Mountain West
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Grand Canyon 42%   12   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +12.2 44 B +6 54 B+ +6 31 0 253 0 1
New Mexico 36%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +10.1 60 B +5 63 B +5 55 +3 115 0 1
Nevada 40%   Bubble - Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +9.2 64 B- +4 87 B+ +5 44 +7 63 0 1
UNLV 15%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 98 B- +3 93 B- +3 96 +2 134 0 1
Wyoming 8%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +2.9 118 C+ +2 112 C +1 136 0 159 0 1
Hawaii 5%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +1.3 135 C +0 159 C+ +1 123 +12 18 0 1
San Jose St. 3%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -0.3 158 C+ +2 124 C- -2 232 +4 103 0 1
UTEP 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -2.5 195 C- -2 210 C- -1 184 -15 348 0 1
UC Davis 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.4 213 C- -3 248 C- -1 182 -23 361 0 1
Air Force 0%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -8.6 313 D -5 301 D -4 306 -8 323 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 64 Nevada 86 205 Robert Morris 49   
Mon, Nov 2 135 Hawaii 74 121 Seattle 73   
Mon, Nov 2 60 New Mexico 100 284 Utah Tech 60   
Mon, Nov 2 44 Grand Canyon 103 333 Texas Southern 79   
Mon, Nov 2 194 Northern Kentucky 84 195 UTEP 76   
Mon, Nov 2 158 San Jose St. 95 268 Texas San Antonio 74   
Mon, Nov 2 280 North Alabama 79 213 UC Davis 75   
Mon, Nov 2 313 Air Force 71 132 Wright St. 102   
Tue, Nov 3 303 Northern Arizona 77 98 UNLV 89   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 326 Idaho St. 61 118 Wyoming 76 92%   
Sat, Nov 7 212 Bethune-Cookman 66 44 Grand Canyon 84 95%   
Sat, Nov 7 200 Samford 70 98 UNLV 81 86%   
Sat, Nov 7 158 San Jose St. 65 115 UC Irvine 71 73%   
Sat, Nov 7 60 New Mexico 82 303 Northern Arizona 61 96%   
Sun, Nov 8 64 Nevada 67 88 St. Mary's 65 59%   
Sun, Nov 8 135 Hawaii 73 218 Texas Arlington 65 78%   
Sun, Nov 8 310 Incarnate Word 62 195 UTEP 71 80%   
Sun, Nov 8 313 Air Force 71 326 Idaho St. 66 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Grand Canyon 2 43% 30% 10% 3% 43 25 15 9 4 2 1 0 0 0
New Mexico 3 32% 21% 9% 2% 32 24 19 12 7 4 1 1 0 0
Nevada 3 28% 17% 8% 2% 28 25 19 14 8 4 2 1 0 0
UNLV 4 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 16 19 19 14 10 6 3 1 0
Wyoming 5 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 9 13 16 18 16 11 7 4 1
Hawaii 6 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 8 12 16 19 16 12 8 2
San Jose St. 6 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 3 6 9 13 18 19 16 11 5
UTEP 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 3 5 9 14 18 21 19 8
UC Davis 8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 4 7 12 17 22 24 12
Air Force 9 0 0 0 1 3 6 12 24 54

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grand Canyon 13 - 5 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 10 14 18 18 15 9 4 1
New Mexico 13 - 5 22 - 9 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 9 12 16 17 15 11 7 2 0
Nevada 12 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 14 16 17 14 10 5 2 0
UNLV 11 - 7 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 8 4 2 1 0
Wyoming 9 - 9 17 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 3 2 1 0
Hawaii 8 - 10 15 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 14 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
San Jose St. 7 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
UTEP 6 - 12 11 - 16 0 1 3 7 11 14 16 15 13 8 6 3 1 1 0 0 0
UC Davis 6 - 12 12 - 18 0 2 5 9 14 16 16 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Air Force 3 - 15 8 - 23 4 13 19 20 17 12 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Grand Canyon 42% 28% 19% 12 Likely Out 1 1 2 2 4 6 6 16 2 58
New Mexico 36% 23% 17% Likely Out 1 1 2 4 5 4 15 2 64
Nevada 40% 22% 23% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 4 6 5 17 2 60
UNLV 15% 12% 3% Likely Out 1 1 1 8 3 85
Wyoming 8% 7% 1% Likely Out 0 3 3 1 92
Hawaii 5% 4% 1% Likely Out 0 2 2 0 95
San Jose St. 3% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 0 97
UTEP 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
UC Davis 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 99
Air Force 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.5 56 39 5 0
1st Round 100% 1.3 0 68 30 2 0
2nd Round 42% 0.5 58 37 5 0
Sweet Sixteen 15% 0.2 85 14 1
Elite Eight 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Final Four 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Game 1% 0.0 99 1
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 42% 9% 38% 15% 5% 2% 1%
New Mexico 36% 9% 32% 12% 4% 1%
Nevada 40% 11% 34% 12% 4% 1%
UNLV 15% 2% 14% 4% 1%
Wyoming 8% 1% 7% 2% 1%
Hawaii 5% 1% 4% 1%
San Jose St. 3% 2%
UTEP 1% 1%
UC Davis 1% 1% 1%
Air Force 0%