Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28

Last Updated: Nov 5, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding

Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
1 Florida Auto Lock 100% 18% 100% 100%
1 UCLA At-Large Likely In 99% 10% 99% 99%
1 Gonzaga Auto Likely In 100% 43% 99% 99%
1 Houston Auto Likely In 99% 19% 98% 97%
2 Duke Auto Likely In 99% 29% 99% 98%
2 Illinois Auto Likely In 98% 19% 98% 97%
2 Kansas At-Large Likely In 99% 17% 98% 98%
2 Connecticut Auto Likely In 96% 29% 95% 96%
3 Michigan St. At-Large Likely In 97% 15% 96% 95%
3 Alabama At-Large Likely In 93% 10% 92% 94%
3 Tennessee At-Large Likely In 92% 12% 91% 91%
3 Michigan At-Large Likely In 92% 10% 91% 93%
4 St. John's At-Large Likely In 94% 19% 93% 92%
4 Virginia At-Large Likely In 93% 18% 92% 90%
4 Louisville At-Large Likely In 93% 15% 92% 90%
4 Texas Tech At-Large Likely In 89% 14% 87% 88%
5 Texas At-Large Likely In 89% 12% 87% 88%
5 Arizona At-Large Likely In 91% 11% 89% 88%
5 BYU At-Large Likely In 97% 7% 97% 97%
5 Purdue At-Large Likely In 84% 8% 83% 87%
6 Vanderbilt At-Large Likely In 82% 7% 80% 79%
6 Kentucky At-Large Bubble 79% 7% 78% 78%
6 USC At-Large Likely In 82% 7% 80% 80%
6 Nebraska At-Large Bubble 79% 7% 77% 78%
7 Missouri At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 74% 78%
7 Texas A&M At-Large Bubble 76% 6% 74% 76%
7 Auburn At-Large Bubble 78% 5% 77% 77%
7 Arkansas At-Large Bubble 73% 6% 71% 75%
8 Marquette At-Large Bubble 74% 10% 72% 76%
8 Miami (FL) At-Large Bubble 78% 7% 77% 74%
8 North Carolina At-Large Bubble 74% 5% 73% 79%
8 Cincinnati At-Large Bubble 76% 5% 75% 74%
Seed Team Bid Type Opening Round At-Large Status Tournament Chances
Total Auto At-Large Bye
9 Wisconsin At-Large Bubble 65% 3% 64% 74%
9 LSU At-Large Bubble 70% 4% 69% 73%
9 Indiana At-Large Bubble 64% 5% 63% 71%
9 Baylor At-Large Bubble 68% 5% 66% 72%
10 Ohio St. At-Large Bubble 63% 4% 61% 68%
10 Providence At-Large Bubble 63% 8% 60% 69%
10 Villanova At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 9% 50% 69%
10 Iowa At-Large ✓ Bubble 63% 3% 62% 69%
10 Iowa St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 56% 6% 53% 67%
10 Xavier At-Large ✓ Bubble 61% 8% 57% 69%
11 Maryland At-Large ✓ Bubble 58% 4% 57% 67%
11 Creighton At-Large ✓ Bubble 61% 7% 58% 71%
11 West Virginia At-Large ✓ Bubble 56% 5% 54% 67%
11 Memphis At-Large ✓ Bubble 64% 20% 55% 76%
11 TCU At-Large ✓ Bubble 55% 4% 52% 65%
11 Notre Dame At-Large ✓ Bubble 60% 1% 59% 72%
11 Oklahoma St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 54% 4% 52% 63%
11 North Carolina St. At-Large ✓ Bubble 50% 4% 48% 59%
12 Saint Louis Auto Bubble 43% 22% 26% 71%
12 Grand Canyon Auto Likely Out 41% 27% 19% 79%
12 Saint Mary's Auto Bubble 53% 35% 27% 81%
12 Wichita St. Auto Likely Out 30% 20% 12% 78%
13 Murray St. Auto Likely Out 30% 25% 6% 89%
13 Miami (OH) Auto Likely Out 28% 23% 6% 89%
13 High Point Auto Likely Out 62% 60% 6% 97%
13 McNeese St. Auto Likely Out 51% 48% 5% 96%
14 UC San Diego Auto Likely Out 24% 23% 1% 96%
14 Western Kentucky Auto Likely Out 26% 25% 1% 94%
14 UNC Wilmington Auto Likely Out 28% 27% 1% 93%
14 Harvard Auto Negligible 25% 24% 0% 88%
15 Furman Auto Negligible 23% 23% 0% 80%
15 Wright St. Auto Negligible 27% 27% 0% 80%
15 St. Thomas Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 0% 80%
15 Queens Auto ✓ Negligible 30% 30% 0% 74%
15 Central Arkansas Auto ✓ Negligible 28% 28% 0% 72%
15 Montana St. Auto ✓ Negligible 25% 25% 0% 68%
16 James Madison Auto ✓ Negligible 14% 14% 37%
16 American Auto ✓ Negligible 26% 26% 0% 19%
16 Vermont Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 8%
16 Tennessee St. Auto ✓ Negligible 28% 28% 6%
16 Bethune-Cookman Auto ✓ Negligible 27% 27% 7%
16 Merrimack Auto ✓ Negligible 18% 18% 5%
16 Howard Auto ✓ Negligible 51% 51% 5%
16 LIU Brooklyn Auto ✓ Negligible 35% 35% 2%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Kentucky Bubble - In 78% 7% 79% 78%
Nebraska Bubble - In 77% 7% 79% 78%
Auburn Bubble - In 77% 5% 78% 77%
Missouri Bubble - In 74% 6% 76% 78%
Texas A&M Bubble - In 74% 6% 76% 76%
Miami (FL) Bubble - In 77% 7% 78% 74%
Cincinnati Bubble - In 75% 5% 76% 74%
North Carolina Bubble - In 73% 5% 74% 79%
Marquette Bubble - In 72% 10% 74% 76%
Arkansas Bubble - In 71% 6% 73% 75%
LSU Bubble - In 69% 4% 70% 73%
Baylor Bubble - In 66% 5% 68% 72%
Wisconsin Bubble - In 64% 3% 65% 74%
Indiana Bubble - In 63% 5% 64% 71%
Providence Bubble - In 60% 8% 63% 69%
Ohio St. Bubble - In 61% 4% 63% 68%
Iowa Bubble - In 62% 3% 63% 69%
Xavier Bubble - In 57% 8% 61% 69%
Creighton Bubble - In 58% 7% 61% 71%
Iowa St. Bubble - In 53% 6% 56% 67%
West Virginia Bubble - In 54% 5% 56% 67%
Maryland Bubble - In 57% 4% 58% 67%
Memphis Bubble - In 55% 20% 64% 76%
Notre Dame Bubble - In 59% 1% 60% 72%
TCU Bubble - In 52% 4% 55% 65%
Oklahoma St. Bubble - In 52% 4% 54% 63%
Villanova Bubble - Out 50% 9% 54% 69%
North Carolina St. Bubble - Out 48% 4% 50% 59%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team At-Large Status Tournament Chances
At-Large Auto Total Bye
Oregon Bubble - Out 49% 2% 50% 63%
Clemson Bubble - Out 46% 4% 48% 59%
Georgia Bubble - Out 43% 2% 45% 59%
Mississippi Bubble - Out 43% 2% 44% 59%
Virginia Tech Bubble - Out 41% 5% 45% 62%
Stanford Bubble - Out 39% 2% 40% 55%
Florida St. Bubble - Out 37% 3% 39% 53%
Utah St. Bubble - Out 35% 18% 47% 68%
Arizona St. Bubble - Out 35% 1% 35% 51%
Minnesota Bubble - Out 34% 2% 35% 53%
Mississippi St. Bubble - Out 33% 1% 34% 56%
Washington Bubble - Out 32% 1% 32% 56%
SMU Bubble - Out 31% 2% 33% 52%
Central Florida Bubble - Out 31% 1% 31% 54%
San Diego St. Bubble - Out 29% 13% 38% 63%
VCU Bubble - Out 29% 21% 44% 71%
Colorado Bubble - Out 27% 1% 28% 52%
Seton Hall Bubble - Out 27% 3% 29% 52%
DePaul Bubble - Out 23% 2% 25% 51%
Nevada Bubble - Out 23% 21% 39% 71%
Colorado St. Bubble - Out 22% 7% 28% 56%
Pittsburgh Bubble - Out 20% 2% 21% 47%
Georgetown Likely Out 18% 2% 20% 49%
New Mexico Likely Out 16% 23% 36% 77%
Santa Clara Likely Out 15% 31% 41% 83%
Butler Likely Out 15% 2% 17% 47%
Syracuse Likely Out 15% 2% 16% 47%
South Carolina Likely Out 14% 0% 15% 43%
Northwestern Likely Out 14% 0% 14% 45%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
California Likely Out 12% 1% 12% 40%
Rutgers Likely Out 12% 0% 12% 43%
Utah Likely Out 11% 0% 11% 41%
Oklahoma Likely Out 11% 2% 12% 53%
Boise St. Likely Out 10% 8% 17% 63%
Dayton Likely Out 10% 13% 22% 73%
Oregon St. Likely Out 8% 8% 15% 65%
Penn St. Likely Out 8% 0% 8% 39%
George Washington Likely Out 8% 12% 18% 73%
Wake Forest Likely Out 7% 1% 8% 42%
Davidson Likely Out 6% 5% 11% 62%
Georgia Tech Likely Out 6% 0% 6% 34%
Akron Likely Out 4% 22% 26% 91%
South Florida Likely Out 4% 15% 18% 84%
UNLV Likely Out 3% 13% 16% 85%
George Mason Likely Out 3% 7% 9% 79%
Boston College Likely Out 2% 0% 2% 34%
Texas St. Likely Out 2% 3% 5% 63%
Charlotte Likely Out 2% 6% 7% 80%
Florida Atlantic Likely Out 2% 7% 8% 86%
Tulsa Likely Out 2% 11% 12% 91%
Illinois-Chicago Likely Out 1% 18% 19% 95%
Richmond Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 83%
North Texas Likely Out 1% 7% 8% 90%
Saint Joseph's Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 79%
Hawaii Likely Out 1% 3% 4% 82%
Wyoming Likely Out 1% 7% 8% 89%
Fordham Likely Out 1% 3% 3% 80%
UC Santa Barbara Likely Out 1% 23% 23% 97%
Kansas St. Likely Out 1% 0% 1% 45%
Team At-Large Status At-Large Auto Total Bye
Rhode Island Likely Out 1% 4% 5% 89%
Temple Likely Out 1% 7% 7% 94%