Preseason Rankings
Texas St.
Sun Belt
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#185
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#248
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#225
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 7.7% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 48.4% 54.3% 27.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 61.4% 43.6%
Conference Champion 7.5% 8.6% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 4.7% 9.9%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round6.6% 7.6% 3.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 49 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 287   Eastern Michigan W 71-63 78%    
  Nov 12, 2024 53   @ TCU L 65-78 11%    
  Nov 16, 2024 184   @ Abilene Christian L 68-71 38%    
  Nov 21, 2024 92   Bradley L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 01, 2024 261   @ Texas Southern W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 08, 2024 211   Rice W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 14, 2024 97   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-76 20%    
  Dec 21, 2024 209   Georgia Southern W 74-69 66%    
  Dec 29, 2024 145   Texas Arlington W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 02, 2025 194   @ Marshall L 71-73 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 139   @ Appalachian St. L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 129   @ Troy L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 236   @ Southern Miss L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 15, 2025 204   Georgia St. W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 18, 2025 236   Southern Miss W 72-66 68%    
  Jan 22, 2025 156   @ Louisiana L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 25, 2025 134   @ Arkansas St. L 69-75 32%    
  Jan 30, 2025 156   Louisiana W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   Arkansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 227   @ Old Dominion L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 296   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 223   @ South Alabama L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 296   Louisiana Monroe W 73-64 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   South Alabama W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 25, 2025 129   Troy W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 107   James Madison L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 7.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.0 0.9 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 4.2 1.6 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.1 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.4 1.0 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.2 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.9 7.8 9.6 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.5 6.7 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 92.7% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 71.7% 2.2    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 38.3% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.3% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 69.0% 49.2% 19.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 38.9%
17-1 0.6% 45.1% 39.4% 5.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9.5%
16-2 1.7% 36.6% 35.4% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.8%
15-3 3.1% 29.4% 29.3% 0.1% 12.5 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.1%
14-4 4.9% 20.8% 20.8% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.9
13-5 6.7% 17.2% 17.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5
12-6 8.5% 10.9% 10.9% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.6
11-7 10.0% 7.7% 7.7% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.2
10-8 10.9% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.4
9-9 11.1% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.8
8-10 10.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
7-11 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-12 7.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.8
5-13 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.9
4-14 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 93.3 0.1%