Big West
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UC Santa Barbara 22%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.3 106 B- +3 96 C+ +1 122 0 159 0 1
UC San Diego 25%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +4.2 107 C+ +2 120 B- +2 97 0 159 0 1
UC Irvine 20%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.2 115 C- -2 208 B +5 56 0 159 0 1
Utah Valley 18%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.3 122 C +0 156 B- +2 104 0 159 0 1
Cal Poly 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.4 172 C +1 144 C- -2 237 0 159 0 1
Sacramento St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.8 180 C +0 164 C- -2 218 0 159 0 1
Cal St. Northridge 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.4 214 C- -2 236 C- -1 203 0 159 0 1
Cal St. Fullerton 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.2 233 C- -2 239 C- -2 230 -1 265 0 1
UC Riverside 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.3 235 C- -2 238 C- -2 234 0 159 0 1
Long Beach St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.7 240 C- -2 243 D+ -2 244 -5 306 0 1
California Baptist 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.3 255 D -5 316 C +0 160 -23 363 0 1
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.6 295 D+ -4 278 D -4 303 0 159 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 240 Long Beach St. 63 100 Utah 66   
Tue, Nov 3 67 San Diego St. 102 233 Cal St. Fullerton 78   
Tue, Nov 3 255 California Baptist 63 293 North Florida 71   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 4 214 Cal St. Northridge 69 83 Wichita St. 83 89%   
Thu, Nov 5 8 Arizona 94 172 Cal Poly 71 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 255 California Baptist 63 84 Oregon St. 78 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 214 Cal St. Northridge 78 108 Kansas St. 89 84%   
Sat, Nov 7 180 Sacramento St. 74 82 Santa Clara 86 87%   
Sat, Nov 7 167 Fresno St. 66 107 UC San Diego 75 79%   
Sat, Nov 7 158 San Jose St. 65 115 UC Irvine 71 73%   
Sat, Nov 7 203 Oakland 67 106 UC Santa Barbara 77 83%   
Sat, Nov 7 240 Long Beach St. 67 133 Montana St. 76 80%   
Sat, Nov 7 122 Utah Valley 76 315 Weber St. 68 78%   
Sat, Nov 7 219 Denver 73 235 UC Riverside 75 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 233 Cal St. Fullerton 79 274 South Dakota 80 53%   
Sun, Nov 8 295 Cal St. Bakersfield 71 159 North Dakota St. 75 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UC San Diego 3 33% 24% 7% 2% 33 24 14 13 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
UC Santa Barbara 3 26% 19% 6% 1% 26 23 16 12 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 0
UC Irvine 3 23% 17% 5% 1% 23 21 18 13 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 0
Utah Valley 4 20% 13% 5% 2% 20 18 19 14 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 0
Cal Poly 6 6% 4% 1% 1% 6 6 10 11 15 14 11 9 8 3 4 3
Sacramento St. 6 5% 3% 2% 0% 5 8 7 12 12 11 12 9 10 7 4 4
Cal St. Northridge 7 1% 0% 1% 1 4 4 9 9 10 10 15 11 9 9 9
UC Riverside 8 1% 1% 1 2 4 6 9 11 11 13 14 11 10 7
Cal St. Fullerton 8 2% 1% 0% 1% 2 3 4 5 7 11 12 12 14 10 10 10
Long Beach St. 8 1% 1% 0% 1 1 4 5 10 9 11 11 15 11 14 9
California Baptist 8 1% 0% 0% 1 1 2 6 9 9 10 14 11 12 15 11
Cal St. Bakersfield 10 0% 0% 0 1 0 2 3 5 7 8 12 14 20 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
UC San Diego 15 - 7 20 - 9 0 1 1 1 4 4 8 7 12 13 14 12 11 6 3 2 0
UC Santa Barbara 15 - 7 20 - 10 0 1 1 3 3 6 7 10 12 13 14 12 7 7 3 1 0
UC Irvine 14 - 8 19 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 2 4 8 6 10 12 15 13 8 7 5 2 1 0
Utah Valley 14 - 8 17 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 5 3 8 9 12 13 12 12 10 7 2 1 1
Cal Poly 11 - 11 14 - 16 0 1 2 1 2 5 7 10 11 14 14 10 7 7 4 2 2 1 0
Sacramento St. 11 - 11 14 - 15 0 1 2 4 8 10 10 12 10 11 9 9 5 5 2 2 0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 13 13 - 17 1 1 4 4 8 9 11 15 10 12 7 7 4 4 2 1
UC Riverside 9 - 13 12 - 18 0 0 2 3 5 7 11 14 12 13 11 9 7 3 1 1 0 0 0
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 13 12 - 18 1 2 4 5 7 10 14 13 11 12 8 4 3 2 2 1 1
Long Beach St. 9 - 13 11 - 21 1 1 4 6 12 11 13 14 10 10 9 4 3 2 0 0 0
California Baptist 8 - 14 12 - 20 0 1 2 4 8 9 12 12 14 11 11 8 3 2 1 1 0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 15 9 - 21 0 2 4 7 8 14 13 16 11 9 5 5 3 2 1 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UC Santa Barbara 22% 22% 1% Likely Out 1 4 11 5 1 78
UC San Diego 25% 23% 2% 14 Likely Out 1 5 10 6 1 75
UC Irvine 20% 20% 0% Negligible 1 3 10 4 1 80
Utah Valley 18% 17% 0% Negligible 1 2 8 6 1 82
Cal Poly 5% 5% 0% Negligible 2 1 1 95
Sacramento St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 0 95
Cal St. Northridge 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 97
Cal St. Fullerton 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
UC Riverside 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 99
Long Beach St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 99
California Baptist 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 0 99
Cal St. Bakersfield 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 98 2
1st Round 96% 1.0 4 95 2
2nd Round 18% 0.2 82 18
Sweet Sixteen 5% 0.0 95 5
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Santa Barbara 22% 1% 22% 4% 1%
UC San Diego 25% 1% 24% 6% 2%
UC Irvine 20% 20% 3%
Utah Valley 18% 17% 3% 1%
Cal Poly 5% 4%
Sacramento St. 5% 1% 4% 1%
Cal St. Northridge 3% 1% 2%
Cal St. Fullerton 2% 2%
UC Riverside 1% 1%
Long Beach St. 1% 1%
California Baptist 1% 1% 1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0%