Conference USA
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Western Kentucky 26%   14   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +3.4 111 C+ +2 126 C+ +2 112 -1 254 0 1
Liberty 14%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 +1.0 139 C +1 139 C +0 149 -3 294 0 1
New Mexico St. 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 146 C +0 169 C+ +1 129 0 159 0 1
Kennesaw St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.2 155 C -1 175 C+ +1 133 0 159 0 1
Middle Tennessee St. 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.6 161 C -1 176 C +0 155 0 159 0 1
Florida International 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -1.3 170 C -1 181 C +0 175 0 159 0 1
Sam Houston St. 8%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.6 176 C- -1 184 C -1 181 +7 67 0 1
Jacksonville St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.9 202 C- -2 213 C- -1 197 0 159 0 1
Missouri St. 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.7 242 D+ -3 269 C- -1 208 0 159 0 1
Delaware 2%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -5.5 259 C- -2 222 D+ -3 289 0 159 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 62 High Point 72 139 Liberty 57   
Mon, Nov 2 334 Morehead St. 58 111 Western Kentucky 83   
Tue, Nov 3 16 Alabama 96 176 Sam Houston St. 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 202 Jacksonville St. 67 270 South Alabama 66 51%   
Fri, Nov 6 6 Kansas 82 161 Middle Tennessee 58 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 259 Delaware 59 54 Wisconsin 79 96%   
Fri, Nov 6 187 Austin Peay 74 155 Kennesaw St. 79 70%   
Fri, Nov 6 170 Florida International 82 361 West Florida 66 92%   
Sat, Nov 7 9 Gonzaga 83 146 New Mexico St. 63 96%   
Sun, Nov 8 220 Tennessee Tech 73 111 Western Kentucky 77 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Western Kentucky 3 37% 27% 8% 2% 37 20 13 10 6 6 4 2 1 1
Liberty 4 17% 11% 4% 2% 17 17 16 13 11 10 6 5 3 3
New Mexico St. 4 20% 13% 5% 2% 20 16 12 9 10 11 8 6 5 4
Kennesaw St. 4 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 21 13 14 11 10 6 6 5 3
Middle Tennessee St. 5 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 11 13 13 12 10 10 7 8 5
Sam Houston St. 5 9% 6% 2% 1% 9 10 12 9 12 12 13 11 7 5
Florida International 6 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 10 11 8 12 10 14 11 9 6
Jacksonville St. 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 8 9 12 13 11 9 12 11
Missouri St. 7 2% 1% 0% 1% 2 3 6 8 9 7 14 12 19 19
Delaware 7 2% 1% 1% 2 4 4 5 8 11 11 14 20 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Western Kentucky 12 - 6 18 - 11 0 1 1 1 3 7 7 10 14 15 15 8 9 5 3 0
Liberty 10 - 8 16 - 13 0 1 1 2 4 6 12 11 16 16 13 7 5 5 1 0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 14 - 14 0 1 2 3 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 10 8 4 1 1
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 15 - 12 1 2 4 5 6 10 14 14 16 9 9 5 3 1 1
Middle Tennessee St. 9 - 9 13 - 14 0 1 1 2 6 6 12 11 16 13 12 8 7 3 2 1
Sam Houston St. 9 - 9 12 - 17 0 1 1 4 4 9 14 15 11 14 11 6 5 4 1 0 0
Florida International 9 - 9 14 - 15 1 0 2 4 7 9 15 13 13 11 11 7 4 2 1 1
Jacksonville St. 8 - 10 14 - 16 1 3 7 9 10 13 14 14 10 8 4 3 1 2 0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 10 - 17 0 2 4 6 8 11 17 13 12 10 8 5 3 1 0 0
Delaware 7 - 11 11 - 18 0 1 4 7 11 12 13 15 11 11 5 4 3 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Western Kentucky 26% 25% 1% 14 Likely Out 3 10 9 3 74
Liberty 14% 14% 0% Negligible 3 6 5 86
New Mexico St. 13% 13% 0% Negligible 2 3 4 3 1 87
Kennesaw St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 4 4 3 0 88
Middle Tennessee St. 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 1 91
Florida International 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 1 92
Sam Houston St. 8% 8% 0% Negligible 0 2 3 2 0 92
Jacksonville St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 2 2 1 95
Missouri St. 3% 3% 0% Negligible 2 1 97
Delaware 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 1 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 91% 0.9 9 90 0
2nd Round 12% 0.1 88 12
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Western Kentucky 26% 2% 25% 6% 1%
Liberty 14% 3% 12% 1%
New Mexico St. 13% 2% 12% 1%
Kennesaw St. 12% 2% 11%
Middle Tennessee St. 9% 3% 8% 1%
Florida International 8% 2% 7% 1%
Sam Houston St. 8% 1% 7% 1% 1%
Jacksonville St. 5% 2% 5%
Missouri St. 3% 2% 2%
Delaware 2% 1% 1%