North Central (Indpls)
Boys - Girls
2018 - 2019 - 2020
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State Rank #23
Shelbyville Semi-State Rank: #10
Noblesville Regional Rank: #7
Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Rank #7
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Regionals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.3%
Advance to State Finals 3.4%
Advance to Semi-State 6.7%
Advance to Regional 99.7%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County North Central JV Invitational Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
Date 8/24 9/7 9/14 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/8 10/12 10/19 10/26
Team Rating 350 369 313 303 681 308 334 381 949 371 344
Team Adjusted Rating 369 313 303 350 308 334 381 350 371 344
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Zionsville Early Bird (4k) Marion Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Ben Davis Invitational RH Flashrock Invitational Metro Interscholastic Conf. Marion County North Central JV Invitational Brebeuf Jesuit Sectional Noblesville Regional Shelbyville Semi-State
113  Ellen Baker 11 19:52 19:38 20:04 19:45 19:41 19:39 19:53 19:54 19:59 19:51 20:02
154  Lauren Botts 9 20:07 20:12 19:47 20:09 19:58 20:04 20:27 20:06 20:08
165  Rahiwa Tezera 10 20:10 20:02 20:23 20:03 20:03 19:52 20:06 20:04 20:47 20:13
236  Sophia Tipmore 9 20:27 21:16 20:22 19:52 20:04 20:09 21:08 20:39 20:24
253  Margot Grotland 9 20:33 20:06 20:17 20:14 20:33 20:33 20:56 20:46 20:34
279  Mary Edwards 9 20:38 20:47 20:24 20:25 21:14 21:16 20:42 20:18 20:26
303  Jane Hirschman 12 20:43 20:56 21:03 20:33 20:53 20:52 20:40 20:33 20:43
398  Gabby Green 12 21:02 21:10 21:04 20:39 20:54 21:07 21:08 21:15
461  Emma Vatnsdal 9 21:13 20:59 21:11 21:55 20:51 21:26 21:10
505  Anna Youtsey 9 21:24 21:27 21:34 21:08 21:25 21:28 21:23
573  Aranshi Tezera 12 21:36 22:00 21:35 21:24 21:51 21:16 21:48
670  Raionce Rodney 10 21:51 22:46 22:29 21:48 21:35 21:44 21:59 21:39 22:12
738  Caleigh Brewer 12 22:00 21:39 21:53 21:45 21:47 21:48 22:08 22:40
752  Margaret Robinson 12 22:01 22:03
776  Mia Rivas 9 22:05 21:08 21:55 21:22 21:58 23:14 22:31
801  Adrianne Jackson 10 22:09 20:23 22:24 21:23 21:27 22:52 21:55 23:04
918  Zoe Munn 10 22:23 22:01 22:24 22:00 21:55 22:28 23:03
937  Reagan Shaar 10 22:25 21:38 21:09 23:12 22:33 22:23 22:21 22:30
1,028  Eleanor Hostetler 9 22:38 22:56 22:17 22:43 23:15 22:14 22:51 22:24
1,090  Ellen Osterman 10 22:45 21:47 23:04 22:20 22:33 22:30 22:56 23:09
1,300  Micah Taylor 9 23:12 23:51 22:25 23:18 23:54 22:52 22:58 23:34
1,370  Jaida Sanders 12 23:20 23:18 23:09 23:14 22:45 26:02
Jacquelyn Harvey 12 23:52 23:49 23:51 23:23 24:30
Claudia Lausch 9 23:56 23:54 23:16 23:59 23:50 24:36
Emily Eder 10 24:35 23:35 24:21 25:14 25:12 24:46 24:16




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 3.4% 11.3 318 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Semi-State 6.7% 6.4 189 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Regionals 99.7% 7.0 166 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.9 23.7 30.7 38.1 0.5
Sectionals 100% 4.2 92 0.4 2.5 9.9 54.2 32.7 0.3



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellen Baker 5.0% 70.8 0.0 1.7% 2.1%
Lauren Botts 3.4% 90.2 0.0% 0.1%
Rahiwa Tezera 3.4% 92.7 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Tipmore 3.4% 117.8 0.0% 0.0%
Margot Grotland 3.4% 126.5 0.0% 0.0%
Mary Edwards 3.4% 132.6 0.0% 0.0%
Jane Hirschman 3.4% 141.6 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellen Baker 74.6% 44.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 72.8% 74.4%
Lauren Botts 34.9% 52.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 30.2% 32.9%
Rahiwa Tezera 27.2% 53.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0% 24.6%
Sophia Tipmore 8.4% 61.9 1.9% 2.8%
Margot Grotland 7.3% 65.2 0.6% 0.9%
Mary Edwards 7.0% 68.8 0.3% 0.5%
Jane Hirschman 6.8% 73.5 0.1% 0.1%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellen Baker 100% 27.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.5 100.0% 100.0%
Lauren Botts 100% 34.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 100.0% 100.0%
Rahiwa Tezera 100% 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 100.0% 100.0%
Sophia Tipmore 100% 44.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 100.0% 100.0%
Margot Grotland 100% 46.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Mary Edwards 100% 48.4 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%
Jane Hirschman 100% 50.7 0.0 0.0 100.0% 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ellen Baker 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 5.6 9.7 12.4 14.2 12.5 11.4 9.0 7.2 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
Lauren Botts 16.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.2 7.7 9.8 10.4 10.1 10.4 9.9 8.0 6.9 5.1 3.7 2.4 1.9 0.9
Rahiwa Tezera 16.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.8 8.1 8.4 10.2 10.8 10.1 9.7 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.7 2.4 1.5
Sophia Tipmore 22.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.9 5.0 6.5 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 9.6 8.6
Margot Grotland 24.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 7.0 8.2 8.7 10.1 9.8
Mary Edwards 25.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.2 5.0 6.1 7.5 8.8 9.8
Jane Hirschman 26.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.6 4.8 6.3 8.2