Big Sky
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Montana St. 26%   15   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +1.4 133 C +1 140 C +1 139 -3 291 0 1
Eastern Washington 16%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.5 160 C+ +1 131 C- -2 224 -2 278 0 1
Northern Colorado 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.3 190 C- -1 183 C- -1 210 0 159 0 1
Portland St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.5 196 C- -2 234 C +0 166 0 159 0 1
Montana 9%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.3 208 C- -1 190 C- -2 242 0 155 0 1
Idaho 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 238 D+ -3 252 C- -2 215 0 159 0 1
Southern Utah 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.9 246 C- -2 229 D+ -3 266 0 159 0 1
Utah Tech 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.1 284 D -5 295 D+ -2 255 0 157 0 1
Northern Arizona 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.9 303 C- -3 246 D- -5 344 -4 304 0 1
Weber St. 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -8.8 315 D -5 322 D+ -3 288 -3 290 0 1
Idaho St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.1 326 D -5 321 D -5 328 +1 145 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 85 Colorado St. 84 133 Montana St. 74   
Mon, Nov 2 160 Eastern Washington 65 74 Stanford 74   
Mon, Nov 2 208 Montana 69 58 Oregon 87   
Mon, Nov 2 60 New Mexico 100 284 Utah Tech 60   
Mon, Nov 2 326 Idaho St. 58 53 Utah St. 94   
Mon, Nov 2 84 Oregon St. 102 315 Weber St. 61   
Tue, Nov 3 303 Northern Arizona 77 98 UNLV 89   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 160 Eastern Washington 66 58 Oregon 79 89%   
Fri, Nov 6 65 Arizona St. 83 190 Northern Colorado 69 90%   
Fri, Nov 6 85 Colorado St. 77 238 Idaho 62 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 326 Idaho St. 61 118 Wyoming 76 92%   
Sat, Nov 7 60 New Mexico 82 303 Northern Arizona 61 96%   
Sat, Nov 7 196 Portland St. 65 121 Seattle 73 77%   
Sat, Nov 7 240 Long Beach St. 67 133 Montana St. 76 80%   
Sat, Nov 7 122 Utah Valley 76 315 Weber St. 68 78%   
Sun, Nov 8 313 Air Force 71 326 Idaho St. 66 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Montana St. 3 40% 29% 9% 2% 40 21 13 9 7 4 3 2 1 1 0
Eastern Washington 4 23% 15% 6% 2% 23 19 16 12 9 7 5 4 3 2 1
Northern Colorado 4 16% 10% 5% 2% 16 15 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 2
Portland St. 5 14% 9% 4% 1% 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 2
Montana 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 6 5 3
Southern Utah 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 11 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 4
Idaho 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 4
Utah Tech 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 5 6 9 9 11 12 12 12 12 9
Northern Arizona 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 7 9 11 12 13 13 13 10
Weber St. 8 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 3 4 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 14
Idaho St. 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 11 15 20 30

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Montana St. 14 - 6 17 - 12 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 14 12 8 4 1 0
Eastern Washington 12 - 8 15 - 14 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 7 9 12 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 0 0
Northern Colorado 11 - 9 13 - 14 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 13 12 10 7 5 2 1 0 0
Portland St. 11 - 9 14 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 0 0
Montana 11 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 9 12 12 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Southern Utah 10 - 10 12 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 12 13 12 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Idaho 10 - 10 12 - 16 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 11 13 13 12 10 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Utah Tech 9 - 11 10 - 19 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 11 9 7 4 3 2 1 0 0
Northern Arizona 8 - 12 9 - 19 0 0 1 3 5 7 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Weber St. 8 - 12 10 - 20 0 0 2 3 6 9 13 14 15 12 10 7 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Idaho St. 6 - 14 8 - 21 0 1 4 8 11 14 15 14 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Montana St. 26% 26% 0% 15 Negligible 3 8 11 2 74
Eastern Washington 16% 16% 0% Negligible 1 4 8 2 84
Northern Colorado 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 2 87
Portland St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 3 6 2 88
Montana 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 5 2 91
Idaho 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 93
Southern Utah 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 93
Utah Tech 4% 4% 0% Negligible 2 2 96
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
Weber St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 2 98
Idaho St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 74% 0.7 26 74
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Montana St. 26% 8% 22% 3% 1%
Eastern Washington 16% 7% 12% 1%
Northern Colorado 13% 7% 10% 1%
Portland St. 12% 6% 9% 1%
Montana 9% 6% 6% 1%
Idaho 7% 5% 5%
Southern Utah 7% 5% 5%
Utah Tech 4% 3% 2%
Northern Arizona 3% 3% 2%
Weber St. 2% 2% 1%
Idaho St. 1% 1% 1%