Pre-tourney Rankings
Southern
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Samford 100.0%   12   27 - 5 15 - 3 27 - 6 15 - 3 +6.4      +4.5 74 +1.9 120 79.7 9 +8.9 67 +7.9 1
121 Western Carolina 0.0%   19 - 10 11 - 7 19 - 10 11 - 7 +3.1      +1.7 132 +1.3 135 67.3 214 +3.0 121 +1.4 4
144 Furman 0.0%   15 - 15 10 - 8 15 - 15 10 - 8 +1.4      +2.6 106 -1.3 211 70.8 102 -0.1 164 +0.1 6
147 Chattanooga 0.0%   19 - 12 12 - 6 19 - 12 12 - 6 +1.2      +2.9 101 -1.7 223 67.3 217 +1.2 142 +3.2 3
154 UNC Greensboro 0.0%   19 - 11 12 - 6 19 - 11 12 - 6 +0.7      +1.6 135 -0.9 200 63.2 322 +2.6 125 +3.2 2
186 East Tennessee St. 0.0%   17 - 16 8 - 10 17 - 16 8 - 10 -1.1      -2.2 240 +1.1 139 67.3 215 -0.3 170 -2.6 8
199 Wofford 0.0%   14 - 15 10 - 8 14 - 15 10 - 8 -2.1      +0.6 162 -2.7 251 64.5 293 -0.4 173 +0.6 5
211 Mercer 0.0%   14 - 16 8 - 10 14 - 16 8 - 10 -2.6      -0.9 205 -1.7 229 65.4 268 -2.3 208 -2.4 7
267 The Citadel 0.0%   8 - 21 3 - 15 8 - 21 3 - 15 -5.5      -2.4 246 -3.1 265 64.4 294 -7.6 296 -11.8 9
359 VMI 0.0%   1 - 28 1 - 17 1 - 28 1 - 17 -16.8      -12.2 360 -4.6 316 85.0 2 -20.4 359 -16.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 1.0 100.0
Western Carolina 4.0 100.0
Furman 5.0 100.0
Chattanooga 2.0 100.0
UNC Greensboro 2.0 100.0
East Tennessee St. 7.0 100.0
Wofford 5.0 100.0
Mercer 7.0 100.0
The Citadel 9.0 100.0
VMI 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 15 - 3 100.0
Western Carolina 11 - 7 100.0
Furman 10 - 8 100.0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 100.0
UNC Greensboro 12 - 6 100.0
East Tennessee St. 8 - 10 100.0
Wofford 10 - 8 100.0
Mercer 8 - 10 100.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 100.0
VMI 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 100.0% 100.0
Western Carolina
Furman
Chattanooga
UNC Greensboro
East Tennessee St.
Wofford
Mercer
The Citadel
VMI


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12   0.4 40.6 56.3 2.6
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Furman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.4% 5.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 20.4% 0.2 79.6 20.4
Sweet Sixteen 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2
Elite Eight 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0