Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#52
Pace65.6#247
Improvement+2.4#90

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#44
First Shot+0.3#162
After Offensive Rebound+6.4#3
Layup/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#116
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement+3.6#28

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#35
First Shot+7.4#18
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#230
Layups/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#4
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement-1.2#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 10.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round42.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen13.8% n/a n/a
Elite Eight4.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 26 - 48 - 5
Quad 36 - 014 - 5
Quad 413 - 127 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   Bellarmine W 84-65 99%     1 - 0 +4.1 +4.2 +0.9
  Nov 08, 2024 170   Boston College W 80-55 90%     2 - 0 +24.4 +5.1 +18.7
  Nov 13, 2024 196   Merrimack W 63-42 95%     3 - 0 +16.3 -9.0 +25.0
  Nov 16, 2024 309   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 98%     4 - 0 +14.3 +2.5 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2024 169   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 90%     4 - 1 -3.6 -7.9 +4.5
  Nov 22, 2024 83   Nevada L 61-64 75%     4 - 2 +3.7 +0.8 +2.4
  Nov 24, 2024 174   Miami (FL) W 77-70 91%     5 - 2 +6.1 +6.6 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 255   Georgia Southern W 89-54 97%     6 - 2 +27.3 +14.7 +13.5
  Dec 09, 2024 281   Penn W 66-47 97%     7 - 2 +9.3 -8.1 +19.0
  Dec 14, 2024 44   Colorado St. W 76-68 57%     8 - 2 +19.9 +12.9 +7.5
  Dec 18, 2024 41   @ New Mexico L 71-78 44%     8 - 3 +8.2 +4.7 +3.9
  Dec 22, 2024 234   William & Mary W 90-70 96%     9 - 3 +13.2 +7.9 +4.4
  Dec 31, 2024 112   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 76%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +4.4 +17.1 -13.0
  Jan 04, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 74%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +25.8 +22.1 +5.1
  Jan 08, 2025 227   Fordham W 73-61 96%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +5.7 +0.1 +6.4
  Jan 14, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 78-62 87%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +17.5 +13.3 +5.8
  Jan 17, 2025 80   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-69 65%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +18.7 +9.2 +9.4
  Jan 21, 2025 154   @ Rhode Island W 81-57 84%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +27.2 +1.2 +23.6
  Jan 24, 2025 112   St. Bonaventure W 75-61 88%     15 - 4 6 - 1 +14.9 +8.6 +7.0
  Jan 28, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis L 69-78 74%     15 - 5 6 - 2 -2.0 -3.7 +2.2
  Feb 01, 2025 225   Richmond W 90-49 96%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +34.8 +31.0 +11.2
  Feb 04, 2025 212   La Salle W 96-66 95%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +24.3 +28.2 -1.6
  Feb 07, 2025 77   @ Dayton W 73-68 64%     18 - 5 9 - 2 +15.0 +3.9 +11.0
  Feb 12, 2025 117   @ George Washington W 80-72 77%     19 - 5 10 - 2 +13.7 +18.5 -4.0
  Feb 19, 2025 198   Massachusetts W 80-51 95%     20 - 5 11 - 2 +24.2 +15.9 +11.7
  Feb 22, 2025 82   George Mason W 70-54 82%     21 - 5 12 - 2 +20.0 +10.0 +11.5
  Feb 25, 2025 225   @ Richmond W 78-60 90%     22 - 5 13 - 2 +17.3 +18.0 +2.2
  Feb 28, 2025 145   Davidson W 80-56 92%     23 - 5 14 - 2 +22.1 +14.8 +10.3
  Mar 04, 2025 127   @ Duquesne W 71-62 80%     24 - 5 15 - 2 +13.9 +7.2 +7.4
  Mar 07, 2025 77   Dayton L 76-79 81%     24 - 6 15 - 3 +1.5 +10.5 -9.4
  Mar 14, 2025 112   St. Bonaventure W 76-59 83%     25 - 6 +20.6 +14.2 +8.0
  Mar 15, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 62-55 82%     26 - 6 +11.1 -0.3 +12.2
  Mar 16, 2025 82   George Mason W 68-63 75%     27 - 6 +11.7 +9.7 +2.5
Projected Record 27 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 10.7 0.0 0.7 7.0 27.8 54.7 9.8
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 10.7 0.0 0.7 7.0 27.8 54.7 9.8