Pre-tourney Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#55
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#48
Pace65.4#254
Improvement-4.6#334

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#117
First Shot+0.4#155
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#90
Layup/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#192
Freethrows-0.1#179
Improvement-2.0#275

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#15
First Shot+9.5#8
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#270
Layups/Dunks+10.0#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#227
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement-2.6#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.1% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.1% n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.9 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four34.2% n/a n/a
First Round32.9% n/a n/a
Second Round9.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen2.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.5% n/a n/a
Final Four0.1% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 8
Quad 34 - 112 - 9
Quad 48 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 42   UC San Diego W 63-58 54%     1 - 0 +14.4 -0.6 +15.3
  Nov 18, 2024 10   Gonzaga L 67-80 29%     1 - 1 +3.3 +1.1 +2.0
  Nov 26, 2024 35   Creighton W 71-53 38%     2 - 1 +31.7 +9.6 +23.4
  Nov 27, 2024 34   Oregon L 68-78 37%     2 - 2 +3.9 +4.9 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2024 4   Houston W 73-70 OT 12%     3 - 2 +26.2 +19.4 +7.1
  Dec 04, 2024 259   @ Fresno St. W 84-62 88%     4 - 2 1 - 0 +19.5 +2.9 +14.4
  Dec 07, 2024 311   San Diego W 74-57 97%     5 - 2 +5.2 -7.6 +11.9
  Dec 11, 2024 164   California Baptist W 81-75 89%     6 - 2 +2.9 +19.3 -15.5
  Dec 21, 2024 108   California W 71-50 74%     7 - 2 +24.9 +2.4 +23.6
  Dec 28, 2024 53   Utah St. L 66-67 60%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +6.9 -7.7 +14.6
  Jan 04, 2025 50   @ Boise St. W 76-68 37%     8 - 3 2 - 1 +21.8 +10.9 +11.1
  Jan 08, 2025 296   Air Force W 67-38 96%     9 - 3 3 - 1 +18.5 -4.5 +25.3
  Jan 11, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 48-62 32%     9 - 4 3 - 2 +1.2 -13.2 +13.9
  Jan 14, 2025 44   Colorado St. W 75-60 55%     10 - 4 4 - 2 +24.1 +9.0 +15.7
  Jan 18, 2025 94   UNLV L 68-76 78%     10 - 5 4 - 3 -5.5 -3.7 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2025 296   @ Air Force W 77-76 OT 92%     11 - 5 5 - 3 -4.0 +3.0 -7.0
  Jan 25, 2025 83   @ Nevada W 69-50 54%     12 - 5 6 - 3 +28.4 +18.4 +14.9
  Jan 28, 2025 151   San Jose St. W 71-68 88%     13 - 5 7 - 3 +0.8 -1.4 +2.3
  Feb 01, 2025 175   Wyoming W 63-61 90%     14 - 5 8 - 3 -1.7 -4.6 +3.1
  Feb 08, 2025 44   @ Colorado St. L 63-68 34%     14 - 6 8 - 4 +9.6 +7.0 +1.8
  Feb 11, 2025 151   @ San Jose St. W 69-66 75%     15 - 6 9 - 4 +6.3 -1.1 +7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 50   Boise St. W 64-47 58%     16 - 6 10 - 4 +25.3 +3.2 +24.4
  Feb 18, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 83-60 95%     17 - 6 11 - 4 +15.0 +9.5 +6.1
  Feb 22, 2025 53   @ Utah St. L 71-79 39%     17 - 7 11 - 5 +5.4 +7.7 -3.1
  Feb 25, 2025 41   New Mexico W 73-65 53%     18 - 7 12 - 5 +17.7 +6.1 +11.6
  Mar 01, 2025 175   @ Wyoming W 72-69 79%     19 - 7 13 - 5 +4.8 +9.1 -4.0
  Mar 04, 2025 94   @ UNLV L 67-74 60%     19 - 8 13 - 6 +1.0 +2.0 -1.2
  Mar 08, 2025 83   Nevada W 80-61 73%     20 - 8 14 - 6 +22.9 +14.1 +10.1
  Mar 13, 2025 50   Boise St. L 52-62 48%     20 - 9 +1.1 -8.9 +8.7
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 52.1% 52.1% 10.9 0.1 1.5 9.9 34.3 6.3 47.9 52.1%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 52.1% 0.0% 52.1% 10.9 0.1 1.5 9.9 34.3 6.3 47.9 52.1%