Big 12
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Houston 99%   1   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +20.0 4 A- +9 23 A+ +11 3 +8 50 0 1
Kansas 99%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +19.5 6 A +10 8 A +9 6 +12 20 0 1
Arizona 91%   5   Likely In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +18.3 8 A- +9 22 A +9 7 +4 107 0 1
Texas Tech 89%   4   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +17.6 11 A +11 6 A- +7 25 +2 131 0 1
Iowa St. 56%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +16.1 21 A- +8 34 A +8 9 -6 309 0 1
BYU 98%   5   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +15.8 24 A +11 4 B +4 63 +26 6 0 1
Cincinnati 79%   8   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +14.0 32 B+ +7 46 A- +7 19 +7 58 0 1
Baylor 67%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +13.6 34 A- +8 28 B+ +5 48 +3 119 0 1
TCU 55%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.5 40 B+ +6 51 B+ +6 32 +1 149 0 1
West Virginia 59%   11   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.4 41 B +6 58 A- +7 27 0 251 0 1
Oklahoma St. 52%   11   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.2 51 B+ +7 39 B +4 65 +1 139 0 1
Arizona St. 40%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.8 65 B +5 64 B- +3 78 +9 45 0 1
Colorado 25%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 77 B +5 74 B- +3 86 +4 106 0 1
Central Florida 30%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +7.7 78 B +5 62 B- +2 100 +6 77 0 1
Utah 11%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.0 100 C+ +2 121 B- +3 85 +5 84 0 1
Kansas St. 0%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +4.1 108 C+ +2 109 C+ +2 114 -18 357 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 8 Arizona 75 18 UCLA 84   
Mon, Nov 2 21 Iowa St. 76 81 Memphis 80   
Mon, Nov 2 24 BYU 94 36 Ohio St. 83   
Mon, Nov 2 124 Fordham 65 6 Kansas 95   
Mon, Nov 2 4 Houston 94 177 La Salle 55   
Mon, Nov 2 227 Florida Gulf Coast 95 78 Central Florida 96   
Mon, Nov 2 199 American 53 32 Cincinnati 79   
Mon, Nov 2 301 Jackson St. 42 11 Texas Tech 76   
Mon, Nov 2 65 Arizona St. 75 163 East Tennessee St. 65   
Mon, Nov 2 240 Long Beach St. 63 100 Utah 66   
Mon, Nov 2 34 Baylor 87 290 Northwestern St. 65   
Mon, Nov 2 317 Lindenwood 59 40 TCU 98   
Mon, Nov 2 51 Oklahoma St. 91 310 Incarnate Word 60   
Mon, Nov 2 331 Niagara 46 41 West Virginia 91   
Mon, Nov 2 271 Abilene Christian 59 77 Colorado 94   
Tue, Nov 3 108 Kansas St. 66 197 South Dakota St. 68   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 8 Arizona 94 172 Cal Poly 71 97%   
Thu, Nov 5 212 Bethune-Cookman 61 11 Texas Tech 85 98%   
Thu, Nov 5 32 Cincinnati 77 201 Green Bay 58 96%   
Thu, Nov 5 185 Towson 60 100 Utah 70 83%   
Fri, Nov 6 6 Kansas 82 161 Middle Tennessee 58 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 21 Iowa St. 84 237 Southern Miss 60 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 51 Oklahoma St. 92 168 Queens 76 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 24 BYU 90 287 Nebraska Omaha 63 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 78 Central Florida 77 152 Yale 67 84%   
Fri, Nov 6 65 Arizona St. 83 190 Northern Colorado 69 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 278 Stetson 58 41 West Virginia 80 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 296 Southern 61 40 TCU 84 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 214 Cal St. Northridge 78 108 Kansas St. 89 84%   
Fri, Nov 6 362 Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 34 Baylor 91 99%   
Sat, Nov 7 77 Colorado 74 67 San Diego St. 75 54%   
Sun, Nov 8 90 California 63 4 Houston 76 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Houston 4 27% 16% 7% 4% 27 21 14 10 7 5 5 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0
Kansas 4 26% 15% 7% 4% 26 19 14 8 11 7 4 3 3 1 2 1 1 0 0
Texas Tech 5 22% 12% 8% 3% 22 13 12 12 10 6 4 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 1
Arizona 5 14% 6% 6% 3% 14 14 14 9 8 8 9 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0
BYU 6 11% 6% 4% 1% 11 9 10 7 9 10 10 9 6 7 4 4 3 1 1 0
Cincinnati 7 6% 2% 3% 1% 6 7 9 9 10 10 7 9 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 1
Iowa St. 7 6% 3% 1% 2% 6 7 10 6 9 9 9 9 8 8 5 6 5 1 2 1
Baylor 7 7% 4% 1% 2% 7 7 8 7 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 4 5 3 3 2
TCU 7 7% 3% 3% 1% 7 8 5 7 9 8 6 8 7 8 6 8 5 2 4 1
West Virginia 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 8 11 9 8 8 8 6 6 4 6 5 3 2
Oklahoma St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 2
Arizona St. 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 2 2 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 7
Central Florida 11 1% 1% 0% 1 2 1 2 2 3 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 10 12 7
Colorado 11 1% 0% 1% 1 2 1 1 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 12 12 10 10
Utah 12 0 1 1 2 3 3 5 4 8 8 9 8 17 15 16
Kansas St. 14 0% 0% 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 7 8 10 16 21 26

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 12 - 6 23 - 7 0 1 2 4 7 9 14 19 17 13 8 5 2 0
Kansas 12 - 6 22 - 8 0 1 2 3 7 10 16 17 16 13 9 3 2
Texas Tech 11 - 7 20 - 9 0 1 2 4 8 8 10 16 17 14 9 7 3 1
Arizona 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 1 3 5 7 13 13 14 18 13 9 2 1 0
BYU 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 1 4 8 9 16 16 14 12 11 4 3 1 0
Cincinnati 10 - 8 21 - 11 0 1 1 3 6 8 12 15 14 16 9 7 5 1 0
Iowa St. 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 7 10 13 16 16 14 9 8 3 1 0
Baylor 10 - 8 18 - 11 1 1 1 3 7 9 13 14 14 13 11 7 5 1
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 11 1 3 4 8 9 15 14 12 12 10 6 5 1 1
West Virginia 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 1 3 5 7 8 14 14 12 18 9 4 2 2 0
Oklahoma St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 2 4 6 10 10 14 15 12 9 10 4 1 1 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 19 - 14 0 0 2 6 7 12 12 15 16 13 8 4 2 1 1
Central Florida 7 - 11 17 - 15 1 3 4 10 10 17 16 17 10 6 4 2 0 1 0
Colorado 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 2 3 5 10 13 13 15 13 11 7 3 2 1 0
Utah 6 - 12 16 - 16 0 2 6 10 14 14 16 13 10 7 4 2 1 0
Kansas St. 5 - 13 12 - 18 1 5 8 14 19 16 16 10 6 3 2 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Houston 99% 18% 99% 1 Likely In 26 20 14 9 8 7 5 4 3 1 2 1
Kansas 99% 17% 98% 2 Likely In 21 19 17 13 7 8 4 3 2 2 2 1
Arizona 91% 10% 90% 5 Likely In 4 11 15 11 11 10 7 7 4 4 7 1 9
Texas Tech 89% 14% 87% 4 Likely In 7 13 11 12 10 9 7 6 3 4 6 1 11
Iowa St. 56% 6% 53% 10 Bubble - In 1 2 3 5 6 5 6 6 7 13 1 44
BYU 98% 7% 98% 5 Likely In 18 5 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 2 1 2
Cincinnati 79% 4% 78% 8 Bubble - In 4 2 6 7 8 7 8 8 6 7 14 2 21
Baylor 67% 5% 65% 9 Bubble - In 1 2 5 5 7 7 6 5 7 8 11 2 33
TCU 55% 6% 52% 11 Bubble - In 2 2 4 6 5 7 6 4 4 12 3 45
West Virginia 59% 4% 57% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 1 3 5 4 7 7 6 7 13 2 41
Oklahoma St. 52% 5% 49% 11 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 4 5 3 5 7 8 12 3 48
Arizona St. 40% 1% 39% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 3 3 5 8 11 7 60
Colorado 25% 1% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 7 3 75
Central Florida 30% 2% 29% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 11 3 70
Utah 11% 0% 11% Likely Out 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 89
Kansas St. 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.5 1 4 15 30 32 15 3 1
1st Round 100% 8.5 4 17 28 31 15 4 0
2nd Round 100% 5.7 1 3 15 21 32 20 6 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.1 1 10 22 33 21 11 2 0
Elite Eight 85% 1.5 15 37 31 14 2 0
Final Four 63% 0.8 37 46 14 3
Final Game 40% 0.4 60 36 4
Champion 21% 0.2 79 21

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 99% 3% 98% 81% 51% 28% 18% 10% 5%
Kansas 99% 3% 97% 80% 50% 27% 16% 8% 3%
Arizona 91% 11% 86% 65% 39% 20% 11% 7% 4%
Texas Tech 89% 9% 84% 64% 34% 19% 11% 6% 3%
Iowa St. 56% 19% 46% 27% 15% 7% 3% 2%
BYU 98% 2% 97% 65% 33% 15% 7% 4% 1%
Cincinnati 79% 20% 68% 42% 20% 9% 5% 2% 1%
Baylor 67% 17% 59% 37% 16% 7% 3% 1%
TCU 55% 18% 48% 30% 15% 6% 3% 1% 1%
West Virginia 59% 20% 50% 30% 12% 5% 3% 1%
Oklahoma St. 52% 19% 41% 25% 11% 5% 2% 1% 1%
Arizona St. 40% 20% 27% 11% 3% 2% 1%
Colorado 25% 12% 18% 7% 2% 1%
Central Florida 30% 16% 22% 9% 3% 1%
Utah 11% 7% 7% 2% 1%
Kansas St. 0%