Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Purdue 100.0%   1   29 - 4 17 - 3 29 - 4 17 - 3 +20.2      +13.1 4 +7.1 20 68.3 178 +22.5 2 +20.6 1
10 Illinois 100.0%   3   26 - 8 14 - 6 27 - 8 14 - 6 +16.9      +14.3 2 +2.6 96 73.4 56 +16.6 8 +15.9 2
18 Michigan St. 70.6%   10   19 - 14 10 - 10 20 - 14 10 - 10 +14.5      +5.5 53 +9.0 7 64.1 306 +11.0 49 +10.3 8
19 Wisconsin 99.9%   5   22 - 13 11 - 9 23 - 13 11 - 9 +14.0      +9.3 15 +4.7 43 63.8 309 +13.6 20 +12.1 5
27 Nebraska 89.1%   7   23 - 10 12 - 8 24 - 10 12 - 8 +13.0      +7.0 32 +6.0 28 70.6 109 +12.9 25 +12.5 4
38 Ohio St. 16.0%   20 - 13 9 - 11 20 - 13 9 - 11 +11.4      +6.8 35 +4.6 48 64.5 292 +10.5 56 +8.8 11
40 Northwestern 74.3%   10   21 - 11 12 - 8 22 - 11 12 - 8 +11.3      +7.4 29 +3.9 70 61.5 344 +12.4 27 +14.1 3
49 Iowa 5.2%   18 - 14 10 - 10 18 - 14 10 - 10 +10.4      +9.7 13 +0.8 146 77.1 18 +10.4 57 +11.0 7
60 Maryland 0.0%   16 - 17 7 - 13 16 - 17 7 - 13 +9.3      +1.1 148 +8.1 13 64.4 296 +6.8 88 +7.0 13
68 Penn St. 0.0%   16 - 17 9 - 11 16 - 17 9 - 11 +7.8      +3.9 83 +3.9 71 73.0 60 +6.4 91 +9.5 10
69 Minnesota 0.0%   18 - 14 9 - 11 18 - 14 9 - 11 +7.7      +6.2 43 +1.5 131 66.9 229 +7.9 74 +9.6 9
82 Indiana 0.6%   19 - 14 10 - 10 19 - 14 10 - 10 +6.8      +2.6 105 +4.2 60 70.4 114 +10.8 53 +11.3 6
96 Rutgers 0.0%   15 - 17 7 - 13 15 - 17 7 - 13 +5.9      -4.4 290 +10.3 5 69.0 157 +7.3 81 +7.7 12
117 Michigan 0.0%   8 - 24 3 - 17 8 - 24 3 - 17 +3.3      +2.8 103 +0.4 157 68.5 168 +2.1 131 +1.5 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Purdue 1.0 100.0
Illinois 2.0 100.0
Michigan St. 6.0 100.0
Wisconsin 5.0 100.0
Nebraska 3.0 100.0
Ohio St. 9.0 100.0
Northwestern 3.0 100.0
Iowa 6.0 100.0
Maryland 12.0 100.0
Penn St. 9.0 100.0
Minnesota 9.0 100.0
Indiana 6.0 100.0
Rutgers 12.0 100.0
Michigan 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Purdue 17 - 3 100.0
Illinois 14 - 6 100.0
Michigan St. 10 - 10 100.0
Wisconsin 11 - 9 100.0
Nebraska 12 - 8 100.0
Ohio St. 9 - 11 100.0
Northwestern 12 - 8 100.0
Iowa 10 - 10 100.0
Maryland 7 - 13 100.0
Penn St. 9 - 11 100.0
Minnesota 9 - 11 100.0
Indiana 10 - 10 100.0
Rutgers 7 - 13 100.0
Michigan 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Purdue 100.0% 100.0
Illinois
Michigan St.
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Ohio St.
Northwestern
Iowa
Maryland
Penn St.
Minnesota
Indiana
Rutgers
Michigan


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   83.4 16.5 0.1 100.0%
Illinois 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   2.8 22.9 46.0 26.8 1.5 0.0
Michigan St. 70.6% 0.0% 70.6% 10   0.1 0.9 2.1 7.9 16.9 31.8 10.9 29.4 70.6%
Wisconsin 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 5   0.0 1.1 15.2 61.3 20.5 1.7 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Nebraska 89.1% 0.0% 89.1% 7   0.2 8.1 21.1 25.8 19.5 11.2 3.0 0.1 10.9 89.1%
Ohio St. 16.0% 0.0% 16.0% 0.1 1.8 14.0 0.1 84.0 16.0%
Northwestern 74.3% 0.0% 74.3% 10   0.1 0.7 4.3 13.5 25.8 24.5 5.3 25.7 74.3%
Iowa 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0 0.2 4.8 0.2 94.8 5.2%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0 0.5 0.1 99.4 0.6%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8% 77.7% 55.0% 35.0% 19.7% 10.6%
Illinois 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.9% 63.7% 32.8% 15.1% 6.7% 2.6%
Michigan St. 70.6% 23.3% 61.7% 36.7% 12.9% 6.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Wisconsin 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 73.3% 35.3% 11.9% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6%
Nebraska 89.1% 0.6% 88.8% 51.4% 17.0% 6.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Ohio St. 16.0% 15.6% 8.4% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 74.3% 13.7% 67.4% 32.4% 7.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Iowa 5.2% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Michigan 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 5.6 0.0 0.5 7.9 36.2 46.4 8.7 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.9 13.6 44.9 37.2 3.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 3.9 0.5 6.7 26.7 39.4 22.6 4.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.4% 2.2 2.6 20.1 43.6 26.8 6.3 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 80.1% 1.2 19.9 49.0 26.8 4.0 0.3 0.0
Final Four 52.3% 0.6 47.7 44.9 7.2 0.2 0.0
Final Game 28.7% 0.3 71.3 27.5 1.2
Champion 14.4% 0.1 85.6 14.4