Pre-tourney Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#213
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#204
Pace64.4#295
Improvement-0.4#204

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#219
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#146
Layup/Dunks+4.1#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#245
Freethrows-1.8#301
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#210
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#298
Layups/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
Freethrows+2.9#23
Improvement+0.3#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 11
Quad 20 - 40 - 15
Quad 31 - 41 - 19
Quad 410 - 211 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 173   @ Kent St. L 69-79 33%     0 - 1 -8.0 -1.5 -6.8
  Nov 15, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 87-68 86%     1 - 1 +4.9 +0.0 +3.3
  Nov 21, 2023 280   New Mexico St. W 81-76 OT 63%     2 - 1 -1.0 +1.8 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2023 64   James Madison L 64-95 14%     2 - 2 -22.2 -8.0 -12.9
  Nov 27, 2023 198   UC Santa Barbara L 65-69 58%     2 - 3 -8.7 -12.4 +3.8
  Dec 01, 2023 17   BYU L 56-85 6%     2 - 4 -14.4 -11.3 -3.7
  Dec 05, 2023 254   Idaho St. W 79-67 68%     3 - 4 +4.4 +3.6 +1.1
  Dec 09, 2023 353   Pacific W 89-56 91%     4 - 4 +15.4 +20.1 +0.0
  Dec 15, 2023 227   Cal St. Bakersfield W 61-58 63%     5 - 4 -2.9 -5.5 +2.9
  Dec 18, 2023 253   Portland St. L 72-75 OT 68%     5 - 5 -10.4 -4.9 -5.4
  Dec 22, 2023 72   @ San Francisco L 57-77 12%     5 - 6 -9.9 -7.4 -3.3
  Dec 29, 2023 257   @ San Diego W 71-67 49%     6 - 6 +1.6 -2.7 +4.3
  Jan 03, 2024 28   @ San Diego St. L 47-74 6%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -11.5 -13.2 +0.0
  Jan 06, 2024 41   Nevada L 57-72 14%     6 - 8 0 - 2 -6.3 -4.9 -3.4
  Jan 13, 2024 151   @ Wyoming L 67-68 27%     6 - 9 0 - 3 +2.7 +2.1 +0.5
  Jan 16, 2024 231   San Jose St. W 85-82 63%     7 - 9 1 - 3 -3.1 +13.4 -16.3
  Jan 20, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 62-83 8%     7 - 10 1 - 4 -8.3 -7.0 -0.9
  Jan 23, 2024 45   Boise St. L 68-72 15%     7 - 11 1 - 5 +4.2 +10.4 -6.8
  Jan 27, 2024 244   Air Force W 84-70 65%     8 - 11 2 - 5 +7.3 +16.5 -7.3
  Jan 30, 2024 73   @ UNLV L 69-78 12%     8 - 12 2 - 6 +1.1 -1.2 +2.5
  Feb 03, 2024 48   Colorado St. L 61-73 16%     8 - 13 2 - 7 -4.0 +2.8 -9.0
  Feb 06, 2024 231   @ San Jose St. W 69-57 43%     9 - 13 3 - 7 +11.1 -3.3 +14.9
  Feb 10, 2024 244   @ Air Force W 68-66 45%     10 - 13 4 - 7 +0.5 -1.3 +2.0
  Feb 14, 2024 73   UNLV L 65-67 24%     10 - 14 4 - 8 +2.9 +6.1 -3.6
  Feb 17, 2024 45   @ Boise St. L 66-90 7%     10 - 15 4 - 9 -10.6 +7.0 -20.0
  Feb 24, 2024 28   San Diego St. L 41-73 12%     10 - 16 4 - 10 -21.7 -17.4 -9.9
  Feb 27, 2024 52   Utah St. L 73-77 OT 17%     10 - 17 4 - 11 +3.5 +0.6 +3.0
  Mar 01, 2024 41   @ Nevada L 66-74 7%     10 - 18 4 - 12 +5.9 +5.5 -0.4
  Mar 06, 2024 24   @ New Mexico L 58-79 5%     10 - 19 4 - 13 -5.3 -7.9 +3.0
  Mar 09, 2024 151   Wyoming L 47-86 46%     10 - 20 4 - 14 -40.5 -23.4 -21.0
  Mar 13, 2024 151   Wyoming W 77-73 36%     11 - 20 +5.1 +4.2 +0.9
  Mar 14, 2024 52   Utah St. L 75-87 OT 12%     11 - 21 -1.9 +0.8 -1.9
Projected Record 11 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 100.0% 100.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%