Southern
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
Switch to Preseason Page


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Furman 23%   15   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +1.2 135 C+ +1 129 C +0 163 +10 39 0 1
East Tennessee St. 15%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.8 163 C +0 148 C- -1 199 -1 259 0 1
Western Carolina 18%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -0.9 164 C +0 147 C- -1 204 +2 136 0 1
Samford 11%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -2.8 200 C +0 156 D+ -3 269 0 164 0 1
Tennessee Tech 9%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.7 221 C +0 158 D -4 303 -2 268 0 1
Mercer 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.2 232 C- -2 241 C- -2 225 0 164 0 1
Wofford 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.7 260 C- -2 236 D+ -3 292 +7 58 0 1
Chattanooga 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.7 262 C- -2 220 D -4 302 +7 57 0 1
UNC Greensboro 4%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.9 278 D+ -3 263 D -4 300 0 164 0 1
VMI 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -10.2 330 D+ -4 290 D- -6 350 0 164 0 1
The Citadel 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.9 339 D -5 315 D- -6 346 -9 324 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 262 Chattanooga 70 13 Louisville 84   
46 North Carolina 80 164 Western Carolina 72   
66 Arizona St. 75 163 East Tennessee St. 65   
72 Mississippi St. 106 221 Tennessee Tech 88   
212 Bethune-Cookman 70 135 Furman 79   
137 Loyola Chicago 77 339 The Citadel 52   
Tue, Nov 3 14 Tennessee 90 260 Wofford 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 232 Mercer 64 48 Virginia Tech 83 95%   
262 Chattanooga 66 93 Penn St. 81 91%   
62 SMU 85 330 VMI 62 97%   
Fri, Nov 6 163 East Tennessee St. 67 50 North Carolina St. 82 91%   
46 North Carolina 84 260 Wofford 63 96%   
183 Elon 77 278 UNC Greensboro 69 77%   
Sat, Nov 7 200 Samford 70 98 UNLV 81 86%   
135 Furman 66 141 Northern Iowa 63 63%   
109 Davidson 74 232 Mercer 63 85%   
297 UNC Asheville 73 164 Western Carolina 77 65%   
268 Texas San Antonio 77 330 VMI 70 76%   
Sun, Nov 8 221 Tennessee Tech 73 112 Western Kentucky 78 65%   
Mon, Nov 9 102 Illinois-Chicago 78 278 UNC Greensboro 64 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Furman 3 36% 25% 8% 2% 36 21 14 10 7 5 3 2 1 1 0
Western Carolina 4 24% 16% 6% 2% 24 19 15 12 9 7 5 4 2 1 1
East Tennessee St. 4 21% 13% 5% 2% 21 18 15 12 10 8 6 5 3 2 1
Samford 5 13% 8% 4% 1% 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 5 4 2
Tennessee Tech 5 10% 6% 3% 1% 10 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 6 5 3
Mercer 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 3
Wofford 6 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 9 10 11 11 11 12 10 8 6
Chattanooga 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 8
UNC Greensboro 7 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 5 7 8 10 11 12 13 12 11 8
VMI 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 4 5 7 9 12 16 20 23
The Citadel 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 3 5 6 9 12 16 21 25

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Furman 13 - 7 20 - 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 4 7 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 1 0
Western Carolina 12 - 8 14 - 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0
East Tennessee St. 12 - 8 18 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 12 13 14 11 9 6 4 2 0 0
Samford 11 - 9 14 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 8 11 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Tennessee Tech 11 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Mercer 10 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Wofford 9 - 11 12 - 17 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 10 12 13 12 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Chattanooga 9 - 11 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 12 13 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
UNC Greensboro 9 - 11 11 - 18 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
VMI 7 - 13 9 - 19 0 1 3 6 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
The Citadel 7 - 13 9 - 20 0 1 3 7 11 14 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Furman 23% 23% 0% 15 Negligible 1 5 9 8 1 77
East Tennessee St. 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 8 2 85
Western Carolina 18% 18% 0% Negligible 2 6 9 2 82
Samford 11% 11% 0% Negligible 1 2 6 2 89
Tennessee Tech 9% 9% 0% Negligible 1 5 3 91
Mercer 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 4 3 92
Wofford 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 94
Chattanooga 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 96
UNC Greensboro 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 96
VMI 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
The Citadel 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 74% 0.7 26 74 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6 0
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 23% 5% 21% 2%
East Tennessee St. 15% 8% 11% 1%
Western Carolina 18% 7% 15% 1%
Samford 11% 6% 8%
Tennessee Tech 9% 6% 5%
Mercer 8% 6% 5%
Wofford 6% 4% 3%
Chattanooga 4% 3% 2%
UNC Greensboro 4% 3% 2%
VMI 1% 1% 1%
The Citadel 1% 1%