Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#9
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#16
Pace67.2#219
Improvement-0.3#201

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#8
First Shot+10.1#6
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#137
Layup/Dunks+6.6#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#143
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+2.6#37
Improvement+1.1#120

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#27
First Shot+3.9#53
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#20
Layups/Dunks+0.6#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement-1.4#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 1.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 9.5% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 90.2% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 99.8% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 3.6 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.8% n/a n/a
Second Round90.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen62.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight29.5% n/a n/a
Final Four14.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game6.5% n/a n/a
National Champion2.8% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 4
Quad 26 - 411 - 8
Quad 37 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 327   Dartmouth W 92-54 99%     1 - 0 +24.2 +17.9 +7.5
  Nov 10, 2023 5   Arizona L 73-78 51%     1 - 1 +11.9 +1.3 +11.0
  Nov 14, 2023 18   Michigan St. W 74-65 60%     2 - 1 +23.5 +11.9 +11.8
  Nov 17, 2023 269   Bucknell W 90-60 98%     3 - 1 +21.8 +17.1 +5.6
  Nov 21, 2023 192   La Salle W 95-66 97%     4 - 1 +24.8 +17.7 +6.6
  Nov 24, 2023 331   Southern Indiana W 80-62 99%     5 - 1 +4.0 +7.4 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2023 104   @ Arkansas L 75-80 81%     5 - 2 +2.6 -1.1 +4.1
  Dec 02, 2023 115   @ Georgia Tech L 68-72 85%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +1.9 +2.9 -1.3
  Dec 09, 2023 116   Charlotte W 80-56 93%     6 - 3 +24.7 +16.3 +11.1
  Dec 12, 2023 122   Hofstra W 89-68 93%     7 - 3 +21.3 +19.6 +2.5
  Dec 20, 2023 14   Baylor W 78-70 57%     8 - 3 +23.3 +13.8 +10.0
  Dec 30, 2023 258   Queens W 106-69 98%     9 - 3 +29.4 +19.8 +6.6
  Jan 02, 2024 85   Syracuse W 86-66 88%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +24.1 +10.5 +12.5
  Jan 06, 2024 110   @ Notre Dame W 67-59 84%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +14.5 +1.2 +13.3
  Jan 09, 2024 33   @ Pittsburgh W 75-53 60%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +36.4 +19.6 +20.2
  Jan 13, 2024 115   Georgia Tech W 84-79 93%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +5.7 +11.5 -5.7
  Jan 20, 2024 33   Pittsburgh L 76-80 77%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +5.2 +8.3 -3.2
  Jan 23, 2024 179   @ Louisville W 83-69 92%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +15.7 +14.6 +1.8
  Jan 27, 2024 36   Clemson W 72-71 78%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +10.1 +3.0 +7.1
  Jan 29, 2024 61   @ Virginia Tech W 77-67 70%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +21.6 +14.3 +8.2
  Feb 03, 2024 8   @ North Carolina L 84-93 38%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +11.2 +15.2 -3.3
  Feb 07, 2024 110   Notre Dame W 71-53 92%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +19.3 +7.8 +12.9
  Feb 10, 2024 74   Boston College W 80-65 87%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +19.7 +11.6 +8.7
  Feb 12, 2024 32   Wake Forest W 77-69 76%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +17.8 +8.5 +9.5
  Feb 17, 2024 79   @ Florida St. W 76-67 76%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +18.6 +11.1 +7.8
  Feb 21, 2024 94   @ Miami (FL) W 84-55 79%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +37.7 +28.4 +13.9
  Feb 24, 2024 32   @ Wake Forest L 79-83 58%     21 - 6 12 - 4 +11.0 +23.7 -13.3
  Feb 28, 2024 179   Louisville W 84-59 96%     22 - 6 13 - 4 +21.5 +14.5 +8.6
  Mar 02, 2024 66   Virginia W 73-48 85%     23 - 6 14 - 4 +30.8 +15.3 +18.0
  Mar 04, 2024 56   @ North Carolina St. W 79-64 68%     24 - 6 15 - 4 +27.2 +25.4 +4.6
  Mar 09, 2024 8   North Carolina L 79-84 58%     24 - 7 15 - 5 +10.0 +13.2 -3.1
  Mar 14, 2024 56   North Carolina St. L 69-74 76%     24 - 8 +4.6 -0.3 +4.8
  Mar 22, 2024 109   Vermont W 74-61 89%    
Projected Record 25 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 99.8% 99.8% 3.6 1.2 8.3 30.2 50.5 9.4 0.2 0.2 99.8%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 3.6 1.2 8.3 30.2 50.5 9.4 0.2 0.2 99.8%