Atlantic 10
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Saint Louis 45%   12   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.1 59 B+ +6 49 B +4 77 +4 84 0 1
VCU 45%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.1 61 B +5 67 B +5 52 +7 62 0 1
Dayton 22%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.8 66 B- +4 87 B+ +5 49 -1 270 0 1
George Washington 19%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 79 B- +3 91 B +4 64 +1 130 0 1
George Mason 9%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.8 98 C+ +2 111 B- +3 81 +3 101 0 1
Davidson 11%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.0 107 C+ +2 114 C+ +2 110 +15 9 0 1
Richmond 5%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +2.7 118 C+ +2 108 C +0 146 +2 107 0 1
Duquesne 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.2 123 C+ +1 128 C+ +1 132 0 137 0 1
Fordham 3%   Likely Out 0 - 1 0 - 0 +2.2 124 C +1 140 C+ +2 116 +10 38 0 1
Saint Joseph's 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.9 128 C- -1 199 B- +3 84 0 137 0 1
Rhode Island 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 130 C +0 149 C+ +1 123 0 137 0 1
Loyola Chicago 3%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +1.0 138 C +0 150 C+ +1 136 -1 273 0 1
St. Bonaventure 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.0 166 C -1 180 C +0 164 -20 359 0 1
La Salle 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.7 177 C +0 171 C- -1 204 +10 33 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 124 Fordham 65 6 Kansas 95   
Mon, Nov 2 4 Houston 94 177 La Salle 55   
Mon, Nov 2 207 Arkansas Little Rock 72 61 Virginia Commonwealth 82   
Mon, Nov 2 266 Lehigh 67 59 Saint Louis 92   
Mon, Nov 2 107 Davidson 76 165 Washington St. 61   
Mon, Nov 2 98 George Mason 82 292 Maryland Baltimore Co. 54   
Mon, Nov 2 79 George Washington 91 322 Navy 39   
Mon, Nov 2 66 Dayton 89 336 NJIT 58   
Mon, Nov 2 166 St. Bonaventure 71 226 Youngstown St. 79   
Mon, Nov 2 118 Richmond 100 298 UNC Asheville 77   
Mon, Nov 2 138 Loyola Chicago 77 340 The Citadel 52   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 123 Duquesne 79 265 Purdue Fort Wayne 68 85%   
Tue, Nov 3 347 Holy Cross 59 130 Rhode Island 76 93%   
Wed, Nov 4 211 Longwood 66 128 Saint Joseph's 74 78%   
Thu, Nov 5 138 Loyola Chicago 76 312 West Georgia 63 88%   
Thu, Nov 5 124 Fordham 77 351 Stonehill 59 94%   
Fri, Nov 6 35 Missouri 78 59 Saint Louis 75 62%   
Fri, Nov 6 359 Coppin St. 56 98 George Mason 78 97%   
Sat, Nov 7 81 Memphis 78 61 Virginia Commonwealth 77 51%   
Sat, Nov 7 79 George Washington 77 210 Hampton 63 90%   
Sat, Nov 7 66 Dayton 82 264 Northern Illinois 64 94%   
Sat, Nov 7 107 Davidson 74 234 Mercer 63 85%   
Sat, Nov 7 178 Monmouth 66 130 Rhode Island 69 62%   
Sat, Nov 7 254 LIU Brooklyn 68 177 La Salle 75 74%   
Sat, Nov 7 344 Lafayette 60 128 Saint Joseph's 76 93%   
Sat, Nov 7 352 Canisius 65 166 St. Bonaventure 73 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 3 36% 24% 9% 3% 36 21 14 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
VCU 3 32% 21% 8% 3% 32 20 14 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
Dayton 4 19% 11% 5% 2% 19 16 15 12 10 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 0
George Washington 4 18% 10% 6% 2% 18 17 15 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
George Mason 6 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 8 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Richmond 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4
Duquesne 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6
Rhode Island 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6
Saint Joseph's 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6
Davidson 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 3 4 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5
Fordham 9 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8
Loyola Chicago 9 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8
St. Bonaventure 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 7 7 8 10 10 12 13 14
La Salle 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 15 17

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 12 - 6 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 15 16 14 10 6 2 0
VCU 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 11 13 16 16 13 9 5 2 0
Dayton 11 - 7 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 14 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0
George Washington 11 - 7 21 - 10 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 9 5 2 1 0
George Mason 9 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 15 15 13 9 5 3 1 0 0
Richmond 8 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Duquesne 8 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0
Rhode Island 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 3 1 1 0 0
Saint Joseph's 8 - 10 16 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 9 11 14 14 13 11 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Davidson 8 - 7 17 - 11 0 0 1 3 6 9 13 16 16 14 10 7 3 1 0 0
Fordham 7 - 9 16 - 12 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 12 10 6 3 1 0 0 0
Loyola Chicago 7 - 11 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 14 - 17 0 1 4 7 11 14 15 14 12 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
La Salle 6 - 12 11 - 18 0 2 4 9 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Saint Louis 45% 23% 29% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 6 14 1 55
VCU 45% 22% 30% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 7 13 1 55
Dayton 22% 14% 10% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 4 10 1 78
George Washington 19% 12% 8% Likely Out 1 1 3 2 10 2 81
George Mason 9% 7% 3% Likely Out 0 1 1 5 2 91
Davidson 11% 4% 7% Likely Out 1 2 1 6 1 89
Richmond 5% 4% 1% Likely Out 0 0 3 1 95
Duquesne 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 97
Fordham 3% 2% 1% Likely Out 0 2 1 97
Saint Joseph's 4% 3% 1% Likely Out 0 2 1 0 96
Rhode Island 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 97
Loyola Chicago 3% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 97
St. Bonaventure 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
La Salle 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.7 40 46 13 1 0
1st Round 100% 1.5 0 54 39 6 0
2nd Round 48% 0.6 52 41 7 0
Sweet Sixteen 19% 0.2 81 18 1 0
Elite Eight 7% 0.1 93 7 0
Final Four 3% 0.0 97 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 45% 13% 39% 17% 7% 3% 1%
VCU 45% 13% 39% 18% 7% 3% 1%
Dayton 22% 6% 20% 7% 2% 1%
George Washington 19% 5% 17% 6% 2% 1%
George Mason 9% 2% 8% 2% 1%
Davidson 11% 5% 8% 2% 1%
Richmond 5% 1% 5% 1%
Duquesne 3% 3% 1%
Fordham 3% 1% 3% 1%
Saint Joseph's 4% 3% 1%
Rhode Island 3% 3% 1%
Loyola Chicago 3% 2% 1%
St. Bonaventure 1% 1%
La Salle 1% 1%