Pre-tourney Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#8
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#6
Pace74.5#43
Improvement-1.3#246

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#22
First Shot+7.2#25
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#114
Layup/Dunks+1.0#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows+3.9#11
Improvement-2.7#315

Defense
Total Defense+9.4#6
First Shot+5.3#28
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#2
Layups/Dunks+3.9#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows+2.6#29
Improvement+1.4#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 27.7% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 87.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round95.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen68.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight39.7% n/a n/a
Final Four19.7% n/a n/a
Championship Game9.1% n/a n/a
National Champion4.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 3
Quad 27 - 416 - 7
Quad 36 - 022 - 7
Quad 45 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 238   Radford W 86-70 98%     1 - 0 +9.6 +6.0 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2023 255   Lehigh W 90-68 98%     2 - 0 +14.4 +8.8 +4.0
  Nov 17, 2023 202   UC Riverside W 77-52 97%     3 - 0 +20.2 +1.8 +18.5
  Nov 22, 2023 111   Northern Iowa W 91-69 90%     4 - 0 +25.7 +16.0 +8.7
  Nov 23, 2023 35   Villanova L 81-83 OT 71%     4 - 1 +9.8 +10.4 -0.5
  Nov 24, 2023 104   Arkansas W 87-72 88%     5 - 1 +20.0 +15.3 +4.6
  Nov 29, 2023 6   Tennessee W 100-92 57%     6 - 1 +23.9 +28.9 -5.6
  Dec 02, 2023 79   Florida St. W 78-70 89%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +12.4 +3.6 +8.4
  Dec 05, 2023 1   Connecticut L 76-87 31%     7 - 2 +11.7 +11.0 +0.8
  Dec 16, 2023 16   Kentucky L 83-87 61%     7 - 3 +10.8 +1.8 +9.5
  Dec 20, 2023 37   Oklahoma W 81-69 72%     8 - 3 +23.5 +8.7 +13.9
  Dec 29, 2023 316   Charleston Southern W 105-60 99%     9 - 3 +33.4 +25.8 +6.1
  Jan 02, 2024 33   @ Pittsburgh W 70-57 62%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +27.4 +5.5 +22.4
  Jan 06, 2024 36   @ Clemson W 65-55 63%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +24.3 +6.5 +19.2
  Jan 10, 2024 56   @ North Carolina St. W 67-54 70%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +25.2 -3.5 +28.2
  Jan 13, 2024 85   Syracuse W 103-67 89%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +40.1 +14.9 +19.2
  Jan 17, 2024 179   Louisville W 86-70 96%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +12.5 +11.4 +1.1
  Jan 20, 2024 74   @ Boston College W 76-66 77%     15 - 3 7 - 0 +19.9 +8.7 +11.4
  Jan 22, 2024 32   Wake Forest W 85-64 77%     16 - 3 8 - 0 +30.8 +11.7 +18.2
  Jan 27, 2024 79   @ Florida St. W 75-68 78%     17 - 3 9 - 0 +16.6 +6.8 +9.8
  Jan 30, 2024 115   @ Georgia Tech L 73-74 86%     17 - 4 9 - 1 +4.9 -1.1 +6.1
  Feb 03, 2024 9   Duke W 93-84 62%     18 - 4 10 - 1 +23.5 +17.9 +4.8
  Feb 06, 2024 36   Clemson L 76-80 79%     18 - 5 10 - 2 +5.1 +3.3 +2.0
  Feb 10, 2024 94   @ Miami (FL) W 75-72 80%     19 - 5 11 - 2 +11.7 +3.1 +8.5
  Feb 13, 2024 85   @ Syracuse L 79-86 79%     19 - 6 11 - 3 +2.3 +17.2 -15.5
  Feb 17, 2024 61   Virginia Tech W 96-81 85%     20 - 6 12 - 3 +21.4 +18.4 +2.2
  Feb 24, 2024 66   @ Virginia W 54-44 74%     21 - 6 13 - 3 +21.0 +0.3 +22.3
  Feb 26, 2024 94   Miami (FL) W 75-71 90%     22 - 6 14 - 3 +7.5 -0.8 +8.1
  Mar 02, 2024 56   North Carolina St. W 79-70 84%     23 - 6 15 - 3 +16.0 +10.1 +6.1
  Mar 05, 2024 110   Notre Dame W 84-51 93%     24 - 6 16 - 3 +34.3 +18.1 +17.3
  Mar 09, 2024 9   @ Duke W 84-79 42%     25 - 6 17 - 3 +24.7 +17.8 +6.8
  Mar 14, 2024 79   Florida St. W 92-67 84%     26 - 6 +32.0 +19.6 +11.5
  Mar 15, 2024 33   Pittsburgh W 72-65 71%     27 - 6 +18.8 +8.9 +10.4
  Mar 16, 2024 56   North Carolina St. L 76-84 78%     27 - 7 +1.6 +2.3 -0.3
Projected Record 27 - 7 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.9 27.7 59.3 12.5 0.5 100.0%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 27.7 59.3 12.5 0.5 100.0%