All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Jack Bransford Classic |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Harrison (WL) Invitational |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Highland Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conf. |
New Prairie Sectional |
Chesterton Regional |
New Prairie Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/24 |
8/31 |
9/7 |
9/7 |
9/14 |
9/21 |
9/28 |
10/5 |
10/12 |
10/19 |
10/26 |
| Team Rating |
767 | |
836 |
706 |
671 |
|
708 |
690 |
1,228 |
827 |
841 |
|
|
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
745 |
687 |
639 |
|
671 |
690 |
764 |
827 |
841 |
|
|
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Jack Bransford Classic |
Rudy Skorupa Invitational |
THSB State Preview |
Harrison (WL) Invitational |
Bob Thomas Invitational |
New Prairie Invitational |
Highland Invitational |
Duneland Athletic Conf. |
New Prairie Sectional |
Chesterton Regional |
New Prairie Semi-State |
|---|
| 322 |
Tommy Elwood |
12 |
17:16 |
16:36 |
17:19 |
16:53 |
16:59 |
|
17:06 |
17:01 |
|
17:20 |
17:56 |
17:21 |
17:26 |
| 418 |
Brandon Warren |
11 |
17:27 |
17:18 |
17:43 |
17:14 |
17:01 |
|
17:08 |
17:13 |
|
17:44 |
17:41 |
17:40 |
|
| 709 |
Raphael Maier |
10 |
17:54 |
18:45 |
|
17:57 |
17:14 |
|
17:21 |
17:46 |
|
18:25 |
18:21 |
|
|
| 977 |
Joe Mietzner |
12 |
18:17 |
17:47 |
|
|
|
|
|
18:20 |
|
18:28 |
18:16 |
18:10 |
|
| 1,397 |
Gavin Schaefer |
11 |
18:46 |
18:05 |
19:09 |
18:54 |
|
19:19 |
19:32 |
18:46 |
19:06 |
18:29 |
18:21 |
|
|
| 1,415 |
Nate Shaffer |
12 |
18:48 |
19:07 |
18:11 |
18:18 |
18:33 |
|
18:44 |
19:02 |
19:31 |
18:58 |
18:52 |
|
|
| 1,454 |
Daniel Henson |
10 |
18:51 |
|
18:37 |
18:49 |
18:41 |
|
|
19:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,529 |
Stephan Sulivan |
12 |
18:56 |
18:44 |
18:50 |
19:43 |
|
18:32 |
18:51 |
18:57 |
18:59 |
19:01 |
|
|
|
| 1,537 |
Nick Powell |
10 |
18:56 |
|
18:42 |
|
18:50 |
|
18:46 |
18:54 |
19:12 |
19:11 |
|
|
|
| 1,539 |
Chase Reyes |
9 |
18:56 |
|
18:44 |
18:43 |
18:50 |
|
19:03 |
19:21 |
18:44 |
19:09 |
|
|
|
| 1,563 |
Ethan Miller |
9 |
18:58 |
|
20:12 |
18:31 |
|
19:02 |
18:36 |
18:51 |
19:24 |
18:32 |
19:23 |
|
|
|
Ethan Howard |
10 |
19:04 |
|
18:52 |
|
|
|
19:15 |
18:23 |
20:01 |
19:01 |
|
|
|
|
Ethan Weiler |
9 |
19:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
19:25 |
19:49 |
19:37 |
|
|
|
|
Blake Helton |
12 |
20:43 |
|
20:42 |
21:34 |
|
21:05 |
18:52 |
21:06 |
20:38 |
20:36 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
17.7% |
14.3 |
373 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
31.7% |
5.5 |
153 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.2 |
17.5 |
12.2 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
5.7 |
164 |
|
|
|
0.1 |
31.6 |
66.1 |
2.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Tommy Elwood |
2.2% |
142.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.2% |
2.2% |
| Brandon Warren |
0.1% |
151.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Tommy Elwood |
97.2% |
60.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
96.6% |
97.2% |
| Brandon Warren |
82.8% |
73.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
79.1% |
82.2% |
| Raphael Maier |
20.6% |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.5% |
7.0% |
| Joe Mietzner |
17.7% |
129.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Gavin Schaefer |
17.7% |
155.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Nate Shaffer |
17.7% |
156.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Stephan Sulivan |
17.7% |
161.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Tommy Elwood |
100% |
23.9 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
6.1 |
7.4 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Brandon Warren |
100% |
28.8 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
100.0% |
100.0% |
| Raphael Maier |
98.6% |
40.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
98.0% |
98.6% |
| Joe Mietzner |
56.6% |
47.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
36.4% |
47.7% |
| Gavin Schaefer |
31.7% |
55.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
1.3% |
| Nate Shaffer |
31.7% |
55.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.9% |
| Stephan Sulivan |
31.7% |
58.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.2% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Tommy Elwood |
21.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
8.1 |
9.6 |
10.9 |
10.5 |
9.7 |
6.8 |
| Brandon Warren |
25.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
8.6 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
| Raphael Maier |
33.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Joe Mietzner |
38.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gavin Schaefer |
45.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Nate Shaffer |
46.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Stephan Sulivan |
48.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
