Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
171 Colgate 26.1%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 12 - 6 -0.3      -1.0 207 +0.7 145 65.7 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
199 Lafayette 20.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 -1.6      -3.5 282 +1.9 114 64.3 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 American 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -4.6      -1.6 228 -2.9 274 59.6 357 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 Navy 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -4.9      -3.7 290 -1.2 211 64.4 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 Lehigh 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -5.0      -3.2 274 -1.8 236 73.9 52 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Boston University 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -5.0      -3.7 289 -1.4 220 65.1 277 0.0 1 0.0 1
268 Bucknell 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 10 - 8 -5.2      -3.6 284 -1.6 226 63.3 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Army 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -8.9      -6.7 347 -2.2 248 59.9 355 0.0 1 0.0 1
348 Holy Cross 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -12.0      -5.0 317 -7.0 360 64.8 287 0.0 1 0.0 1
350 Loyola Maryland 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 5 - 13 -12.7      -7.8 353 -4.8 330 65.3 272 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.9 35.4 20.0 14.3 10.3 7.3 5.5 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.4
Lafayette 3.3 26.5 19.6 14.9 11.8 9.2 6.9 5.0 3.3 1.9 0.8
American 4.6 12.6 13.3 13.3 13.2 11.8 10.9 9.6 7.5 5.2 2.6
Navy 4.7 11.3 12.6 12.9 13.1 12.4 11.5 10.0 8.0 5.5 2.7
Lehigh 4.8 10.9 12.2 12.3 12.8 12.5 11.5 10.4 8.2 5.7 3.3
Boston University 4.8 10.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 12.5 11.4 10.2 8.2 5.7 3.1
Bucknell 4.8 10.1 11.9 12.7 12.5 12.7 11.8 10.7 8.7 6.0 3.0
Army 6.5 3.2 4.9 6.6 8.2 10.1 11.9 13.8 15.6 14.5 11.1
Holy Cross 7.8 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.2 6.1 8.4 11.7 16.2 22.4 25.6
Loyola Maryland 8.0 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.5 5.2 7.4 10.8 15.8 22.6 30.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.9 4.8 6.3 8.3 10.4 12.2 12.9 12.4 10.9 8.7 5.0 1.8
Lafayette 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.2 9.9 11.2 12.2 12.3 11.1 8.6 6.2 3.1 1.0
American 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.0 9.6 11.0 11.6 11.3 9.9 8.4 6.4 4.3 2.3 0.9 0.2
Navy 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.7 8.5 10.3 11.2 11.7 10.8 9.8 7.9 5.9 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2
Lehigh 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.3 4.9 7.0 8.8 10.4 11.4 11.3 10.6 9.3 7.8 5.7 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.2
Boston University 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.0 8.7 10.2 11.2 11.6 10.9 9.5 7.7 5.6 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.2 9.2 10.5 11.6 11.3 10.8 9.3 7.3 5.4 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.1
Army 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.9 6.4 8.3 10.5 11.8 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.0 6.0 4.4 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 5 - 13 2.1 5.5 9.1 11.8 13.2 12.9 12.0 10.1 7.7 5.8 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 5 - 13 2.7 6.7 10.5 13.3 13.3 13.1 11.2 9.4 6.9 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 35.4% 25.9 7.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 26.5% 18.6 6.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
American 12.6% 7.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Navy 11.3% 6.9 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Lehigh 10.9% 6.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Boston University 10.8% 6.6 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 10.1% 6.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Army 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.9% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Maryland 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.0 6.6 6.7 73.9 0.0%
Lafayette 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 4.5 5.4 6.3 79.7 0.0%
American 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.8 89.4 0.0%
Navy 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.5 90.3 0.0%
Lehigh 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 90.4 0.0%
Boston University 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 5.6 90.7 0.0%
Bucknell 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.4 91.0 0.0%
Army 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.3 96.7 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colgate 26.1% 3.6% 24.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 20.3% 3.3% 18.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 10.6% 2.9% 9.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 9.7% 2.6% 8.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 9.7% 2.6% 8.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.3% 3.7% 7.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 9.0% 2.7% 7.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 88.1% 0.9 11.9 88.1 0.0
2nd Round 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0