NCAA Tournament Selection Simulation
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

View: Most Likely Seeding
View: At-Large Selection Details


Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.


Team At-Large Chances Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Michigan Lock 100% 100% 100% 1 100
Arizona Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 1 100
Duke Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 1 100
Florida Lock 100% 100% 100% 1 66 29 5
Houston Lock 100% 100% 100% 2 18 66 15 1
Connecticut Lock 100% 100% 100% 2 8 57 29 6
Purdue Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 2 8 55 31 7
Iowa St. Lock 100% 100% 100% 2 39 39 19 3
Virginia Lock 100% 100% 100% 3 29 43 24 4
Michigan St. Lock 100% 100% 100% 3 26 41 26 6
Gonzaga Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 3 26 33 30 11
Vanderbilt Lock 100% 100% 100% 3 23 32 33 12
Illinois Lock 100% 100% 100% 4 19 34 35 12 1
Nebraska Lock 100% 100% 100% 4 8 25 40 26 1
St. John's Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 4 8 24 39 25 4
Arkansas Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 4 6 17 37 36 4
Alabama Lock 100% 100% 100% 5 5 16 35 39 6
Kansas Lock 100% 100% 100% 5 2 8 28 53 10
Texas Tech Lock 100% 100% 100% 5 1 4 16 46 32 2
Wisconsin Lock 100% 100% 100% 5 2 12 58 27 1
Tennessee Lock 100% 100% 100% 6 2 8 27 54 9
Louisville Lock 100% 100% 100% 6 1 3 25 60 11 1
North Carolina Lock 100% 100% 100% 6 1 8 54 32 5
BYU Lock 100% 100% 100% 6 1 6 49 38 7
Saint Mary's Lock 100% 100% 100% 7 1 23 45 25 5
UCLA Lock 100% 100% 99% 7 1 17 41 32 8 1
Miami (FL) Lock 100% 100% 100% 7 1 15 41 36 7
Kentucky Lock 100% 100% 99% 7 1 15 41 33 8 1
Utah St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 8 9 36 41 14
Clemson Lock 100% 100% 98% 8 7 30 43 17 2
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Georgia Likely In 99% 99% 95% 8 5 23 41 24 1 5 1 1
Ohio St. Likely In 97% 97% 90% 8 5 20 34 26 2 9 1 3
Villanova Lock 100% 100% 98% 9 2 13 32 44 8 1
TCU Likely In 99% 99% 95% 9 1 7 27 52 8 4 1 1
Iowa Likely In 91% 91% 81% 9 1 7 20 37 9 15 2 9
Saint Louis Likely In 92% 92% 84% 9 2 10 40 25 11 4 8
North Carolina St. Likely In 90% 90% 80% 10 1 7 36 27 16 2 10
Texas A&M Likely In 85% 85% 72% 10 1 6 30 24 21 4 15
VCU Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 10 1 14 72 13
Santa Clara Likely In 87% 87% 75% 10 2 20 40 19 5 13
Central Florida Likely In 83% 83% 70% 11 6 42 30 4 17
South Florida Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 11 2 51 47
Missouri Bubble - In 69% 69% 60% 11 3 31 30 5 31
Texas Bubble - In 53% 53% 49% 11 3 19 27 5 47
SMU Bubble - In 56% 56% 50% 11 2 18 30 6 45
Auburn Bubble - Out 38% 38% 40% 7 25 6 62
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 40% 40% 41% 7 26 6 60
Miami (OH) Likely In 84% 84% 73% 11 1 83 1 16
Oklahoma Bubble - Out 26% 26% 34% 2 19 4 74
Indiana Bubble - Out 20% 20% 31% 2 14 4 80
Cincinnati Likely Out 12% 12% 27% 1 9 2 88
Stanford Bubble - Out 21% 21% 30% 1 16 4 79
Seton Hall Likely Out 10% 10% 24% 8 2 90
New Mexico Likely Out 9% 9% 23% 7 2 91
Virginia Tech Likely Out 11% 11% 25% 9 3 89
West Virginia Likely Out 3% 3% 19% 2 1 97
Boise St. Likely Out 3% 3% 17% 2 1 97
Florida St. Likely Out 3% 3% 16% 2 1 97
Belmont Likely Out 9% 9% 22% 7 2 91
Arizona St. Likely Out 2% 2% 14% 1 0 98
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Tulsa Likely Out 1% 1% 13% 1 0 99
Oklahoma St. Likely Out 3% 3% 18% 2 1 97
Dayton Likely Out 2% 2% 13% 1 0 98
California Likely Out 5% 5% 22% 4 2 95
Akron Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 12 21 78
McNeese St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 12 19 81
Northern Iowa Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 12 99 1
High Point Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 12 73 27
Hofstra Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 13 26 74
California Baptist Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 13 3 97
Hawaii Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 13 89 11
Troy Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 13 84 16
North Dakota St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 14 27 73
Penn Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 14 100
Wright St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 14 100
Kennesaw St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 14 94 6
Tennessee St. Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 15 4 94 2
Idaho Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 15 2 97
Furman Auto Bid 100% 100% 100% 15 69 31
Siena Auto Bid 100% 100% 99% 15 55 45
Queens Auto Bid 100% 100% 98% 16 42 58
Maryland Baltimore Co. Auto Bid 100% 100% 97% 16 36 64
LIU Brooklyn Auto Bid 100% 100% 3% 16 100
Howard Auto Bid 100% 100% 2% 16 100
Lehigh Auto Bid 100% 100% 0% 16 100
Prairie View Auto Bid 100% 100% 0% 16 100
USC Negligible 100
Nevada Negligible 100
Grand Canyon Negligible 100
Yale Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Colorado Negligible 100
Baylor Negligible 100
Wake Forest Negligible 100
Wichita St. Negligible 100
Colorado St. Negligible 100
George Mason Negligible 100
Stephen F. Austin Negligible 100
Liberty Negligible 100
Washington Negligible 100
Utah Valley Negligible 100
UNC Wilmington Negligible 100
Butler Negligible 100
Saint Joseph's Negligible 100
Creighton Negligible 100
Minnesota Negligible 100
Illinois St. Negligible 100
Syracuse Negligible 100
LSU Negligible 100
Mississippi Negligible 100
Northwestern Negligible 100
UNLV Negligible 100
Georgetown Negligible 100
Murray St. Negligible 100
Wyoming Negligible 100
Providence Negligible 100
UAB Negligible 100
DePaul Negligible 100
Kent St. Negligible 100
Davidson Negligible 100
Bradley Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Sam Houston St. Negligible 100
George Washington Negligible 100
UC Irvine Negligible 100
Xavier Negligible 100
Seattle Negligible 100
St. Thomas Negligible 100
UC San Diego Negligible 100
Illinois-Chicago Negligible 100
Winthrop Negligible 100
Notre Dame Negligible 100
Navy Negligible 100
Duquesne Negligible 100
North Texas Negligible 100
College of Charleston Negligible 100
Mississippi St. Negligible 100
Florida Atlantic Negligible 100
San Francisco Negligible 100
Pacific Negligible 100
William & Mary Negligible 100
Austin Peay Negligible 100
Rutgers Negligible 100
Merrimack Negligible 100
Arkansas St. Negligible 100
South Carolina Negligible 100
Pittsburgh Negligible 100
Robert Morris Negligible 100
Kansas St. Negligible 100
Toledo Negligible 100
Rhode Island Negligible 100
Marquette Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Oregon Negligible 100
East Tennessee St. Negligible 100
Southern Illinois Negligible 100
Central Arkansas Negligible 100
Oregon St. Negligible 100
Harvard Negligible 100
Valparaiso Negligible 100
Portland St. Negligible 100
Western Kentucky Negligible 100
UT Rio Grande Valley Negligible 100
South Alabama Negligible 100
Towson Negligible 100
Maryland Negligible 100
Marshall Negligible 100
Cornell Negligible 100
Texas Arlington Negligible 100
Northern Colorado Negligible 100
Cal St. Northridge Negligible 100
UC Davis Negligible 100
Montana St. Negligible 100
St. Bonaventure Negligible 100
Tulane Negligible 100
Middle Tennessee St. Negligible 100
Utah Tech Negligible 100
Penn St. Negligible 100
Monmouth Negligible 100
Mercer Negligible 100
Columbia Negligible 100
Memphis Negligible 100
Appalachian St. Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Lipscomb Negligible 100
Fordham Negligible 100
Louisiana Tech Negligible 100
Bowling Green Negligible 100
Quinnipiac Negligible 100
Charlotte Negligible 100
UC Santa Barbara Negligible 100
Temple Negligible 100
Oakland Negligible 100
Tennessee Martin Negligible 100
Coastal Carolina Negligible 100
Northern Kentucky Negligible 100
Saint Peter's Negligible 100
Utah Negligible 100
James Madison Negligible 100
TX A&M Corpus Christi Negligible 100
Cal St. Fullerton Negligible 100
Richmond Negligible 100
Marist Negligible 100
Montana Negligible 100
Massachusetts Negligible 100
Boston College Negligible 100
Texas St. Negligible 100
Fresno St. Negligible 100
Wofford Negligible 100
Georgia Tech Negligible 100
Morehead St. Negligible 100
Vermont Negligible 100
New Mexico St. Negligible 100
Georgia Southern Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Samford Negligible 100
Loyola Marymount Negligible 100
Buffalo Negligible 100
Iona Negligible 100
Detroit Mercy Negligible 100
Campbell Negligible 100
Drexel Negligible 100
Fairfield Negligible 100
Washington St. Negligible 100
Southeast Missouri St. Negligible 100
Green Bay Negligible 100
Bethune-Cookman Negligible 100
Southern Miss Negligible 100
Colgate Negligible 100
Ohio Negligible 100
Jacksonville St. Negligible 100
Stony Brook Negligible 100
Florida International Negligible 100
Eastern Washington Negligible 100
Weber St. Negligible 100
North Dakota Negligible 100
American Negligible 100
New Orleans Negligible 100
Cal Poly Negligible 100
Central Connecticut St. Negligible 100
SIU Edwardsville Negligible 100
Portland Negligible 100
Rice Negligible 100
Purdue Fort Wayne Negligible 100
Western Carolina Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Drake Negligible 100
Boston University Negligible 100
Mount St. Mary's Negligible 100
Missouri St. Negligible 100
Denver Negligible 100
Radford Negligible 100
South Dakota Negligible 100
Elon Negligible 100
Florida Gulf Coast Negligible 100
Lindenwood Negligible 100
Dartmouth Negligible 100
Youngstown St. Negligible 100
UNC Asheville Negligible 100
Longwood Negligible 100
Charleston Southern Negligible 100
Abilene Christian Negligible 100
Nicholls St. Negligible 100
Alabama A&M Negligible 100
Florida A&M Negligible 100
Nebraska Omaha Negligible 100
South Dakota St. Negligible 100
Tarleton St. Negligible 100
Indiana St. Negligible 100
East Carolina Negligible 100
San Diego Negligible 100
Southern Negligible 100
Wisconsin-Milwaukee Negligible 100
Mercyhurst Negligible 100
Old Dominion Negligible 100
Princeton Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
San Jose St. Negligible 100
Presbyterian Negligible 100
Bellarmine Negligible 100
Hampton Negligible 100
La Salle Negligible 100
Le Moyne Negligible 100
Idaho St. Negligible 100
West Georgia Negligible 100
UNC Greensboro Negligible 100
Delaware Negligible 100
NJIT Negligible 100
Lamar Negligible 100
Sacred Heart Negligible 100
Chattanooga Negligible 100
Eastern Michigan Negligible 100
UC Riverside Negligible 100
Ball St. Negligible 100
UMass Lowell Negligible 100
Brown Negligible 100
Jacksonville Negligible 100
Long Beach St. Negligible 100
Arkansas Pine Bluff Negligible 100
Southern Utah Negligible 100
Sacramento St. Negligible 100
New Haven Negligible 100
Norfolk St. Negligible 100
Louisiana Negligible 100
Stetson Negligible 100
UTEP Negligible 100
Central Michigan Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Wagner Negligible 100
N.C. A&T Negligible 100
Loyola Chicago Negligible 100
Morgan St. Negligible 100
Incarnate Word Negligible 100
Arkansas Little Rock Negligible 100
Houston Christian Negligible 100
Eastern Kentucky Negligible 100
Tennessee Tech Negligible 100
Texas Southern Negligible 100
Western Michigan Negligible 100
Eastern Illinois Negligible 100
Manhattan Negligible 100
SC Upstate Negligible 100
Grambling St. Negligible 100
NC Central Negligible 100
Jackson St. Negligible 100
Pepperdine Negligible 100
Lafayette Negligible 100
Cleveland St. Negligible 100
Loyola Maryland Negligible 100
Northeastern Negligible 100
Stonehill Negligible 100
Georgia St. Negligible 100
East Texas A&M Negligible 100
Fairleigh Dickinson Negligible 100
Albany Negligible 100
Holy Cross Negligible 100
Oral Roberts Negligible 100
Northwestern St. Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Alabama St. Negligible 100
Army Negligible 100
Canisius Negligible 100
SE Louisiana Negligible 100
Evansville Negligible 100
New Hampshire Negligible 100
Bucknell Negligible 100
Northern Illinois Negligible 100
Niagara Negligible 100
Northern Arizona Negligible 100
Alcorn St. Negligible 100
North Alabama Negligible 100
IU Indianapolis Negligible 100
The Citadel Negligible 100
Southern Indiana Negligible 100
Maine Negligible 100
South Carolina St. Negligible 100
MD Eastern Shore Negligible 100
Cal St. Bakersfield Negligible 100
Chicago St. Negligible 100
Bryant Negligible 100
Delaware St. Negligible 100
Binghamton Negligible 100
Coppin St. Negligible 100
North Florida Negligible 100
Saint Francis (PA) Negligible 100
Texas San Antonio Negligible 100
Air Force Negligible 100
UMKC Negligible 100
Rider Negligible 100
Team At-Large Status Total Auto At-Large Opening Bye Exp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
VMI Negligible 100
Gardner-Webb Negligible 100
Louisiana Monroe Negligible 100
Western Illinois Negligible 100
Mississippi Valley St. Negligible 100