Danville
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #118
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank: #35
Ben Davis Regional Rank: #9
South Putnam Sectional Rank #9
Most Likely Finish 9th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 0.0%
Advance to Regional 95.1%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating THSB State Preview Ben Davis Invitational Golden Spike Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Sagamore Conference Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 987 944 1,041 1,224 992 951 1,156
Team Adjusted Rating 843 1,041 1,063 992 951 975
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating THSB State Preview Ben Davis Invitational Golden Spike Invitational Golden Bear Invitational Sagamore Conference Brownsburg Sectional Ben Davis Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
302  Natalie Dayharsh 12 20:43 20:59 20:52 20:42 20:37 20:20 20:55 21:01 20:27 20:52
890  Keely Watts 12 22:19 22:12 22:26 22:29 22:15
1,104  Halle Walker 9 22:47 21:52 23:30 24:09 22:41 22:17 22:35 23:07
1,119  Izzy Flick 9 22:49 21:56 24:02 22:59 22:33
Olivia Pell 9 23:35 24:00 23:37 24:04 23:45 23:17 23:11
Rachel Clark 11 23:39 23:14 22:50 23:07 24:06 23:46 23:39 24:08
Jenna Conrad 10 24:21 24:14 24:09 24:06 26:03 24:36 24:00 24:15
Erin Seders 11 24:33 24:09 24:03 25:01 25:01 24:13




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 0.0%
Regionals 95.1% 8.9 235 1.0 19.4 60.7 14.0
Sectionals 100% 5.0 155 2.8 92.3 4.8 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Dayharsh 99.4% 84.6 99.4% 99.4%
Keely Watts 0.0% 139.5 0.1% 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Dayharsh 100% 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.4 3.8 5.0 6.6 7.7 100.0% 100.0%
Keely Watts 100.0% 52.2 99.6% 99.8%
Halle Walker 98.2% 63.6 62.1% 85.4%
Izzy Flick 97.9% 64.7 55.8% 82.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Dayharsh 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.2 4.3 5.6 8.4 12.3 16.4 15.0 11.4 8.2 5.3 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Keely Watts 28.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.6
Halle Walker 34.2 0.1 0.1
Izzy Flick 34.8 0.0 0.0