Big Ten
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Illinois 98%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +21.4 3 A+ +13 1 A +8 13 0 2 0 1
Michigan St. 95%   2   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +18.7 8 A +9 14 A +9 7 0 2 0 1
Michigan 91%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.2 15 A- +9 19 A +8 11 0 2 0 1
Nebraska 79%   6   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +15.4 23 A- +8 33 A- +7 18 0 2 0 1
UCLA 82%   5   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +15.2 24 A- +8 28 A- +7 23 0 2 0 1
Purdue 87%   5   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.9 25 A- +9 25 B+ +6 30 0 2 0 1
Ohio St. 76%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +14.5 28 A- +8 27 B+ +6 32 0 2 0 1
Indiana 70%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.8 31 A- +8 35 B+ +6 37 0 2 0 1
USC 78%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.7 32 B+ +7 43 A- +7 22 0 2 0 1
Maryland 63%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.6 41 B+ +7 42 B+ +6 40 0 2 0 1
Wisconsin 73%   7   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.6 42 B+ +7 39 B+ +5 42 0 2 0 1
Iowa 57%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +12.0 46 B+ +7 46 B+ +5 46 0 2 0 1
Oregon 44%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +10.0 57 B +6 53 B +4 69 0 2 0 1
Minnesota 36%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.8 59 B +5 69 B+ +5 49 0 2 0 1
Washington 29%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 75 B +5 68 B- +3 88 0 2 0 1
Rutgers 17%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.0 82 B- +4 71 B- +3 92 0 2 0 1
Northwestern 18%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.2 88 B- +4 83 B- +3 93 0 2 0 1
Penn St. 9%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +5.5 96 B- +4 72 C+ +1 118 0 2 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 5 Arizona 74 24 UCLA 69 67%   
Mon, Nov 2 9 Gonzaga 74 25 Purdue 70 62%   
Mon, Nov 2 26 BYU 76 28 Ohio St. 75 51%   
Mon, Nov 2 8 Michigan St. 84 234 Quinnipiac 58 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 15 Michigan 90 214 Oakland 67 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 339 Fairleigh Dickinson 50 3 Illinois 85 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 241 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 65 32 USC 86 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 255 Denver 66 42 Wisconsin 87 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 207 Montana 65 57 Oregon 81 93%   
Mon, Nov 2 320 Le Moyne 58 23 Nebraska 86 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 206 Colgate 65 75 Washington 78 90%   
Mon, Nov 2 340 Bucknell 56 41 Maryland 82 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 356 Eastern Illinois 53 31 Indiana 82 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 59 Minnesota 77 324 North Dakota 55 97%   
Mon, Nov 2 348 Binghamton 58 88 Northwestern 78 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 345 Canisius 61 96 Penn St. 80 96%   
Tue, Nov 3 46 Iowa 77 193 Lipscomb 60 94%   
Thu, Nov 5 3 Illinois 85 127 Penn 62 97%   
Thu, Nov 5 8 Michigan St. 82 150 Toledo 61 97%   
Thu, Nov 5 300 Bellarmine 59 31 Indiana 83 98%   
Thu, Nov 5 275 Chattanooga 66 96 Penn St. 81 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 15 Michigan 70 4 Connecticut 73 61%   
Fri, Nov 6 25 Purdue 75 145 Valparaiso 58 94%   
Fri, Nov 6 59 Minnesota 73 152 St. Thomas 61 88%   
Fri, Nov 6 164 Eastern Washington 65 57 Oregon 79 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 28 Ohio St. 82 267 Youngstown St. 59 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 263 Delaware 59 42 Wisconsin 80 96%   
Fri, Nov 6 321 North Florida 60 24 UCLA 88 99%   
Fri, Nov 6 88 Northwestern 75 225 Stony Brook 62 88%   
Fri, Nov 6 356 Eastern Illinois 49 46 Iowa 77 99%   
Fri, Nov 6 352 New Haven 54 82 Rutgers 76 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Illinois 4 31% 20% 8% 4% 31 18 12 10 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Michigan St. 5 19% 11% 5% 3% 19 15 12 10 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0
Michigan 6 14% 8% 4% 2% 14 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0
Purdue 6 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0
UCLA 6 11% 6% 3% 2% 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0
Nebraska 7 9% 4% 3% 2% 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1
Ohio St. 7 8% 4% 2% 1% 8 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1
USC 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1
Wisconsin 8 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1
Indiana 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1
Maryland 9 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
Iowa 10 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2
Oregon 11 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 4
Minnesota 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 5
Washington 12 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9
Rutgers 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 11 12 12 14
Northwestern 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 7 9 11 12 15 16
Penn St. 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Illinois 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 15 16 16 12 7 3 1 0
Michigan St. 13 - 7 22 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 8 4 2 0 0
Michigan 12 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0 0
Purdue 12 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
UCLA 12 - 8 21 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Nebraska 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 8 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
USC 11 - 9 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Wisconsin 10 - 10 19 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Indiana 10 - 10 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 13 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Maryland 10 - 10 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Iowa 9 - 11 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Oregon 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 14 13 13 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Minnesota 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 13 14 14 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Washington 8 - 12 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Rutgers 7 - 13 15 - 15 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 14 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 4 7 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Penn St. 6 - 14 15 - 16 0 2 4 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Illinois 98% 17% 97% 1 Likely In 26 20 15 11 8 5 4 3 2 2 2 2
Michigan St. 95% 13% 94% 2 Likely In 16 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 3 4 5
Michigan 91% 11% 90% 3 Likely In 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 5 9
Nebraska 79% 6% 77% 6 Bubble - In 4 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 8 10 1 21
UCLA 82% 8% 80% 5 Bubble - In 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 7 9 1 18
Purdue 87% 10% 86% 5 Likely In 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 1 13
Ohio St. 76% 6% 74% 7 Bubble - In 4 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 8 10 1 24
Indiana 70% 4% 69% 9 Bubble - In 3 3 5 6 7 6 7 7 6 9 11 1 30
USC 78% 6% 76% 7 Bubble - In 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 10 2 22
Maryland 63% 4% 61% 11 Bubble - In 2 2 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 8 11 2 37
Wisconsin 73% 5% 71% 7 Bubble - In 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 10 2 27
Iowa 57% 3% 56% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 8 12 2 43
Oregon 44% 2% 43% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 11 3 56
Minnesota 36% 1% 35% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 11 2 64
Washington 29% 1% 28% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 8 2 71
Rutgers 17% 1% 16% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 1 83
Northwestern 18% 0% 17% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 6 1 82
Penn St. 9% 0% 9% Likely Out 1 1 1 4 1 91

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 11.0 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 2
1st Round 100% 9.8 0 0 3 11 25 31 21 8 1 0
2nd Round 100% 6.7 0 1 5 14 24 27 19 8 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 100% 3.6 0 4 16 28 28 16 5 1 0 0
Elite Eight 91% 1.8 9 31 35 19 5 1 0 0
Final Four 67% 0.9 33 45 19 3 0
Final Game 41% 0.5 59 37 5
Champion 23% 0.2 77 23

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Illinois 98% 3% 96% 82% 52% 30% 17% 9% 5%
Michigan St. 95% 6% 92% 74% 44% 25% 13% 7% 4%
Michigan 91% 8% 87% 67% 39% 21% 11% 6% 3%
Nebraska 79% 17% 71% 47% 24% 12% 6% 3% 1%
UCLA 82% 15% 75% 52% 29% 14% 7% 4% 2%
Purdue 87% 10% 83% 61% 34% 18% 10% 5% 2%
Ohio St. 76% 17% 68% 44% 22% 11% 5% 3% 1%
Indiana 70% 18% 61% 38% 18% 8% 4% 2% 1%
USC 78% 16% 69% 46% 23% 11% 5% 3% 1%
Maryland 63% 18% 54% 32% 15% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Wisconsin 73% 16% 65% 43% 22% 11% 5% 3% 1%
Iowa 57% 19% 48% 27% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Oregon 44% 17% 35% 19% 8% 3% 2% 1%
Minnesota 36% 16% 27% 14% 6% 2% 1%
Washington 29% 13% 22% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Rutgers 17% 9% 12% 5% 2% 1%
Northwestern 18% 9% 13% 6% 2% 1%
Penn St. 9% 6% 6% 2% 1%