Pre-tourney Rankings
Pac-12
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
12 UCLA 100.0%   3   29 - 4 15 - 3 29 - 4 15 - 3 +17.8      +13.0 2 +4.8 60 81.6 6 +20.0 6 +18.4 3
14 Oregon 100.0%   3   28 - 5 16 - 2 28 - 5 16 - 2 +17.7      +9.6 18 +8.1 23 67.3 196 +17.9 12 +20.9 2
19 Arizona 100.0%   2   30 - 4 16 - 2 30 - 4 16 - 2 +16.7      +8.8 24 +7.8 24 63.7 273 +21.0 4 +21.0 1
48 Utah 1.3%   18 - 11 11 - 7 18 - 11 11 - 7 +10.9      +7.4 33 +3.5 79 67.8 177 +7.7 72 +9.7 4
57 California 16.1%   21 - 12 10 - 8 21 - 12 10 - 8 +9.5      +0.6 155 +8.9 15 62.2 305 +9.7 57 +9.6 5
58 USC 65.4%   11   24 - 9 10 - 8 24 - 9 10 - 8 +9.3      +5.6 51 +3.7 77 69.9 114 +12.5 37 +9.3 6
72 Colorado 0.0%   18 - 14 8 - 10 18 - 14 8 - 10 +7.7      +5.7 49 +2.0 107 67.0 204 +6.6 80 +5.1 7
95 Stanford 0.0%   13 - 17 6 - 12 13 - 17 6 - 12 +4.8      +1.5 124 +3.2 83 67.8 179 +5.0 98 +3.0 10
114 Arizona St. 0.0%   15 - 18 7 - 11 15 - 18 7 - 11 +3.1      +5.1 55 -2.0 233 73.4 54 +4.1 107 +4.7 8
156 Washington 0.0%   9 - 22 2 - 16 9 - 22 2 - 16 +0.5      +1.8 122 -1.3 205 74.8 38 -2.1 201 -5.7 11
171 Washington St. 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 18 6 - 12 -0.1      0.0 166 -0.1 178 67.8 178 +2.1 124 +4.3 9
236 Oregon St. 0.0%   4 - 27 1 - 17 4 - 27 1 - 17 -4.7      -4.0 273 -0.7 190 60.9 321 -9.9 310 -7.9 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
UCLA 3.0 100.0
Oregon 1.0 100.0
Arizona 1.0 100.0
Utah 4.0 100.0
California 5.0 100.0
USC 5.0 100.0
Colorado 7.0 100.0
Stanford 9.0 100.0
Arizona St. 8.0 100.0
Washington 11.0 100.0
Washington St. 9.0 100.0
Oregon St. 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UCLA 15 - 3 100.0
Oregon 16 - 2 100.0
Arizona 16 - 2 100.0
Utah 11 - 7 100.0
California 10 - 8 100.0
USC 10 - 8 100.0
Colorado 8 - 10 100.0
Stanford 6 - 12 100.0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 100.0
Washington 2 - 16 100.0
Washington St. 6 - 12 100.0
Oregon St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UCLA
Oregon 100.0% 100.0
Arizona 100.0% 100.0
Utah
California
USC
Colorado
Stanford
Arizona St.
Washington
Washington St.
Oregon St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   2.0 13.1 46.0 32.9 5.8 0.3 100.0%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   6.3 26.7 45.8 19.4 1.9 0.0 100.0%
Arizona 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   25.5 55.3 17.9 1.2 0.0
Utah 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3 1.1 0.0 98.7 1.3%
California 16.1% 0.0% 16.1% 0.0 3.4 12.6 0.1 83.9 16.1%
USC 65.4% 0.0% 65.4% 11   0.0 0.2 1.1 6.0 37.3 20.7 0.0 34.6 65.4%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UCLA 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.4% 56.1% 27.3% 12.8% 5.8% 2.4%
Oregon 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.9% 58.5% 29.2% 13.2% 5.8% 2.4%
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 59.1% 29.7% 12.1% 4.7% 1.8%
Utah 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 16.1% 16.0% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
USC 65.4% 52.5% 34.1% 9.6% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 27.3 62.6 10.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.4 60.1 38.0 1.9
2nd Round 100.0% 2.9 0.0 1.1 16.2 73.5 9.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 92.8% 1.8 7.2 30.3 42.0 20.1 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 66.2% 0.9 33.8 47.4 17.2 1.6 0.0
Final Four 34.6% 0.4 65.4 31.1 3.4 0.1
Final Game 15.8% 0.2 84.2 15.4 0.4
Champion 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.6