Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

View: Probabilistic Seeding

Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
1 Michigan At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
1 Arizona Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
1 Duke Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
1 Florida At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
2 Houston At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
2 Connecticut At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
2 Purdue Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
2 Iowa St. At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
3 Virginia At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
3 Michigan St. At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
3 Gonzaga Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
3 Vanderbilt At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
4 Illinois At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
4 Nebraska At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
4 St. John's Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
4 Arkansas Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
5 Alabama At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
5 Kansas At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
5 Wisconsin At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
5 Texas Tech At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
6 Tennessee At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
6 Louisville At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
6 North Carolina At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
6 BYU At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
7 St. Mary's At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
7 UCLA At-Large Lock 100% 100% 99%
7 Kentucky At-Large Lock 100% 100% 99%
7 Miami (FL) At-Large Lock 100% 100% 100%
8 Utah St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
8 Clemson At-Large Lock 100% 100% 98%
8 Georgia At-Large Likely In 99% 99% 95%
8 Ohio St. At-Large Likely In 97% 97% 90%
Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
9 Villanova At-Large Lock 100% 100% 98%
9 TCU At-Large Likely In 99% 99% 95%
9 Iowa At-Large Likely In 91% 91% 81%
9 Saint Louis At-Large Likely In 92% 92% 84%
10 Virginia Commonwealth Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
10 North Carolina St. At-Large Likely In 90% 90% 80%
10 Santa Clara At-Large Likely In 87% 87% 75%
10 Texas A&M At-Large Likely In 85% 85% 72%
11 South Florida Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
11 Miami (OH) At-Large Likely In 84% 84% 73%
11 Central Florida At-Large ✓ Likely In 83% 83% 70%
11 Missouri At-Large ✓ Bubble 69% 69% 60%
11 Texas At-Large ✓ Bubble 53% 53% 49%
11 SMU At-Large ✓ Bubble 56% 56% 50%
12 McNeese St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
12 Akron Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
12 Northern Iowa Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
12 High Point Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
13 California Baptist Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
13 Hofstra Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
13 Hawaii Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
13 Troy Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
14 Penn Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
14 North Dakota St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
14 Wright St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
14 Kennesaw St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
15 Idaho Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
15 Tennessee St. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
15 Furman Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 100%
15 Siena Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 99%
16 Queens Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 98%
16 Maryland Baltimore Co. Auto Auto Bid 100% 100% 97%
16 LIU Brooklyn Auto ✓ Auto Bid 100% 100% 3%
16 Howard Auto ✓ Auto Bid 100% 100% 2%
16 Prairie View Auto ✓ Auto Bid 100% 100%
16 Lehigh Auto ✓ Auto Bid 100% 100%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Missouri Bubble - In 69% 69% 60%
SMU Bubble - In 56% 56% 50%
Texas Bubble - In 53% 53% 49%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 40% 40% 41%
Auburn Bubble - Out 38% 38% 40%
Oklahoma Bubble - Out 26% 26% 34%
Stanford Bubble - Out 21% 21% 30%
Indiana Bubble - Out 20% 20% 31%
Cincinnati Likely Out 12% 12% 27%
Virginia Tech Likely Out 11% 11% 25%
New Mexico Likely Out 9% 9% 23%
Seton Hall Likely Out 10% 10% 24%
Belmont Likely Out 9% 9% 22%
California Likely Out 5% 5% 22%
West Virginia Likely Out 3% 3% 19%
Boise St. Likely Out 3% 3% 17%
Oklahoma St. Likely Out 3% 3% 18%
Florida St. Likely Out 3% 3% 16%
Arizona St. Likely Out 2% 2% 14%
Dayton Likely Out 2% 2% 13%
Tulsa Likely Out 1% 1% 13%