Mt. Vernon (Fortville)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #96
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank: #28
Rushville Regional Rank: #3
New Palestine Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 18th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 0.0%
Advance to Semi-State 99.8%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Meister Family Memorial Run Pendleton Heights Arabian Round-Up Marion Invitational Randolph Southern Invitational Muncie Central Invitational Hancock County Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conf. Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/24 8/28 9/7 9/14 9/17 9/24 9/28 10/5 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 864 738 736 765 902 862 830 906 1,057 891 944 907
Team Adjusted Rating 738 736 731 902 862 830 906 984 845 944 907
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Meister Family Memorial Run Pendleton Heights Arabian Round-Up Marion Invitational Randolph Southern Invitational Muncie Central Invitational Hancock County Golden Bear Invitational Hoosier Heritage Conf. Mt. Vernon (Fortville) Sectional Rushville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
723  Lydia Carrell 10 21:58 21:44 21:34 21:41 21:35 22:47 21:24 21:48 22:28 22:38 21:53 22:44 21:43
733  Esther Parham 11 22:00 22:37 21:39 22:10 22:14 22:48 22:17 22:16 23:01 21:47 21:37 22:14
747  Rilee Hartman 12 22:01 21:39 21:17 21:17 21:10 21:49 22:43 22:24 21:55 22:02 22:45
757  Victoria Jenson 9 22:02 22:06 21:31 21:43 22:17 21:56 21:28 22:30 21:42 22:21 22:36 22:10
814  Kamryn Eason 12 22:10 22:50 21:56 21:26 22:34 22:47 21:37 21:39 22:36 22:51 21:51 22:32 22:05
977  Melinda Cornelius 9 22:30 21:40 22:23 21:30 21:43 22:28 22:35 21:57 23:14 22:53 23:01 23:03
1,213  Morgan Tharp 10 23:00 22:29 22:29 22:43 23:22 24:18 23:22 22:17 23:14 22:47 23:42 22:43
Abby Worley 11 23:43 23:16 23:36 23:20 23:26 24:04 24:02
Tessa Freeman 12 25:12 25:32 24:59 23:45 24:10 25:01 26:04 26:15




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 0.0%
Semi-State 99.8% 18.8 538 0.5 43.3 33.4 22.6
Regionals 100.0% 3.6 109 52.0 32.0 15.8 0.2
Sectionals 100% 3.7 107 0.0 49.9 33.5 16.6 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team made it.



Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lydia Carrell 99.8% 142.4 0.0% 29.1%
Esther Parham 99.8% 143.5 0.0% 27.2%
Rilee Hartman 99.8% 144.6 0.0% 25.7%
Victoria Jenson 99.8% 146.0 0.0% 22.7%
Kamryn Eason 99.8% 151.6 0.0% 11.6%
Melinda Cornelius 99.8% 161.6 0.0% 1.2%
Morgan Tharp 99.8% 171.9 0.0% 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lydia Carrell 100% 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.9 4.6 4.8 100.0% 100.0%
Esther Parham 100% 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.5 100.0% 100.0%
Rilee Hartman 100% 29.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.3 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 100.0% 100.0%
Victoria Jenson 100% 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 100.0% 100.0%
Kamryn Eason 100% 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.6 100.0% 100.0%
Melinda Cornelius 100% 42.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 100.0% 100.0%
Morgan Tharp 100.0% 51.2 0.0% 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lydia Carrell 19.5 0.3 1.0 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.5
Esther Parham 20.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.2 5.4
Rilee Hartman 20.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.1
Victoria Jenson 21.2 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.3 2.5 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.2 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.3
Kamryn Eason 24.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.4 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.5
Melinda Cornelius 30.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.7 2.3 3.0
Morgan Tharp 37.3 0.0 0.0 0.1