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State Rank #12
New Haven Semi-State Rank: #3
West Noble Regional Rank: #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 13th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 1.7%
Top 10 at State Finals 32.2%
Advance to State Finals 92.7%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/2
Team Rating 273 315 317 327 290 248 296 322 316 275 268
Team Adjusted Rating 315 315 303 290 248 296 322 316 275 268
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington North Invitational Penn Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
14  Julia Dvorak 12 18:46 18:52 19:06 19:16 18:39 19:02 18:59 19:07 18:57 19:03 18:51 18:38
27  Amelia Faber 10 18:58 19:17 19:01 19:05 18:50 19:08 19:02 19:11 19:02 18:52 19:00 18:50
172  Angelina Sedlaczek 12 20:12 19:58 20:04 20:07 20:18 19:59 19:43 20:00 20:13 20:38 20:16 20:32
174  Reagan Albers 9 20:12 20:46 20:43 21:13 20:20 20:05 20:30 20:42 20:35 20:28 20:03
328  Kyra Andersen 12 20:48 21:36 21:48 21:22 21:34 21:04 21:58 20:34 20:42
355  Elise Peckinpaugh 9 20:54 21:09 21:01 20:49 20:54 21:02 20:51 21:03 20:43 20:54
413  Skylar Kiess 12 21:06 20:15 20:56 20:51 21:07 20:58 21:26 20:48 21:06 21:45
420  Heidi Warner 11 21:07 22:09 21:30 21:10 21:16 20:55 20:39 20:52 21:41
498  Claire Weidler 11 21:22 21:59 21:44 21:13 21:55 20:55 21:08 21:14
624  Audrey Gardner 9 21:44 21:29 21:53 21:54 21:45 21:35 21:52
782  Gabrielle Kiess 9 22:06 22:42 22:26 22:39 21:50 21:58 21:44
1,018  Kiera Hunter 10 22:37 23:11 23:09 22:47 22:37 22:49 22:31 22:14
1,113  Annie Rose Rondot 11 22:48 22:21 22:48 23:09 22:55
1,121  Payton Schaefer 10 22:49 22:51
1,379  Emily McLaughlin 12 23:22 23:16 22:53 23:02 22:55 23:28 23:48 23:51
Katelyn Tilbury 9 23:59 23:35 23:50 24:13 24:17 24:07 23:51
Chloe Johnson 12 24:13 22:43 23:56 23:37 24:02 23:51 24:53 24:55




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 92.7% 11.8 322 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.8 7.9 9.4 10.1 11.1 11.2 9.9 7.3 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 4.3 156 0.0 4.4 29.8 29.3 18.4 10.7 5.4 1.7 0.2
Regionals 100% 2.5 77 0.0 59.4 30.8 9.8
Sectionals 100% 2.5 71 0.1 58.0 31.7 10.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 99.8% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.5 96.6% 99.6%
Amelia Faber 98.8% 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.3 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.0 83.1% 97.1%
Angelina Sedlaczek 92.7% 124.0 0.0% 0.6%
Reagan Albers 92.7% 123.9 0.0% 0.7%
Kyra Andersen 92.7% 167.6 0.0% 0.0%
Elise Peckinpaugh 92.7% 173.2 0.0% 0.0%
Skylar Kiess 92.7% 182.3 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 100% 6.6 0.0 2.3 8.1 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.3 9.2 7.8 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Amelia Faber 100% 10.5 0.2 1.5 3.2 4.5 5.8 7.2 7.4 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.3 6.4 5.6 4.7 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 100.0%
Angelina Sedlaczek 100% 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 96.5%
Reagan Albers 100% 43.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 96.7%
Kyra Andersen 100% 82.0 38.3%
Elise Peckinpaugh 100% 87.7 26.2%
Skylar Kiess 100% 98.6 10.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 100% 4.4 0.0 2.9 17.2 21.2 20.4 15.7 10.5 7.8 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Amelia Faber 100% 6.4 0.4 3.6 8.4 13.3 17.1 18.1 15.9 17.4 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Angelina Sedlaczek 100% 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 4.6 7.2 7.7 7.9 8.0 7.0 7.3 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.4 4.0 100.0%
Reagan Albers 100% 17.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.1 4.1 7.0 8.2 7.9 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.7 5.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.4 3.5 100.0%
Kyra Andersen 100% 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.0 96.4%
Elise Peckinpaugh 100% 37.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 93.3%
Skylar Kiess 100% 41.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 81.2%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Julia Dvorak 3.9 0.0 2.9 22.1 27.3 20.7 12.6 9.5 4.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Amelia Faber 5.6 0.0 0.5 4.3 12.1 20.3 21.3 16.9 18.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Angelina Sedlaczek 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 5.0 8.3 9.8 10.1 10.4 9.7 8.0 7.7 6.0 5.5 4.2 3.6 2.5 1.7 1.4
Reagan Albers 15.4 0.1 1.2 2.2 4.9 8.3 9.4 10.0 9.9 9.4 8.2 7.1 6.6 5.4 4.4 4.0 2.7 2.1 1.5
Kyra Andersen 28.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.0 3.9 4.5 5.4 5.8
Elise Peckinpaugh 30.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.4 4.4
Skylar Kiess 34.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3