Warsaw
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #35
New Prairie Semi-State Rank: #8
Logansport Regional Rank: #2
Manchester Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 8th place at Semi-State
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 0.0%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Warsaw Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational NLC Round Robin New Prairie Invitational Zebra Stampede Northern Lakes Conference Manchester Sectional Logansport Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/25 9/1 9/5 9/12 9/17 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 449 476 480 459 458 496 555 458 482 513 402 478
Team Adjusted Rating 476 480 459 446 496 512 458 480 492 402 478
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Warsaw Invitational Northern Lakes Conference Marion Invitational Wildcat Classic Invitational NLC Round Robin New Prairie Invitational Zebra Stampede Northern Lakes Conference Manchester Sectional Logansport Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
125  Wini Barnett 11 19:57 19:27 20:03 20:10 19:36 19:28 20:36 20:26 20:10 19:51 20:29 19:56 19:49
259  Ava Knight 11 20:32 19:53 20:24 20:10 20:42 20:41 20:37 20:46 20:10 21:00 20:46 20:17 21:02
275  Regan Brouwer 11 20:35 21:11 20:39 20:13 20:43 20:12 20:45 20:58 20:13 20:28 20:47 20:20 20:52
325  Adree Beckham 12 20:47 20:39 22:09 21:13 21:33 21:26 21:31 21:13 21:19 20:33 20:38
474  Elizabeth Vander Bie 9 21:14 22:00 21:21 20:46 21:05 21:42 21:21 21:08 21:15 21:10
481  Erika Bugg 10 21:16 20:33 21:05 21:55 21:22 21:27 21:01 21:20 21:55 21:00 21:08 21:04 21:14
554  Marrisa Howett 9 21:28 21:21 21:32 21:24 21:55 21:16 21:32 21:17 21:17 21:14 21:59
582  Amanda Lusinde 11 21:34 20:46 21:31 21:10 21:55 21:12 21:10 21:10 23:15
637  Whitney Shepherd 12 21:42 22:15 21:26 22:06 22:08 21:39 21:33 21:30 22:06 21:48
986  Lillian Boston 12 22:33 22:33 22:31 22:21 22:38 22:28 22:51 22:47 22:21
1,180  Macelyn Marcuccilli 11 22:57 21:20 21:50 23:28 22:57 22:59 23:02 23:28
1,257  Mikayla Mimnaugh 10 23:08 21:03 22:54 23:04 23:44 22:57 23:04
1,347  Isabelle Herman 9 23:20 23:10 23:55 23:10
1,395  Izzy Hermann 23:25 23:25
1,399  Florencia Viera 12 23:26 23:13 23:52 22:43 24:08 23:17 23:29 22:43
Kirra Morgan 9 23:34 23:30 23:13 23:39 23:24 23:46 24:59 23:13




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 23.3 552 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.0 3.1 6.2 13.2 71.4
Semi-State 100% 8.2 232 0.2 0.7 2.1 4.5 7.7 11.6 14.5 15.0 13.4 10.9 8.3 5.8 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.6 57 40.8 55.2 4.0
Sectionals 100% 1.7 43 36.3 56.8 6.9



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wini Barnett 100% 100.6 16.1%
Ava Knight 100% 148.5 0.2%
Regan Brouwer 100% 153.1 0.1%
Adree Beckham 100% 167.1 0.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 185.8 0.0%
Erika Bugg 100% 186.5 0.0%
Marrisa Howett 100% 192.2 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wini Barnett 100% 21.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 3.1 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.3 100.0%
Ava Knight 100% 50.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 100.0%
Regan Brouwer 100% 53.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 99.9%
Adree Beckham 100% 67.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 96.1 77.6%
Erika Bugg 100% 97.0 75.1%
Marrisa Howett 100% 109.1 49.5%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wini Barnett 100% 5.4 0.2 3.7 10.6 21.1 33.3 15.1 7.7 4.0 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Ava Knight 100% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.5 8.3 10.0 10.6 11.3 11.8 11.6 8.6 6.5 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Regan Brouwer 100% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.5 8.1 9.4 10.6 11.1 11.2 10.4 8.6 5.9 5.1 3.1 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 100.0%
Adree Beckham 100% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.8 8.0 9.7 11.0 11.1 9.4 8.3 6.2 4.8 3.6 2.9 2.0 1.4 0.7 100.0%
Elizabeth Vander Bie 100% 23.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.8 3.1 4.3 5.6 5.9 7.5 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.4 100.0%
Erika Bugg 100% 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.1 2.7 3.9 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.7 7.4 7.8 7.7 100.0%
Marrisa Howett 100% 28.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Wini Barnett 2.7 9.2 60.7 17.3 7.0 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ava Knight 7.2 0.0 0.7 8.4 11.6 12.1 14.7 15.1 14.7 11.6 6.9 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Regan Brouwer 7.8 0.4 5.2 8.2 11.3 12.9 14.2 15.2 15.3 9.9 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adree Beckham 10.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 5.4 7.8 11.6 15.7 22.1 17.1 8.5 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elizabeth Vander Bie 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 8.3 15.0 18.4 16.4 13.6 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Erika Bugg 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.7 7.3 13.4 15.8 17.1 14.7 12.2 8.3 4.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Marrisa Howett 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.7 10.3 14.5 16.9 18.5 15.4 7.4 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0