Southern
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Furman 24%   15   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +1.2 136 C+ +2 128 C +0 164 +10 39 0 1
East Tennessee St. 17%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.8 163 C +0 149 C- -1 200 -1 263 0 1
Western Carolina 20%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.9 164 C +0 147 C- -1 207 +2 133 0 1
Samford 9%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.8 200 C +0 155 D+ -3 271 0 159 0 1
Tennessee Tech 9%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.7 220 C +0 157 D -4 302 -2 272 0 1
Mercer 6%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.2 232 C- -2 241 C- -2 227 0 159 0 1
Wofford 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.7 260 C- -2 235 D+ -4 292 +7 60 0 1
Chattanooga 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.7 262 C- -2 219 D -4 301 +7 59 0 1
UNC Greensboro 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.9 279 D+ -3 263 D -4 300 0 159 0 1
VMI 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.2 330 D+ -4 290 D- -6 350 0 159 0 1
The Citadel 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.9 339 D -5 315 D- -6 346 -9 325 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 262 Chattanooga 70 13 Louisville 84   
Mon, Nov 2 46 North Carolina 80 164 Western Carolina 72   
Mon, Nov 2 65 Arizona St. 75 163 East Tennessee St. 65   
Mon, Nov 2 71 Mississippi St. 106 220 Tennessee Tech 88   
Mon, Nov 2 212 Bethune-Cookman 70 136 Furman 79   
Mon, Nov 2 138 Loyola Chicago 77 339 The Citadel 52   
Tue, Nov 3 14 Tennessee 90 260 Wofford 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 232 Mercer 64 48 Virginia Tech 83 95%   
Thu, Nov 5 262 Chattanooga 66 93 Penn St. 81 91%   
Thu, Nov 5 63 SMU 85 330 VMI 62 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 163 East Tennessee St. 67 50 North Carolina St. 82 91%   
Fri, Nov 6 46 North Carolina 84 260 Wofford 63 96%   
Fri, Nov 6 183 Elon 77 279 UNC Greensboro 69 77%   
Sat, Nov 7 200 Samford 70 98 UNLV 81 86%   
Sat, Nov 7 136 Furman 66 142 Northern Iowa 63 63%   
Sat, Nov 7 109 Davidson 74 232 Mercer 63 85%   
Sat, Nov 7 297 UNC Asheville 74 164 Western Carolina 77 65%   
Sat, Nov 7 268 Texas San Antonio 77 330 VMI 70 76%   
Sun, Nov 8 220 Tennessee Tech 73 111 Western Kentucky 77 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Furman 3 32% 23% 7% 2% 32 23 13 11 7 4 5 2 2 1
Western Carolina 3 25% 19% 4% 2% 25 19 15 11 11 6 5 3 3 2
East Tennessee St. 4 22% 15% 5% 2% 22 20 17 12 8 7 5 3 3 2 1
Samford 5 10% 7% 3% 1% 10 12 15 10 13 9 10 10 5 3 3
Tennessee Tech 5 9% 6% 1% 2% 9 8 14 12 14 10 9 9 7 6 2
Mercer 5 11% 7% 3% 1% 11 8 10 12 13 12 10 8 7 5 3
Wofford 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 8 10 11 8 11 12 11 10 7 7
UNC Greensboro 7 4% 1% 2% 0% 4 4 8 7 9 12 11 13 12 11 8
Chattanooga 7 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 4 6 7 10 13 12 13 12 10 9
VMI 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 3 7 8 8 12 14 20 22
The Citadel 9 0% 0% 0 2 2 4 3 5 9 11 16 22 25

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Furman 13 - 7 19 - 10 0 0 1 4 5 5 11 13 14 13 14 9 5 4 1
Western Carolina 13 - 7 15 - 12 1 3 4 5 10 11 14 13 13 10 7 6 2 0 0
East Tennessee St. 12 - 8 18 - 13 0 0 0 2 3 5 7 8 10 14 14 13 8 7 6 2 0
Samford 11 - 9 14 - 14 0 1 3 4 6 10 9 15 11 15 9 7 6 3 1 1
Tennessee Tech 10 - 10 13 - 16 0 1 3 5 5 11 10 15 13 13 8 7 4 2 1 0
Mercer 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 2 2 7 7 9 11 17 11 12 8 5 5 4 1 0 0
Wofford 9 - 11 13 - 16 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 13 12 11 10 11 8 4 3 1 0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 11 11 - 18 1 2 5 6 10 11 12 13 14 9 6 7 3 1 1 0
Chattanooga 9 - 11 13 - 16 1 1 2 3 7 9 12 11 15 15 8 7 4 3 1 1 0
VMI 7 - 13 10 - 18 2 2 6 9 14 16 11 13 8 8 5 4 1 1 1
The Citadel 7 - 13 9 - 20 2 2 7 14 15 13 14 10 9 5 4 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Furman 24% 24% 0% 15 Negligible 5 9 8 1 76
East Tennessee St. 17% 17% 0% Negligible 1 5 8 3 83
Western Carolina 20% 20% 0% Negligible 1 6 12 1 80
Samford 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 2 5 2 91
Tennessee Tech 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 4 4 91
Mercer 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 4 2 94
Wofford 4% 4% 0% Negligible 2 1 96
Chattanooga 5% 5% 0% Negligible 2 3 95
UNC Greensboro 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
VMI 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
The Citadel 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 75% 0.7 25 75
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 24% 6% 21% 2%
East Tennessee St. 17% 9% 14% 1%
Western Carolina 20% 8% 17% 2% 1%
Samford 9% 5% 6%
Tennessee Tech 9% 7% 6% 1%
Mercer 6% 5% 4%
Wofford 4% 3% 3%
Chattanooga 5% 4% 3%
UNC Greensboro 3% 3% 2%
VMI 1% 1%
The Citadel 2% 2%