Big East
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Connecticut 97%   2   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +20.0 5 A- +9 14 A+ +11 4 -2 297 0 1
St. John's 95%   3   Likely In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +16.8 16 A- +8 32 A +9 8 +8 48 0 1
Marquette 75%   7   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +14.1 30 B+ +7 43 A- +7 18 +2 116 0 1
Villanova 58%   10   Bubble - In 0 - 1 0 - 0 +13.1 36 A- +8 33 B+ +5 46 -5 312 0 1
Providence 65%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.7 37 B+ +7 46 B+ +6 34 0 263 0 1
Creighton 63%   9   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.1 44 B+ +7 36 B +5 58 +3 94 0 1
Xavier 63%   10   Bubble - In 1 - 0 0 - 0 +11.8 47 B+ +7 41 B +5 54 +1 127 0 1
Georgetown 21%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 67 B- +4 82 B +5 57 -1 275 0 1
DePaul 27%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.5 68 C+ +2 109 B+ +6 32 +1 119 0 1
Seton Hall 30%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 71 C+ +2 113 B+ +6 33 +2 109 0 1
Butler 12%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +6.6 91 B- +4 84 B- +3 92 -1 279 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 1 74 Notre Dame 74 36 Villanova 72   
Mon, Nov 2 178 Monmouth 63 16 St. John's 78   
Mon, Nov 2 44 Creighton 76 281 UMKC 61   
Mon, Nov 2 354 Gardner-Webb 46 5 Connecticut 86   
Mon, Nov 2 30 Marquette 78 308 Mercyhurst 43   
Mon, Nov 2 316 Mount St. Mary's 52 47 Xavier 97   
Mon, Nov 2 328 Maine 56 37 Providence 83   
Mon, Nov 2 300 St. Peter's 42 71 Seton Hall 66   
Mon, Nov 2 68 DePaul 75 312 West Georgia 58   
Mon, Nov 2 67 Georgetown 80 342 Loyola Maryland 58   
Mon, Nov 2 91 Butler 96 344 Lafayette 60   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 91 Butler 82 341 Fairleigh Dickinson 61 96%   
Thu, Nov 5 68 DePaul 76 95 South Florida 71 69%   
Thu, Nov 5 254 LIU Brooklyn 58 71 Seton Hall 74 93%   
Thu, Nov 5 44 Creighton 87 324 Le Moyne 63 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 15 Michigan 70 5 Connecticut 73 62%   
Fri, Nov 6 182 Eastern Michigan 66 47 Xavier 83 93%   
Fri, Nov 6 274 Detroit Mercy 63 30 Marquette 87 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 347 Holy Cross 55 36 Villanova 82 99%   
Sat, Nov 7 23 Nebraska 77 37 Providence 74 62%   
Sat, Nov 7 67 Georgetown 69 38 Maryland 70 54%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2 48% 35% 10% 2% 48 21 12 8 5 3 2 1 1 0 0
St. John's 3 27% 18% 7% 2% 27 22 15 11 8 6 4 3 2 1 0
Marquette 5 11% 6% 4% 1% 11 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 5 3 2
Villanova 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 6 4 2
Providence 5 8% 5% 3% 1% 8 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 3
Xavier 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 3
Creighton 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 11 12 12 12 10 10 7 6 3
Seton Hall 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 9 11 13 14 14 13
DePaul 8 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 9 11 13 14 15 14
Georgetown 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 6 8 10 11 13 14 15 14
Butler 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 4 5 7 9 12 15 19 24

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 14 - 6 23 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 16 14 9 6 2 0
St. John's 13 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 8 5 2 1 0
Marquette 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 13 13 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0
Villanova 11 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 12 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Providence 11 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Xavier 10 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Creighton 10 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 13 14 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
DePaul 8 - 12 17 - 15 0 0 2 4 6 9 12 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Butler 7 - 13 15 - 17 0 1 3 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Connecticut 97% 30% 95% 2 Likely In 13 25 15 11 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 3
St. John's 95% 19% 93% 3 Likely In 12 15 14 12 10 8 7 5 4 3 4 1 5
Marquette 75% 10% 72% 7 Bubble - In 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 7 11 2 25
Villanova 58% 9% 53% 10 Bubble - In 3 3 4 6 6 6 6 5 7 11 1 42
Providence 65% 8% 61% 9 Bubble - In 1 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 5 6 13 3 35
Creighton 63% 7% 60% 9 Bubble - In 1 2 3 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 12 2 37
Xavier 63% 8% 60% 10 Bubble - In 1 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 7 13 3 37
Georgetown 21% 2% 20% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 8 2 79
DePaul 27% 2% 25% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 9 2 73
Seton Hall 30% 3% 29% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 10 3 70
Butler 12% 1% 11% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 2 5 1 88

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 6.1 0 0 6 23 37 25 7 1 0
1st Round 100% 5.3 0 3 18 35 30 11 2 0 0
2nd Round 100% 3.6 0 3 14 31 33 16 4 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 93% 1.9 7 29 37 21 5 1 0 0
Elite Eight 70% 1.0 30 45 20 4 0 0 0
Final Four 44% 0.5 56 37 7 0 0
Final Game 25% 0.3 75 24 1
Champion 14% 0.1 86 14

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 97% 4% 95% 81% 53% 32% 19% 11% 6%
St. John's 95% 7% 91% 71% 42% 22% 12% 6% 3%
Marquette 75% 17% 67% 43% 21% 10% 5% 2% 1%
Villanova 58% 17% 50% 31% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Providence 65% 19% 55% 34% 16% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Creighton 63% 17% 55% 32% 14% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Xavier 63% 19% 54% 32% 15% 7% 3% 1% 1%
Georgetown 21% 11% 16% 8% 3% 1%
DePaul 27% 13% 20% 10% 4% 1% 1%
Seton Hall 30% 14% 23% 11% 4% 2% 1%
Butler 12% 7% 8% 4% 1% 1%