Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Indiana 100.0%   1   27 - 6 14 - 4 27 - 6 14 - 4 +20.0      +13.3 1 +6.8 27 73.1 56 +17.8 5 +18.9 1
7 Ohio St. 100.0%   2   26 - 7 13 - 5 26 - 7 13 - 5 +16.6      +8.1 22 +8.5 10 64.9 230 +17.6 7 +17.4 3
9 Michigan 100.0%   3   25 - 7 12 - 6 25 - 7 12 - 6 +16.1      +12.4 2 +3.7 77 64.2 249 +16.9 10 +15.6 4
10 Michigan St. 100.0%   3   24 - 8 13 - 5 24 - 8 13 - 5 +15.6      +7.3 28 +8.2 11 64.5 242 +17.0 9 +18.1 2
14 Wisconsin 100.0%   5   23 - 11 12 - 6 23 - 11 12 - 6 +15.1      +3.7 78 +11.4 2 59.7 314 +14.4 16 +15.1 5
27 Minnesota 99.2%   8   20 - 12 8 - 10 20 - 12 8 - 10 +12.4      +6.4 36 +6.0 34 65.2 226 +11.6 36 +9.5 8
36 Iowa 28.3%   21 - 12 9 - 9 21 - 12 9 - 9 +11.4      +3.9 72 +7.5 18 72.5 68 +9.8 51 +10.0 6
48 Illinois 97.9%   8   21 - 12 8 - 10 21 - 12 8 - 10 +10.0      +5.4 53 +4.6 56 67.8 162 +12.4 30 +9.5 9
73 Purdue 0.0%   15 - 17 8 - 10 15 - 17 8 - 10 +7.0      +1.4 136 +5.6 41 69.3 130 +5.6 88 +9.8 7
123 Nebraska 0.0%   15 - 18 5 - 13 15 - 18 5 - 13 +2.9      +0.2 171 +2.7 98 59.3 319 +6.0 84 +5.2 10
125 Northwestern 0.0%   13 - 19 4 - 14 13 - 19 4 - 14 +2.7      +1.5 135 +1.2 135 59.3 317 +3.7 115 +3.4 11
143 Penn St. 0.0%   10 - 21 2 - 16 10 - 21 2 - 16 +1.6      +0.4 164 +1.1 137 65.9 209 +1.6 150 -2.1 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Indiana 1.0 100.0
Ohio St. 2.0 100.0
Michigan 4.0 100.0
Michigan St. 2.0 100.0
Wisconsin 4.0 100.0
Minnesota 7.0 100.0
Iowa 6.0 100.0
Illinois 7.0 100.0
Purdue 7.0 100.0
Nebraska 10.0 100.0
Northwestern 11.0 100.0
Penn St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Indiana 14 - 4 100.0
Ohio St. 13 - 5 100.0
Michigan 12 - 6 100.0
Michigan St. 13 - 5 100.0
Wisconsin 12 - 6 100.0
Minnesota 8 - 10 100.0
Iowa 9 - 9 100.0
Illinois 8 - 10 100.0
Purdue 8 - 10 100.0
Nebraska 5 - 13 100.0
Northwestern 4 - 14 100.0
Penn St. 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Indiana 100.0% 100.0
Ohio St.
Michigan
Michigan St.
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Illinois
Purdue
Nebraska
Northwestern
Penn St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   59.4 35.4 5.2 0.1 100.0%
Ohio St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   18.1 38.3 39.4 4.2 0.0
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   0.5 2.4 40.1 45.6 11.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   12.4 29.5 49.6 8.4 0.1 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 0.1 9.7 37.1 43.8 8.9 0.4 100.0%
Minnesota 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 8   0.2 3.0 19.3 44.0 25.4 6.7 0.6 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Iowa 28.3% 0.0% 28.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.2 23.9 0.9 71.7 28.3%
Illinois 97.9% 0.0% 97.9% 8   0.0 0.8 7.3 32.4 35.8 17.9 3.5 0.1 2.1 97.9%
Purdue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Indiana 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 76.1% 55.2% 36.8% 22.9% 13.5%
Ohio St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.4% 60.7% 35.1% 17.9% 8.7% 3.9%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.4% 55.4% 27.8% 14.2% 6.8% 2.9%
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.0% 57.1% 30.0% 14.1% 6.2% 2.6%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 75.6% 45.2% 20.0% 9.3% 4.0% 1.7%
Minnesota 99.2% 0.0% 99.2% 53.4% 17.3% 7.9% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Iowa 28.3% 24.9% 18.3% 8.1% 3.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Illinois 97.9% 0.1% 97.8% 41.6% 9.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Purdue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.3 0.0 2.0 70.7 27.3
1st Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 2.4 80.0 17.6
2nd Round 100.0% 5.4 0.0 0.3 3.0 14.3 34.0 35.7 11.9 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 99.3% 3.3 0.7 5.1 19.0 33.6 28.6 11.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 91.8% 1.8 8.2 30.4 38.5 18.7 3.9 0.3 0.0
Final Four 71.4% 1.0 28.6 48.6 20.2 2.4 0.1
Final Game 45.5% 0.5 54.5 41.0 4.5
Champion 25.0% 0.3 75.0 25.0