Summit League
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
St. Thomas 32%   15   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +1.0 140 C+ +2 117 C- -1 194 +12 23 0 1
North Dakota St. 25%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -0.4 159 C +0 162 C +0 168 0 137 0 1
South Dakota St. 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.1 231 C- -1 202 D+ -3 259 0 137 0 1
South Dakota 8%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.6 276 C- -3 246 D -4 309 0 137 0 1
UMKC 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.0 281 D+ -3 270 D -4 299 +2 111 0 1
Nebraska Omaha 7%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.2 288 D+ -4 291 D+ -3 275 0 137 0 1
Oral Roberts 7%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.4 293 D+ -3 268 D -4 311 -9 328 0 1
North Dakota 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.0 325 D -5 303 D- -5 341 0 131 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 44 Creighton 76 281 UMKC 61   
Mon, Nov 2 57 Minnesota 85 325 North Dakota 50   
Mon, Nov 2 235 Presbyterian 78 140 St. Thomas 87   
Mon, Nov 2 143 Central Arkansas 85 293 Oral Roberts 55   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 99 Kansas St. 84 231 South Dakota St. 71 88%   
Wed, Nov 4 159 North Dakota St. 62 88 St. Mary's 73 83%   
Wed, Nov 4 194 Northern Kentucky 78 276 South Dakota 76 54%   
Fri, Nov 6 57 Minnesota 74 140 St. Thomas 62 88%   
Fri, Nov 6 24 BYU 90 288 Nebraska Omaha 63 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 159 North Dakota St. 66 149 San Francisco 70 65%   
Fri, Nov 6 281 UMKC 72 193 Southern Illinois 74 56%   
Sat, Nov 7 288 Nebraska Omaha 61 53 Utah St. 82 97%   
Sat, Nov 7 219 Cal St. Fullerton 79 276 South Dakota 80 50%   
Sat, Nov 7 325 North Dakota 74 223 Winthrop 83 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
St. Thomas 2 48% 34% 11% 3% 48 24 13 8 4 2 1 1
North Dakota St. 3 36% 24% 9% 3% 36 26 16 10 6 4 2 1
South Dakota St. 4 15% 8% 5% 2% 15 18 17 15 13 10 8 5
South Dakota 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 12 14 15 16 14 13 9
Oral Roberts 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 11 14 15 15 15 13 11
Nebraska Omaha 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 10 13 15 15 15 14 11
UMKC 5 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 9 12 14 15 16 16 14
North Dakota 6 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 7 11 13 17 20 25

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
St. Thomas 10 - 4 19 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 13 16 18 17 13 6 2
North Dakota St. 9 - 5 16 - 13 0 0 0 1 1 4 6 10 15 18 17 14 9 4 1
South Dakota St. 7 - 7 13 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 16 13 10 6 3 1 0
South Dakota 6 - 8 12 - 16 0 1 3 6 10 15 17 16 13 9 6 3 1 0 0
Oral Roberts 6 - 8 9 - 17 0 1 3 7 11 15 17 16 13 9 5 2 1 0 0
Nebraska Omaha 6 - 8 10 - 16 0 1 3 7 12 16 16 16 13 8 4 2 1 0 0
UMKC 6 - 8 12 - 16 0 2 4 9 13 17 16 15 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
North Dakota 5 - 9 8 - 20 1 4 8 14 17 18 15 11 7 4 1 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
St. Thomas 32% 32% 0% 15 Negligible 1 8 12 10 1 68
North Dakota St. 25% 25% 0% Negligible 2 7 12 4 75
South Dakota St. 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 6 5 87
South Dakota 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 5 92
UMKC 6% 6% 0% Negligible 2 4 94
Nebraska Omaha 7% 7% 0% Negligible 2 4 93
Oral Roberts 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 5 93
North Dakota 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 72% 0.7 28 72 0
2nd Round 6% 0.1 94 6
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 32% 6% 29% 3% 1%
North Dakota St. 25% 12% 20% 2%
South Dakota St. 13% 10% 8%
South Dakota 8% 7% 4%
UMKC 6% 6% 3%
Nebraska Omaha 7% 6% 3%
Oral Roberts 7% 6% 4%
North Dakota 3% 3% 1%