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State Rank #88
New Prairie Semi-State Rank: #19
Chesterton Regional Rank #7
New Prairie Sectional Rank #7
Most Likely Finish 6th place at Sectionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conf. New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24
Team Rating 732 721 860 659 746 736 776 722 720 782
Team Adjusted Rating 721 809 659 746 736 776 722 720 782
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Jack Bransford Classic Rudy Skorupa Invitational Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Highland Invitational Duneland Athletic Conf. New Prairie Sectional Chesterton Regional New Prairie Semi-State
430  Brandon Warren 12 17:32 17:12 17:06 19:42 17:57 17:32 17:28 17:32 17:19 17:09 17:48 17:51
614  Ethan Weiler 10 17:52 18:59 17:15 17:25 17:21 17:34 18:12 17:59 18:03 17:58 18:15
631  Chase Reyes 10 17:53 18:19 18:44 18:04 17:40 17:53 17:47 18:19 18:10 17:58 17:50 17:40
686  Ethan Miller 10 17:58 18:20 18:00 18:13 17:28 18:06 18:09 18:04 17:47 17:59 17:59
690  Ethan Mikhail-Keehn 12 17:59 18:36 17:52 18:25 17:51 17:52 17:48 18:00 17:59
771  Raphael Maier 11 18:07 17:30 18:02 18:11
1,032  Nick Powell 11 18:28 18:30 18:31 18:37 18:05 18:19 18:23 18:32 18:28 18:35 18:33
1,142  Ethan Howard 11 18:36 18:38 18:24 18:29 18:22 18:40 18:32 18:22 18:40 19:21
1,143  Gavin Schaefer 12 18:36 18:30 18:21 18:44 18:32 18:28 18:20 18:50 18:51 18:38
1,360  Owen Pittman 12 18:52 18:23 18:42 18:43 18:55 18:41 18:53 20:08
Noah Bosstel 9 19:11 19:35 19:18 19:23 19:22 18:56 18:52




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0%
Regionals 100% 5.3 131 0.5 4.2 11.5 31.4 52.1 0.5
Sectionals 100% 5.1 129 1.3 5.9 20.9 28.0 43.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Brandon Warren 95.1% 73.0 95.1% 95.1%
Ethan Weiler 27.9% 91.0 27.9% 27.9%
Chase Reyes 25.4% 92.8 25.4% 25.4%
Ethan Miller 11.1% 99.3 11.1% 11.1%
Ethan Mikhail-Keehn 10.0% 98.4 10.0% 10.0%
Raphael Maier 1.2% 108.8 1.2% 1.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Brandon Warren 100% 20.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.7 5.2 7.3 8.3 9.8 9.9 8.5 8.8 6.9 6.5 4.0 100.0%
Ethan Weiler 100% 32.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.2 2.9 3.1 4.1 100.0%
Chase Reyes 100% 33.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.7 2.8 3.2 100.0%
Ethan Miller 100% 37.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.5 100.0%
Ethan Mikhail-Keehn 100% 37.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 99.9%
Raphael Maier 100% 43.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.0%
Nick Powell 100% 52.9 78.8%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Brandon Warren 16.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.8 2.1 5.4 12.3 15.3 13.7 11.2 9.7 6.9 5.7 4.7 3.6 2.3 2.0 1.2
Ethan Weiler 25.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.8 5.2 6.0 6.8 6.4 6.5
Chase Reyes 25.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.5 4.0 5.1 6.1 5.9 6.2 7.0
Ethan Miller 29.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.0 3.2 4.3 4.5
Ethan Mikhail-Keehn 30.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.8 2.4 4.0 4.5 3.8
Raphael Maier 34.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7
Nick Powell 41.9 0.1