-6 2.6% 13.6% 13.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.3
15-7 3.8% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.4
14-8 4.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.6
13-9 6.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.8
12-10 7.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.9
11-11 8.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
10-12 8.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.6
9-13 8.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.9
8-14 9.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.2
7-15 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
6-16 8.0% 8.0
5-17 6.9% 6.9
4-18 5.4% 5.4
3-19 3.9% 3.9
2-20 2.3% 2.3
1-21 1.2% 1.2
0-22 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%