Pre-tourney Rankings
Montana St.
Big Sky
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#214
Expected Predictive Rating-3.2#229
Pace70.5#112
Improvement+3.3#54

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#228
First Shot+1.2#147
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#343
Layup/Dunks-2.9#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#59
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+3.0#45

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#202
First Shot-2.2#254
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#78
Layups/Dunks-4.3#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#20
Freethrows-3.1#340
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 16.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four100.0% n/a n/a
First Round63.2% n/a n/a
Second Round0.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 410 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 119   @ Seattle L 68-71 21%     0 - 1 +2.7 -1.1 +3.9
  Nov 16, 2023 113   @ California W 63-60 20%     1 - 1 +9.2 -0.4 +9.9
  Nov 20, 2023 242   Green Bay L 53-54 OT 65%     1 - 2 -7.7 -20.4 +12.6
  Nov 22, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 69-68 58%     2 - 2 -3.8 +0.3 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2023 160   Long Beach St. L 69-75 48%     2 - 3 -8.3 -3.7 -4.8
  Dec 05, 2023 65   @ Washington L 61-85 10%     2 - 4 -12.6 -9.1 -3.0
  Dec 19, 2023 246   Southern Utah W 89-88 OT 65%     3 - 4 -5.8 +1.1 -7.0
  Dec 22, 2023 229   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-82 42%     3 - 5 -12.8 -5.5 -6.5
  Dec 28, 2023 254   @ Idaho St. W 74-66 48%     4 - 5 1 - 0 +5.6 +4.6 +1.6
  Dec 30, 2023 162   @ Weber St. L 64-86 29%     4 - 6 1 - 1 -19.2 -5.6 -14.7
  Jan 03, 2024 274   Oral Roberts L 76-82 71%     4 - 7 -14.4 -7.0 -7.0
  Jan 06, 2024 139   @ South Dakota St. L 61-89 25%     4 - 8 -23.7 -12.2 -10.5
  Jan 11, 2024 311   Northern Arizona W 79-50 78%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +17.9 +2.4 +15.9
  Jan 13, 2024 206   Northern Colorado W 90-81 58%     6 - 8 3 - 1 +4.0 +4.4 -1.0
  Jan 20, 2024 158   Montana L 77-87 48%     6 - 9 3 - 2 -12.3 +0.1 -12.6
  Jan 22, 2024 254   Idaho St. W 77-70 68%     7 - 9 4 - 2 -0.6 +6.1 -6.1
  Jan 25, 2024 302   @ Sacramento St. W 70-62 60%     8 - 9 5 - 2 +2.7 +3.5 +0.1
  Jan 27, 2024 253   @ Portland St. L 91-94 48%     8 - 10 5 - 3 -5.2 +12.0 -17.0
  Feb 01, 2024 152   Eastern Washington W 70-60 46%     9 - 10 6 - 3 +8.3 -9.4 +17.4
  Feb 03, 2024 320   Idaho L 75-81 81%     9 - 11 6 - 4 -17.9 -2.9 -15.0
  Feb 08, 2024 206   @ Northern Colorado L 70-73 38%     9 - 12 6 - 5 -2.8 -5.9 +3.1
  Feb 10, 2024 311   @ Northern Arizona L 71-76 62%     9 - 13 6 - 6 -10.9 -10.0 -0.4
  Feb 17, 2024 158   @ Montana L 69-88 29%     9 - 14 6 - 7 -16.1 -0.7 -16.9
  Feb 22, 2024 253   Portland St. W 72-67 67%     10 - 14 7 - 7 -2.4 -5.1 +2.5
  Feb 24, 2024 302   Sacramento St. L 63-66 77%     10 - 15 7 - 8 -13.5 -14.3 +0.9
  Feb 29, 2024 320   @ Idaho W 62-48 65%     11 - 15 8 - 8 +7.3 -3.5 +13.1
  Mar 02, 2024 152   @ Eastern Washington L 104-108 OT 27%     11 - 16 8 - 9 -0.5 +9.8 -9.6
  Mar 04, 2024 162   Weber St. W 76-64 48%     12 - 16 9 - 9 +9.6 +5.4 +5.0
  Mar 11, 2024 162   Weber St. W 91-82 39%     13 - 16 +9.2 +13.9 -5.0
  Mar 12, 2024 302   Sacramento St. W 74-71 69%     14 - 16 -4.9 +0.8 -5.5
  Mar 13, 2024 158   Montana W 85-70 38%     15 - 16 +15.3 +9.7 +5.8
  Mar 20, 2024 282   Grambling St. W 69-66 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 16 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0