Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#28
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#26
Pace65.8#258
Improvement-1.1#238

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#72
First Shot+5.5#43
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#251
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement-1.9#279

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#10
First Shot+6.1#22
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#30
Layups/Dunks+5.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement+0.7#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.1% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 37.8% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.4% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.4% n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% n/a n/a
First Round95.3% n/a n/a
Second Round55.2% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen18.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight7.2% n/a n/a
Final Four2.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.8% n/a n/a
National Champion0.2% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 26 - 110 - 10
Quad 36 - 016 - 10
Quad 46 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 225   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-57 95%     1 - 0 +20.1 +2.5 +15.5
  Nov 10, 2023 17   @ BYU L 65-74 34%     1 - 1 +8.1 -2.3 +10.5
  Nov 14, 2023 160   Long Beach St. W 88-76 92%     2 - 1 +9.7 +3.5 +4.9
  Nov 17, 2023 21   St. Mary's W 79-54 48%     3 - 1 +38.5 +23.4 +18.2
  Nov 19, 2023 65   Washington W 100-97 OT 66%     4 - 1 +11.8 +16.1 -4.7
  Nov 25, 2023 113   California W 76-67 OT 81%     5 - 1 +12.6 +1.8 +10.5
  Dec 01, 2023 120   @ UC San Diego W 63-62 76%     6 - 1 +6.7 -0.1 +7.0
  Dec 05, 2023 59   @ Grand Canyon L 73-79 53%     6 - 2 +6.0 +9.1 -3.4
  Dec 09, 2023 77   UC Irvine W 63-62 79%     7 - 2 +5.5 -2.3 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2023 98   Stanford W 74-60 83%     8 - 2 +16.8 +4.1 +13.2
  Dec 29, 2023 15   @ Gonzaga W 84-74 32%     9 - 2 +27.9 +13.1 +14.3
  Jan 03, 2024 213   Fresno St. W 74-47 94%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +21.7 +3.3 +20.2
  Jan 06, 2024 73   UNLV W 72-61 78%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +15.9 +4.0 +12.3
  Jan 09, 2024 231   @ San Jose St. W 81-78 90%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +2.1 +9.4 -7.1
  Jan 13, 2024 24   @ New Mexico L 70-88 39%     12 - 3 3 - 1 -2.3 -2.7 +2.4
  Jan 17, 2024 41   Nevada W 71-59 66%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +20.7 +8.7 +13.2
  Jan 20, 2024 45   @ Boise St. L 66-67 48%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +12.4 +3.9 +8.5
  Jan 23, 2024 151   Wyoming W 81-65 90%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +14.5 +9.3 +5.8
  Jan 30, 2024 48   @ Colorado St. L 71-79 49%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +5.2 +8.5 -3.8
  Feb 03, 2024 52   Utah St. W 81-67 70%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +21.5 +12.5 +9.4
  Feb 06, 2024 244   @ Air Force W 77-64 90%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +11.5 +12.7 +0.7
  Feb 09, 2024 41   @ Nevada L 66-70 OT 46%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +9.9 -2.7 +12.7
  Feb 13, 2024 48   Colorado St. W 71-55 68%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +24.0 +3.5 +21.0
  Feb 16, 2024 24   New Mexico W 81-70 59%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +21.5 +7.0 +13.6
  Feb 20, 2024 52   @ Utah St. L 63-68 51%     18 - 7 9 - 5 +7.7 +0.8 +6.5
  Feb 24, 2024 213   @ Fresno St. W 73-41 88%     19 - 7 10 - 5 +31.9 +13.2 +24.4
  Feb 27, 2024 231   San Jose St. W 72-64 95%     20 - 7 11 - 5 +1.9 -0.2 +2.7
  Mar 05, 2024 73   @ UNLV L 58-62 61%     20 - 8 11 - 6 +6.1 +0.1 +5.3
  Mar 08, 2024 45   Boise St. L 77-79 OT 67%     20 - 9 11 - 7 +6.2 +5.9 +0.4
  Mar 14, 2024 73   @ UNLV W 74-71 OT 61%     21 - 9 +13.1 +5.3 +7.8
  Mar 15, 2024 52   Utah St. W 86-70 61%     22 - 9 +26.1 +19.6 +7.0
  Mar 16, 2024 24   New Mexico L 61-68 49%     22 - 10 +6.1 +0.6 +4.8
  Mar 22, 2024 99   UAB W 76-68 77%    
Projected Record 23 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 95.4% 95.4% 7.0 0.1 7.6 30.1 26.4 19.8 9.6 1.8 0.1 4.6 95.4%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.4% 0.0% 95.4% 7.0 0.1 7.6 30.1 26.4 19.8 9.6 1.8 0.1 4.6 95.4%